3218 Antelope Hills Dr · Missouri City, TX 77459

$345,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 3,406 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2002 8,559 sqft lot $101/sqft · at area comps Est $355k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into space, comfort, and versatility in this impressive two-story home in Sedona Creek, offering over 3,400 square feet of living space. A grand entry with soaring ceilings and rich wood flooring creates a warm, inviting first impression. The layout features formal living and dining areas, along with a versatile first-floor room and half bath, while a secondary living area opens to the kitchen and dining space—ideal for everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is equipped with quartz countertops, abundant cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and a large island overlooking the main living space. Upstairs, enjoy a spacious game room, comfortably sized secondary bedrooms, and

Key facts

• Grand entry
• Formal living areas
• Rich wood flooring

Tags

• TWO STORY HOME
• GRAND ENTRY
• RICH WOOD FLOORING
• FORMAL LIVING AREAS
• VERSATILE FIRST FLOOR ROOM
• SECONDARY LIVING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a subdivision; Disclosures: Municipal Utility District Disclosure, Seller Disclosure
• HOA & community: Community association (PMG) with an annual fee of $600

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Security: Leased security system; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2002; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick and cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Backyard fencing; Sprinkler / irrigation system; Fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas cooktop; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Space for up to 5 bedrooms; Total of 14 rooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Double vanity; Jetted tub; Kitchen island; Kitchen/family room combo; Primary bedroom with its own bath; Pantry; Separate shower; Tub/shower combination; Kitchen/dining combo; Gas log fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-363 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (18.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $310k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $281k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.5% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Olympia Middle (math 18% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,279 of 1,662 statewide, top 78%, 1,170 students, 71% FRL); Hightower H S (math 23% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,002 of 1,632 statewide, top 62%, 2,535 students, 67% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 35% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-19 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($335k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $280,793 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.52%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $354,586
• List price: $345,000
• Delta: -2.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3238 Woods Canyon Ct	0.07mi	4/2.5	3,379 (-1%)	8mo	$345,000	$102	87
3330 Liberty Way Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5	3,420 (+0%)	4mo	$392,000	$115	82
3014 Sophie Ct	0.45mi	5/4.0 (+1)	3,281 (-4%)	4mo	$435,000	$133	60
3111 Shiloh Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,978 (-13%)	5mo	$375,000	$126	58
3027 Sadie Ct	0.21mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,973 (-13%)	7mo	$385,000	$129	56
3723 Golden Shores Dr	0.70mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,470 (+2%)	4mo	$460,000	$133	54
2711 Sedona Creek Dr	0.22mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,969 (-13%)	9mo	$379,900	$128	54
2707 Dry Creek Dr	0.47mi	5/3.5 (+1)	3,048 (-10%)	2mo	$409,900	$134	52
3014 Cumberland Dr	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,982 (-12%)	1mo	$395,000	$132	51
2623 Atlas Dr	0.58mi	4/3.0	2,975 (-13%)	2mo	$379,900	$128	50
2002 Argos Dr	0.72mi	4/3.5	3,018 (-11%)	9mo	$395,000	$131	38
3215 Selene Dr	0.72mi	5/3.5 (+1)	2,976 (-13%)	4mo	$377,500	$127	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-68,168
• Equity at exit: $72,356

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-105,181
• Equity at exit: $67,020

Cash invested: $96,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,100 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$810 /mo · $9,716/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$651
• Net cashflow: $-363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,560

Max offer price $280,793

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,250
• Closing costs: $10,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3314 Dry Creek Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2600	$4,200	$1.62	43d	1	0.17mi
3218 Clayton Terrace Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2278	$2,395	$1.05	19d	1	0.27mi
3211 Breckinridge Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2920	$2,550	$0.87	20d	1	0.28mi
3212 Aldridge Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2489	$2,650	$1.06	20d	1	0.45mi
2235 Argos Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	2838	$2,550	$0.90	20d	1	0.79mi
3935 Medici Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.0	2636	$2,800	$1.06	20d	1	0.95mi
3947 Amalfi Shores Ct Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2409	$3,500	$1.45	43d	1	1.01mi
2642 Sunlit Meadow Trl Fresno, TX	5.0	3.5	2785	$4,000	$1.44	43d	1	1.13mi
2123 Witham Park Ln Fresno, TX	4.0	4.0	3026	$2,850	$0.94	43d	1	1.32mi
3526 Cambridge Falls Dr Fresno, TX	4.0	3.0	3136	$2,624	$0.84	20d	1	1.36mi
1714 Mustang Xing Missouri City, TX	4.0	3.5	3065	$2,436	$0.79	43d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $345,000 Pending 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $345,000 Pending 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $345,000 Pending 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $345,000 Pending 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   status $345,000 Pending 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $345,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $345,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-04-30
   listed $345,000 Active 990-char remark
9. 2026-04-27
   historical
10. 2026-03-19
    listed $355,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,716 · $810/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,716 · $810/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,202
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,325
• − Property taxes: −$9,716
• − Insurance: −$1,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,976
• − Management: −$2,976
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$10,036
• Taxable loss: −$10,153
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,437
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,925/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 123,513
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-2.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-01 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Listed $345,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Listed $355,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,716 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.