11821 East Gate Dr · Conroe, TX 77318

$189,990

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 950 sqft · Land · 174 Days on market

Built 2025 $200/sqft · 38% above area Est $138k · 38% over $69/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.9/30.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Smartly designed and affordably sized, this 950 sq. ft. single-story home offers the perfect balance of function and simplicity. With 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and an optional 1-car garage, it’s ideal for first-time buyers, or anyone seeking a low-maintenance lifestyle. The open-concept layout welcomes you with a spacious family room that flows effortlessly into the dining area and modern kitchen—complete with a central island and ample counter space. Whether you're hosting guests or enjoying a quiet night in, the layout is perfectly suited for both. Three well-sized bedrooms are grouped together for efficiency and comfort, all with easy access to a centrally located full bath. A dedicated laundry area and additional storage add to the everyday practicality of this compact yet comfortable home.

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 2025
• Listed 174 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $196 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.5% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: W Lloyd Meador El (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 617 students, 43% FRL); Robert P Brabham Middle (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,117 students, 52% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1199 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 174 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $167,191 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 174 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.42%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $138,097
• List price: $189,990
• Delta: 37.58%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-23,501
• Equity at exit: $28,328

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-24,494
• Equity at exit: $16,427

Cash invested: $53,197 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1199
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,758 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$49 /mo · $583/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$69
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,510

Max offer price $189,990

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $304	-5% $250	+0% $196	+5% $142	+10% $88
Rent	-10% $57	-5% $127	+0% $196	+5% $265	+10% $335
Rate	-1.0pp $292	-0.5pp $244	base $196	+0.5pp $147	+1.0pp $97

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,498
• Closing costs: $5,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $69 · $828/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-12
   status Pending 816-char remark

   Show marketing remark (816 chars)

   Smartly designed and affordably sized, this 950 sq. ft. single-story home offers the perfect balance of function and simplicity. With 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and an optional 1-car garage, it’s ideal for first-time buyers, or anyone seeking a low-maintenance lifestyle. The open-concept layout welcomes you with a spacious family room that flows effortlessly into the dining area and modern kitchen—complete with a central island and ample counter space. Whether you're hosting guests or enjoying a quiet night in, the layout is perfectly suited for both. Three well-sized bedrooms are grouped together for efficiency and comfort, all with easy access to a centrally located full bath. A dedicated laundry area and additional storage add to the everyday practicality of this compact yet comfortable home.

2. 2026-05-12
   historical Active Under Contract 816-char remark

   Show marketing remark (816 chars)

   Smartly designed and affordably sized, this 950 sq. ft. single-story home offers the perfect balance of function and simplicity. With 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and an optional 1-car garage, it’s ideal for first-time buyers, or anyone seeking a low-maintenance lifestyle. The open-concept layout welcomes you with a spacious family room that flows effortlessly into the dining area and modern kitchen—complete with a central island and ample counter space. Whether you're hosting guests or enjoying a quiet night in, the layout is perfectly suited for both. Three well-sized bedrooms are grouped together for efficiency and comfort, all with easy access to a centrally located full bath. A dedicated laundry area and additional storage add to the everyday practicality of this compact yet comfortable home.

3. 2026-04-17
   price $189,990 816-char remark

   Show marketing remark (816 chars)

   Smartly designed and affordably sized, this 950 sq. ft. single-story home offers the perfect balance of function and simplicity. With 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and an optional 1-car garage, it’s ideal for first-time buyers, or anyone seeking a low-maintenance lifestyle. The open-concept layout welcomes you with a spacious family room that flows effortlessly into the dining area and modern kitchen—complete with a central island and ample counter space. Whether you're hosting guests or enjoying a quiet night in, the layout is perfectly suited for both. Three well-sized bedrooms are grouped together for efficiency and comfort, all with easy access to a centrally located full bath. A dedicated laundry area and additional storage add to the everyday practicality of this compact yet comfortable home.

4. 2026-02-13
   price $194,990 816-char remark

   Show marketing remark (816 chars)

   Smartly designed and affordably sized, this 950 sq. ft. single-story home offers the perfect balance of function and simplicity. With 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and an optional 1-car garage, it’s ideal for first-time buyers, or anyone seeking a low-maintenance lifestyle. The open-concept layout welcomes you with a spacious family room that flows effortlessly into the dining area and modern kitchen—complete with a central island and ample counter space. Whether you're hosting guests or enjoying a quiet night in, the layout is perfectly suited for both. Three well-sized bedrooms are grouped together for efficiency and comfort, all with easy access to a centrally located full bath. A dedicated laundry area and additional storage add to the everyday practicality of this compact yet comfortable home.

5. 2025-12-15
   price $199,990 816-char remark

   Show marketing remark (816 chars)

   Smartly designed and affordably sized, this 950 sq. ft. single-story home offers the perfect balance of function and simplicity. With 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and an optional 1-car garage, it’s ideal for first-time buyers, or anyone seeking a low-maintenance lifestyle. The open-concept layout welcomes you with a spacious family room that flows effortlessly into the dining area and modern kitchen—complete with a central island and ample counter space. Whether you're hosting guests or enjoying a quiet night in, the layout is perfectly suited for both. Three well-sized bedrooms are grouped together for efficiency and comfort, all with easy access to a centrally located full bath. A dedicated laundry area and additional storage add to the everyday practicality of this compact yet comfortable home.

6. 2025-11-19
   listed $204,990 Active 816-char remark

   Show marketing remark (816 chars)

   Smartly designed and affordably sized, this 950 sq. ft. single-story home offers the perfect balance of function and simplicity. With 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and an optional 1-car garage, it’s ideal for first-time buyers, or anyone seeking a low-maintenance lifestyle. The open-concept layout welcomes you with a spacious family room that flows effortlessly into the dining area and modern kitchen—complete with a central island and ample counter space. Whether you're hosting guests or enjoying a quiet night in, the layout is perfectly suited for both. Three well-sized bedrooms are grouped together for efficiency and comfort, all with easy access to a centrally located full bath. A dedicated laundry area and additional storage add to the everyday practicality of this compact yet comfortable home.

7. 2025-11-19
   historical

   Show marketing remark (816 chars)

   Smartly designed and affordably sized, this 950 sq. ft. single-story home offers the perfect balance of function and simplicity. With 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, and an optional 1-car garage, it’s ideal for first-time buyers, or anyone seeking a low-maintenance lifestyle. The open-concept layout welcomes you with a spacious family room that flows effortlessly into the dining area and modern kitchen—complete with a central island and ample counter space. Whether you're hosting guests or enjoying a quiet night in, the layout is perfectly suited for both. Three well-sized bedrooms are grouped together for efficiency and comfort, all with easy access to a centrally located full bath. A dedicated laundry area and additional storage add to the everyday practicality of this compact yet comfortable home.

8. 2025-10-09
   price $208,468
9. 2025-09-03
   price $204,468
10. 2025-08-07
    listed $203,468 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $583 · $49/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,477 · $290/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,894/yr (+$241/mo · 496.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,642
• − Property taxes: −$583
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,688
• − Management: −$1,688
• − HOA: −$828
• − Depreciation: −$5,527
• Taxable loss: −$806
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$193
• After-tax cash flow: $2,546/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 38,421
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 279.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Contingent — HARMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $189,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $194,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-15 Price Changed $199,990 HARMLS
• 2025-11-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-19 Listed $204,990 HARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $208,468 HARMLS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $204,468 HARMLS
• 2025-08-07 Listed $203,468 HARMLS