970 Mansfield Rd · Reno, TX 75462

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,420 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 48 Days on market

0.51 ac lot Est $190k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Peaceful Country Living on . 51 Acres!Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home nestled on a quiet country road in Lamar County. Situated on approximately . 51 acres, this property offers the perfect blend of comfort, functionality, and outdoor space. The home features a 2-car garage plus a spacious 2-car carport across the front, providing ample covered parking for family and guests. Inside, you’ll find a comfortable layout ideal for everyday living. Step outside to enjoy the fully fenced yard, perfect for pets, kids, or gardening. The backyard also includes a storage building for your tools and equipment, along with a private well for outdoor watering, helping keep your landsc

Key facts

• Private well
• Storage building
• Fully fenced yard

Tags

• FULLY FENCED YARD
• STORAGE BUILDING
• PRIVATE WELL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($575/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (9.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $158k (9.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.0% in Reno — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,131 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• North Lamar ISD (rural): math 43% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #275 of 826 in TX (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Frank Stone Middle (math 45% / reading 45%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 528 students, 55% FRL); North Lamar H S (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 727 students, 46% FRL).
• Market conditions: 124 active listings in the ZIP; 119 units permitted in Lamar County in 2024 (71 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lamar County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,061 (9.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.17%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $190,280
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
970 Mansfield Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,420 (0%)	1mo	$175,000	$123	99
850 Lee Cir	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,367 (-4%)	13mo	$179,900	$132	78
140 Laredo	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,442 (+2%)	15mo	$190,000	$132	66
605 Mansfield Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-8%)	22mo	$235,900	$180	60
1135 Cope Dr	0.73mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,408 (-1%)	3mo	$155,000	$110	55
1045 Braydan Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,574 (+11%)	20mo	$280,000	$178	54
4565 Pine Mill Rd	0.68mi	3/2.5	1,493 (+5%)	12mo	$199,900	$134	47
195 Comanche Cir	0.47mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,306 (-8%)	13mo	$184,999	$142	45
4845 Eastgate	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,231 (-13%)	13mo	$217,000	$176	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-25,290
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-18,020
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75462

• Home prices YoY: -19.0%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,581 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,522/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,520

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $147	-5% $97	+0% $48	+5% $-2	+10% $-51
Rent	-10% $-77	-5% $-15	+0% $48	+5% $110	+10% $173
Rate	-1.0pp $136	-0.5pp $92	base $48	+0.5pp $3	+1.0pp $-44

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-17
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-28
   listed $175,000 Active
3. 2018-03-19
   soldstatus
4. 2014-08-08
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,522 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$680/yr (+$57/mo · 27.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,967
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,522
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,517
• − Management: −$1,517
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,358
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$566
• After-tax cash flow: $1,140/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Lamar ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833010
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,328
• Composite: 38.13/100
• National rank: #4270
• State rank: #275 of 826 in TX

Livability — Reno

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1131
• US rank: #20008

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Reno, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,651

Population outlook (Lamar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,319 people
• By 2030: 47,160 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 44,621 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 42,024 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 36,577 · -24.3%
• By 2100: 30,580 · -36.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lamar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.0) · D 19.2% · R 80.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.1pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -61.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.0 2020: R+57.4 2016: R+59.2 2012: R+50.3 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.01%
• Current HPI: 200.7301
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-02-28 Listed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2018-03-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-08-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,522 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.