3003 Florida St · Dickinson, TX 77539

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,222 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 64 Days on market

Built 2010 6,499 sqft lot $163/sqft · 5% below area Est $210k · 5% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.8/15.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring thoughtful interior updates and fresh exterior paint. This inviting property offers a spacious backyard—perfect for relaxing or entertaining—and is nestled on a quiet street. Conveniently located in the heart of Dickinson with easy access to major freeways, this home combines comfort and accessibility. Don’t miss out—schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Quiet street
• Spacious backyard
• Interior updates

Tags

• INTERIOR UPDATES
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• QUIET STREET
• EASY ACCESS TO MAJOR FREEWAYS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6 ($-76/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (0.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (12.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 2.4% in Dickinson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#533 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jake Silbernagel El (math 36% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 640 students, 86% FRL); R D Mcadams J H (math 32% / reading 40%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 950 students, 65% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 678 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($187k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,118 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.14%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $209,593
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -5.05%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3003 Florida St	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,222 (0%)	1mo	$199,000	$163	99
3232 Teakwood Cir	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,302 (+6%)	14mo	$199,900	$154	61
2804 Daisy St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+10%)	4mo	$199,000	$148	59
3103 Avenue H	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,243 (+2%)	8mo	$139,000	$112	59
4416 33rd St	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+2%)	11mo	$225,000	$180	52
3240 Teakwood Cir	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,379 (+13%)	15mo	$236,000	$171	50
4007 Raspberry Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,310 (+7%)	15mo	$249,000	$190	49
4009 Victoria Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,121 (-8%)	9mo	$209,900	$187	47
2217 Avenue F	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,188 (-3%)	17mo	$145,000	$122	44
2807 Chicago St	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,390 (+14%)	7mo	$175,000	$126	42
2702 Avenue H	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,365 (+12%)	10mo	$239,900	$176	42
4023 Cranberry Ct	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,074 (-12%)	18mo	$199,990	$186	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-37,745
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-53,075
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77539

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 678
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,751 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$263 /mo · $3,159/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,759

Max offer price $197,886

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $106	-5% $50	+0% $-6	+5% $-63	+10% $-119
Rent	-10% $-145	-5% $-75	+0% $-6	+5% $63	+10% $132
Rate	-1.0pp $94	-0.5pp $44	base $-6	+0.5pp $-58	+1.0pp $-110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3206 Teakwood Cir Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,915	$1.45	24d	1	0.38mi
3011 FM 517 Rd E Unit 3015 Dickinson, TX	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,300	$1.24	45d	1	0.86mi
3011 FM 517 Rd E Dickinson, TX	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,300	$1.24	45d	1	0.86mi
2103 Holly Dr Dickinson, TX	2.0	1.0	840	$1,450	$1.73	45d	1	0.87mi
5008 Asia Ln Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1475	$1,739	$1.18	14d	1	1.08mi
2147 Aruba Calle Dickinson, TX	2.0	2.0	1069	$1,550	$1.45	19d	1	1.16mi
5015 Akumal Calle Dickinson, TX	2.0	2.5	1132	$1,650	$1.46	45d	1	1.19mi
5049 Hauna Ln Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,795	$1.41	5d	1	1.20mi
2130 Saint Lucia Calle Dickinson, TX	2.0	2.5	1272	$1,550	$1.22	19d	1	1.23mi
2114 Saint Lucia Calle Dickinson, TX	2.0	2.5	1132	$1,450	$1.28	0d	1	1.24mi
2106 Saint Lucia Calle Dickinson, TX	2.0	2.5	1272	$1,550	$1.22	5d	1	1.24mi
2114 Roatan Calle Dickinson, TX	2.0	2.5	1132	$1,700	$1.50	0d	1	1.29mi
5053 Akumal Calle Dickinson, TX	2.0	2.5	1272	$1,750	$1.38	0d	1	1.30mi
5101 Coba Calle Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,500	$1.32	45d	1	1.32mi
5098 Akumal Calle Dickinson, TX	2.0	2.5	1272	$1,700	$1.34	6d	1	1.39mi
555 FM 646 Rd Unit 612 Dickinson, TX	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,495	$1.31	14d	1	1.39mi
555 FM 646 Rd Unit 592 Dickinson, TX	2.0	2.0	1140	$1,470	$1.29	17d	1	1.39mi
555 FM 646 Rd Unit 2162 Dickinson, TX	2.0	2.0	1102	$1,674	$1.52	7d	1	1.39mi
555 FM 646 Rd Unit 578 Dickinson, TX	2.0	2.0	1102	$1,658	$1.50	0d	1	1.39mi
5102 Akumal Calle Dickinson, TX	2.0	2.5	1132	$1,450	$1.28	45d	1	1.39mi
5139 Martinique Calle Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,750	$1.54	6d	1	1.42mi
555 Fm RD Dickinson, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1056	$1,945	$1.84	4d	27	1.43mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 413-char remark

   Show marketing remark (413 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring thoughtful interior updates and fresh exterior paint. This inviting property offers a spacious backyard—perfect for relaxing or entertaining—and is nestled on a quiet street. Conveniently located in the heart of Dickinson with easy access to major freeways, this home combines comfort and accessibility. Don’t miss out—schedule your showing today!

2. 2026-04-10
   price $199,000 413-char remark

   Show marketing remark (413 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring thoughtful interior updates and fresh exterior paint. This inviting property offers a spacious backyard—perfect for relaxing or entertaining—and is nestled on a quiet street. Conveniently located in the heart of Dickinson with easy access to major freeways, this home combines comfort and accessibility. Don’t miss out—schedule your showing today!

3. 2026-04-02
   price $205,000 413-char remark

   Show marketing remark (413 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring thoughtful interior updates and fresh exterior paint. This inviting property offers a spacious backyard—perfect for relaxing or entertaining—and is nestled on a quiet street. Conveniently located in the heart of Dickinson with easy access to major freeways, this home combines comfort and accessibility. Don’t miss out—schedule your showing today!

4. 2026-03-17
   listed $215,000 Active 413-char remark

   Show marketing remark (413 chars)

   Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home featuring thoughtful interior updates and fresh exterior paint. This inviting property offers a spacious backyard—perfect for relaxing or entertaining—and is nestled on a quiet street. Conveniently located in the heart of Dickinson with easy access to major freeways, this home combines comfort and accessibility. Don’t miss out—schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,159 · $263/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,642 · $303/mo
• Expected delta: +$483/yr (+$40/mo · 15.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 57% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,014
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$3,159
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,681
• − Management: −$1,681
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$3,438
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$825
• After-tax cash flow: $749/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dickinson

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #533
• US rank: #10431

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 49,375
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 49,375
• Household income: $89,111
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 869.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 19% Black 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.46%
• Current HPI: 258.0104
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.12%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $215,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,159 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.