3853 Potomac St · St. Louis, MO 63116

$255,000

16 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,168 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 119 Days on market

Built 1913 4,726 sqft lot $80/sqft · 21% below area Est $321k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 4 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

— Four family income producing property in Prime Tower Grove South location — Historically strong occupancy; currently 100% — Situated on a corner lot — Opportunity for owner-occupied investment — Professional management in place — Spacious, recently remodeled 1 bedroom/1 bathroom units, averaging 792 sq. ft. — Large kitchen and dining area — Full-masonry brick façade in traditional South City St. Louis architectural style — Recently-replaced windows, electrical panel, pex plumbing, PVC stacks and sewer lateral — Basement with washer/dryer hook ups — Great location, just minutes from Tower Grove Park and South Grand

Key facts

• Corner lot
• 4,726 sq ft lot
• Built 1913

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• RECENTLY REMODELED UNITS
• LARGE KITCHEN AND DINING AREA
• FULL-MASONRY BRICK FAÇADE
• RECENTLY-REPLACED WINDOWS
• MINUTES FROM TOWER GROVE PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4 × 1-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive. Per door: $367/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $255k).
• Recommended offer: $232k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.2% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 260 active listings in the ZIP; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,931/mo this rent would consume 77% of the median local household income ($61k/yr) (locally 1923% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.6% rent growth), your $71k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 119 days — a 9% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $167k; list at $255k implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1913 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,050 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 119 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Built in 1913 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.70%
• DSCR: 2.10
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $321,183
• List price: $255,000
• Delta: -20.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $50,770
• Equity at exit: $38,021

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.22×
• Total profit: $158,571
• Equity at exit: $22,048

Cash invested: $71,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63116

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 260
• Price-to-rent: 21.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,931 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,307/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$826
• Net cashflow: $1,470

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,071

Max offer price $255,000

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,614	-5% $1,542	+0% $1,470	+5% $1,398	+10% $1,325
Rent	-10% $1,159	-5% $1,314	+0% $1,470	+5% $1,625	+10% $1,780
Rate	-1.0pp $1,598	-0.5pp $1,535	base $1,470	+0.5pp $1,404	+1.0pp $1,336

4-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 4× units	1	1	$3,932
Total (4 units)			$3,931

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,750
• Closing costs: $7,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $255,000 Pending 119 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $255,000 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,000 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $255,000 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $255,000 Active 114 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $255,000 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $255,000 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $255,000 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $255,000 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-02-10
    listed $255,000 Active 696-char remark

    Show marketing remark (696 chars)

    — Four family income producing property in Prime Tower Grove South location — Historically strong occupancy; currently 100% — Situated on a corner lot — Opportunity for owner-occupied investment — Professional management in place — Spacious, recently remodeled 1 bedroom/1 bathroom units, averaging 792 sq. ft. — Large kitchen and dining area — Full-masonry brick façade in traditional South City St. Louis architectural style — Recently-replaced windows, electrical panel, pex plumbing, PVC stacks and sewer lateral — Basement with washer/dryer hook ups — Great location, just minutes from Tower Grove Park and South Grand

11. 2025-07-31
    price $219,000
12. 2025-06-17
    price $232,900
13. 2025-06-02
    price $234,900
14. 2025-05-11
    price $239,900
15. 2025-04-18
    status Active
16. 2025-04-05
    status Pending
17. 2025-04-01
    status Active
18. 2025-03-24
    status Pending
19. 2025-03-20
    listed $259,900 Active
20. 2022-08-12
    price $600
21. 2019-08-28
    soldstatus $167,280
22. 2019-08-23
    soldstatus Closed
23. 2019-07-18
    status Pending
24. 2019-07-12
    listed $164,000 Active
25. 2018-05-02
    soldstatus $138,000
26. 2018-04-30
    soldstatus Closed
27. 2018-03-28
    status Pending
28. 2018-03-17
    historical Option
29. 2018-02-25
    listed $140,000 Active
30. 2017-09-01
    price $149,900
31. 2017-07-09
    price $159,900
32. 2012-07-26
    soldstatus
33. 2003-05-12
    soldstatus $84,000
34. 1999-10-04
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,307 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,474 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: +$166/yr (+$14/mo · 7.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,172
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,284
• − Property taxes: −$2,307
• − Insurance: −$1,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,774
• − Management: −$3,774
• − Depreciation: −$7,418
• Taxable income: $14,340
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,442
• After-tax cash flow: $14,195/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 42,170
• Household income: $61,433
• Rent vs Own: 43.1% rent · 56.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1923.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Black 27% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, Philippines
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -271.19%
• Current HPI: 215.7108
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.62%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+363.6% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-10 Listed $255,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-31 Price Changed $219,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $232,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-02 Price Changed $234,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-11 Price Changed $239,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-18 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-05 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-01 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-24 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-20 Listed $259,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-12 Price Changed $600 RENT.
• 2019-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $167,280 Public Records
• 2019-08-23 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-18 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-12 Listed $164,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $138,000 Public Records
• 2018-04-30 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-28 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-03-17 Contingent — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-02-25 Listed $140,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-01 Price Changed $149,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-09 Price Changed $159,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records
• 1999-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,307 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.