2915 Arboledas Dr · San Juan, TX 78589

$339,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,967 sqft · Land · 117 Days on market

Built 2026 5,998 sqft lot $173/sqft · 39% above area Est $245k · 39% over $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful upcoming new construction in San Juan, Texas, located in the desirable Plantation Heights subdivision. This thoughtfully designed home offers four bedrooms, three full bathrooms, and a dedicated office space—perfect for remote work and today’s flexible lifestyle. Designed with an open-concept layout, the home features a seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas. The kitchen showcases quartz countertops and a large center island with cooktop, creating a functional and inviting space. The primary suite includes a spacious walk-in closet and a well-appointed bathroom. Additional highlights include an interior laundry room, double attached garage, welcoming front porch, and a covered back patio ideal for relaxing. A must-see property—schedule your viewing today.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Large center island
• New construction

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• PLANTATION HEIGHTS SUBDIVISION
• DEDICATED OFFICE SPACE
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $279k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $279k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 3.4% in San Juan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#294 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #740 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 362 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 43% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 5% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $278,602 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.59%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,142
• List price: $339,900
• Delta: 38.65%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-47,182
• Equity at exit: $50,680

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-31,268
• Equity at exit: $29,388

Cash invested: $95,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78589

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,786 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,782
• Tax from tax record: −$121 /mo · $1,451/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$585
• Net cashflow: $126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,627

Max offer price $339,900

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $318	-5% $222	+0% $126	+5% $30	+10% $-66
Rent	-10% $-94	-5% $16	+0% $126	+5% $236	+10% $346
Rate	-1.0pp $297	-0.5pp $212	base $126	+0.5pp $38	+1.0pp $-52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,975
• Closing costs: $10,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2917 Arboledas Dr San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$3,260	$1.77	15d	1	0.02mi
1606 S Kumquat St Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,350	$0.91	24d	1	0.88mi
1606 Kumquat Ave Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1476	$1,398	$0.95	45d	1	1.00mi
2302 San Pascual St San Juan, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,800	$1.40	45d	1	1.17mi
1305 James Cir Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1525	$1,550	$1.02	24d	1	1.24mi
4000 S Las Nubes Pharr, TX	3.0	2.5	1498	$2,000	$1.34	45d	1	1.42mi
4000 S Las Nubes Pharr, TX	3.0	2.0	1549	$2,000	$1.29	20d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $339,900 Active 117 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $339,900 Active 116 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $339,900 Active 115 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $339,900 Active 114 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $339,900 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $339,900 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $339,900 Active 109 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $339,900 Active 108 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $339,900 Active 107 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $339,900 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $339,900 Active 102 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $339,900 Active 101 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $339,900 Active 100 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,900 Active 99 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $339,900 Active 98 DOM
17. 2026-03-10
    price $339,900 821-char remark

    Show marketing remark (821 chars)

    Beautiful upcoming new construction in San Juan, Texas, located in the desirable Plantation Heights subdivision. This thoughtfully designed home offers four bedrooms, three full bathrooms, and a dedicated office space—perfect for remote work and today’s flexible lifestyle. Designed with an open-concept layout, the home features a seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas. The kitchen showcases quartz countertops and a large center island with cooktop, creating a functional and inviting space. The primary suite includes a spacious walk-in closet and a well-appointed bathroom. Additional highlights include an interior laundry room, double attached garage, welcoming front porch, and a covered back patio ideal for relaxing. A must-see property—schedule your viewing today.

18. 2026-02-21
    listed $325,000 Active 821-char remark

    Show marketing remark (821 chars)

    Beautiful upcoming new construction in San Juan, Texas, located in the desirable Plantation Heights subdivision. This thoughtfully designed home offers four bedrooms, three full bathrooms, and a dedicated office space—perfect for remote work and today’s flexible lifestyle. Designed with an open-concept layout, the home features a seamless flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas. The kitchen showcases quartz countertops and a large center island with cooktop, creating a functional and inviting space. The primary suite includes a spacious walk-in closet and a well-appointed bathroom. Additional highlights include an interior laundry room, double attached garage, welcoming front porch, and a covered back patio ideal for relaxing. A must-see property—schedule your viewing today.

19. 2025-10-01
    soldstatus Sold 422-char remark

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    Build your dream home in Plantation Heights, one of San Juan’s most desirable subdivisions. This 5,998 sq ft residential lot is ideally located just minutes from H-E-B, shopping, restaurants, schools, and with quick access to the expressway. Enjoy a peaceful neighborhood setting with the convenience of everything you need nearby. Don’t miss the opportunity to own a lot in this highly sought-after community.

20. 2025-10-01
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    Build your dream home in Plantation Heights, one of San Juan’s most desirable subdivisions. This 5,998 sq ft residential lot is ideally located just minutes from H-E-B, shopping, restaurants, schools, and with quick access to the expressway. Enjoy a peaceful neighborhood setting with the convenience of everything you need nearby. Don’t miss the opportunity to own a lot in this highly sought-after community.

21. 2025-09-29
    status Pending 422-char remark

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    Build your dream home in Plantation Heights, one of San Juan’s most desirable subdivisions. This 5,998 sq ft residential lot is ideally located just minutes from H-E-B, shopping, restaurants, schools, and with quick access to the expressway. Enjoy a peaceful neighborhood setting with the convenience of everything you need nearby. Don’t miss the opportunity to own a lot in this highly sought-after community.

22. 2025-09-16
    listed $59,600 Active 422-char remark

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    Build your dream home in Plantation Heights, one of San Juan’s most desirable subdivisions. This 5,998 sq ft residential lot is ideally located just minutes from H-E-B, shopping, restaurants, schools, and with quick access to the expressway. Enjoy a peaceful neighborhood setting with the convenience of everything you need nearby. Don’t miss the opportunity to own a lot in this highly sought-after community.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,451 · $121/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,220 · $518/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,769/yr (+$397/mo · 328.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,432
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,040
• − Property taxes: −$1,451
• − Insurance: −$1,700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,675
• − Management: −$2,675
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$9,888
• Taxable loss: −$4,355
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,045
• After-tax cash flow: $2,557/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pharr-San Juan-Alamo ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834860
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $33,757
• Composite: 19.63/100
• National rank: #8744
• State rank: #740 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Juan

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #294
• US rank: #6725

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Juan, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,958

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 43% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada
• Languages at home: 18% English-only · Spanish 82%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.82%
• Current HPI: 239.3829
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+470.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $339,900 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-02-21 Listed $325,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-10-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-10-01 Sold (MLS) — MCALLENMLS
• 2025-09-29 Pending — MCALLENMLS
• 2025-09-16 Listed $59,600 MCALLENMLS

Property tax history

+27.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,451 · +27.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.