15197 Willis Waukegan Rd · Cut and Shoot, TX 77303

$169,999

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 2005 Good condition 0.67 ac lot ↓ 40% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 15197 Willis Waukegan Road — a beautifully updated, move-in-ready country retreat offering the perfect blend of charm, comfort, and functionality. Recently refreshed with new flooring, fresh paint, and a fully remodeled bathroom, this home is designed for easy living and modern style. The kitchen is a standout with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, abundant cabinetry, and generous prep space for everyday cooking or hosting. The spacious primary bedroom offers a large walk-in closet, providing plenty of storage and convenience. Outside, enjoy a fully fenced backyard perfect for pets, play, or relaxing evenings under the Texas sky. Beyond the backyard, a second

Key facts

• Large walk-in closet
• Granite countertops
• 0.67 acre lot

Tags

• FULLY REMODELED BATHROOM
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• Financial info: Annual taxes (2025): $1,037; Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached carport; 1 carport space
• Utilities: Public water; Aerobic septic system
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2005; Block foundation
• Construction: Wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Metal roof; Lot approximately 0.67 acre; Lot features: Other

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $170k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-314/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (2.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (23.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $129k (23.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.8% in Cut and Shoot — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,326 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Caney Creek H S (math 33% / reading 42%, grade F, #888 of 1,632 statewide, top 55%, 2,504 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 34% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,443 (23.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.66%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-33,064
• Equity at exit: $25,347

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-45,832
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77303

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,294 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,037/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $-26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,328

Max offer price $165,379

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,999 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,999 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,999 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,999 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,999 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   price $169,999 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,999 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,999 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,999 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $179,999 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $179,999 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $179,999 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $179,999 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $179,999 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-28
    listed $179,999 Active
16. 2026-03-30
    soldstatus
17. 2023-08-23
    soldstatus
18. 2019-03-29
    historical
19. 2019-03-27
    listed $259,700 Active
20. 2019-01-09
    historical
21. 2018-09-04
    listed $299,500 Active
22. 2002-10-04
    soldstatus
23. 1997-07-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,037 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,111 · $259/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,074/yr (+$173/mo · 200.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,533
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$1,037
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,243
• − Management: −$1,243
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$3,307
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$794
• After-tax cash flow: $480/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in-ready home offers a blend of charm and modern updates, with a fully remodeled kitchen and bathroom, new flooring, and fresh paint. The well-maintained exterior and landscaping add to its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and yard maintenance — Improves curb appeal and adds value
• Both Add a small shed or storage unit — Provides additional storage and enhances functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and yard maintenance — Improves curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Add a small shed or storage unit — Provides additional storage and enhances functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cut and Shoot

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1326
• US rank: #22835

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cut and Shoot, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,854
• Household income: $75,348
• Rent vs Own: 25.8% rent · 74.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 464.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 31%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.71%
• Current HPI: 269.5367
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-39.9% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $179,999 HARMLS
• 2026-03-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-08-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-03-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2019-03-27 Listed $259,700 HARMLS
• 2019-01-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2018-09-04 Listed $299,500 HARMLS
• 2002-10-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1997-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records