93 Northridge Ter Spc 37 · Medford, OR 97501

$110,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,215 sqft · Land public records · 160 Days on market

Built 1997 $91/sqft · at area comps Est $105k · at est. ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.4/15.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy easy living in this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Bear Creek Estates. The open, split-bedroom floor plan provides comfortable living with beautiful, unobstructed west-facing views of the Medford and Phoenix hills from the entry and living area. Covered front and back patios invite you to relax outdoors, and the backyard offers space for a garden. Two large storage sheds by the carport add practical storage.

Key facts

• Large storage sheds
• Space for a garden
• Parking

Tags

• UNOBSTRUCTED WEST-FACING VIEWS
• COVERED FRONT AND BACK PATIOS
• SPACE FOR A GARDEN
• LARGE STORAGE SHEDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $741 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 2.8% in Medford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#78 in OR, #3,467 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, health & safety A+, amenities A-; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, crime F.
• Phoenix-Talent SD 4 (suburban): math 14% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #58 of 58 in OR (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 70 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 904 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (212 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.88%
• DSCR: 2.28
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $105,000
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: 4.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.93×
• Total profit: $28,511
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 30.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.66×
• Total profit: $82,075
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97501

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,759 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $312/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $741

Break-even live

Break-even rent $821

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $803	-5% $772	+0% $741	+5% $710	+10% $679
Rent	-10% $602	-5% $672	+0% $741	+5% $811	+10% $880
Rate	-1.0pp $797	-0.5pp $769	base $741	+0.5pp $713	+1.0pp $684

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
168 Northridge Ter Medford, OR	2.0	1.5	950	$1,600	$1.68	22d	1	0.12mi
204 Cheryl Ln Unit J Phoenix, OR	2.0	1.5	1008	$1,350	$1.34	45d	1	0.51mi
310 Independence Cir Apt D Phoenix, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,595	$1.88	14d	1	0.75mi
110 6th St Phoenix, OR	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,895	$1.82	14d	1	0.78mi
110 6th St Phoenix, OR	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,895	$1.82	22d	1	0.78mi
600 W 1st St Phoenix, OR	2.0	1.0	864	$1,395	$1.61	22d	1	1.11mi
211 W 1st St Apt B Phoenix, OR	2.0	1.5	1250	$1,600	$1.28	14d	1	1.11mi
412 Oak St Unit 2 Phoenix, OR	3.0	2.5	1368	$1,750	$1.28	45d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $110,000 Active 160 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $110,000 Active 158 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 155 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 154 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 149 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $110,000 Active 148 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $110,000 Active 147 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 146 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 141 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 140 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 139 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $110,000 Active 138 DOM
17. 2026-04-17
    price $110,000 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    Enjoy easy living in this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Bear Creek Estates. The open, split-bedroom floor plan provides comfortable living with beautiful, unobstructed west-facing views of the Medford and Phoenix hills from the entry and living area. Covered front and back patios invite you to relax outdoors, and the backyard offers space for a garden. Two large storage sheds by the carport add practical storage.

18. 2026-02-06
    price $115,000 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    Enjoy easy living in this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Bear Creek Estates. The open, split-bedroom floor plan provides comfortable living with beautiful, unobstructed west-facing views of the Medford and Phoenix hills from the entry and living area. Covered front and back patios invite you to relax outdoors, and the backyard offers space for a garden. Two large storage sheds by the carport add practical storage.

19. 2026-01-12
    listed $125,000 Active 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    Enjoy easy living in this well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in Bear Creek Estates. The open, split-bedroom floor plan provides comfortable living with beautiful, unobstructed west-facing views of the Medford and Phoenix hills from the entry and living area. Covered front and back patios invite you to relax outdoors, and the backyard offers space for a garden. Two large storage sheds by the carport add practical storage.

20. 2022-08-16
    soldstatus $115,000 Closed 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Very nice, 1997 manufactured home sits on a HUGE lot in 55+ Whispering Pines Community. This home was spared in the 2020 fires. The community around this home is being rebuilt and new homes are selling for significantly more. So claim this affordable home while you can. Home has 3 bedrooms/2 full baths, with a Split bedroom plan. Large Carport and Two storage sheds included with home. New Fencing around one side and back of the huge back yard. Also large Covered Patio and raised Garden Bed. All appliances stay with the home.

21. 2022-07-08
    status Pending 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Very nice, 1997 manufactured home sits on a HUGE lot in 55+ Whispering Pines Community. This home was spared in the 2020 fires. The community around this home is being rebuilt and new homes are selling for significantly more. So claim this affordable home while you can. Home has 3 bedrooms/2 full baths, with a Split bedroom plan. Large Carport and Two storage sheds included with home. New Fencing around one side and back of the huge back yard. Also large Covered Patio and raised Garden Bed. All appliances stay with the home.

22. 2022-06-08
    price $119,000 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Very nice, 1997 manufactured home sits on a HUGE lot in 55+ Whispering Pines Community. This home was spared in the 2020 fires. The community around this home is being rebuilt and new homes are selling for significantly more. So claim this affordable home while you can. Home has 3 bedrooms/2 full baths, with a Split bedroom plan. Large Carport and Two storage sheds included with home. New Fencing around one side and back of the huge back yard. Also large Covered Patio and raised Garden Bed. All appliances stay with the home.

23. 2022-05-17
    listed $126,360 Active 530-char remark

    Show marketing remark (530 chars)

    Very nice, 1997 manufactured home sits on a HUGE lot in 55+ Whispering Pines Community. This home was spared in the 2020 fires. The community around this home is being rebuilt and new homes are selling for significantly more. So claim this affordable home while you can. Home has 3 bedrooms/2 full baths, with a Split bedroom plan. Large Carport and Two storage sheds included with home. New Fencing around one side and back of the huge back yard. Also large Covered Patio and raised Garden Bed. All appliances stay with the home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $312 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,067 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: +$755/yr (+$63/mo · 241.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,112
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$312
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,689
• − Management: −$1,689
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $7,510
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,802
• After-tax cash flow: $7,092/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Phoenix-Talent SD 4
• NCES district ID: 4109630
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $38,625
• Composite: 19.24/100
• National rank: #8809
• State rank: #58 of 58 in OR

Livability — Medford

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #3467

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living C+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jackson County · 159,661 people
• City population: 95,759
• Metro: Medford, OR
• Population (ZIP): 44,670
• Household income: $63,977
• Rent vs Own: 45.6% rent · 54.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1799.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 234,433 people
• By 2030: 243,834 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 259,717 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 273,269 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 300,624 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 305,256 · +30.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 16% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.4) · D 45.5% · R 51.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -6.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.4 2020: R+3.5 2016: R+9.2 2012: R+5.0 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -428.31%
• Current HPI: 248.6495
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.53%
• Metro: Medford, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-12.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $110,000 MLSCO
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $115,000 MLSCO
• 2026-01-12 Listed $125,000 MLSCO
• 2022-08-16 Sold (MLS) $115,000 MLSCO
• 2022-07-08 Pending — MLSCO
• 2022-06-08 Price Changed $119,000 MLSCO
• 2022-05-17 Listed $126,360 MLSCO

Property tax history

+99.0%/yr

Latest (2022): $312 · +5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.