4915 Bay St NE #126 · St. Petersburg, FL 33703

$125,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,035 sqft · Condo public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1975 $655/mo HOA · 29% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to own in Winston Park NE! This ground floor unit offers a full 2 bedroom 2 bath spacious floor plan updated with ceramic tile throughout. The master bedroom fits a king size bed and has a walk-in closet to match! Enjoy your morning cup of coffee as you watch the sunrise through your sliding glass doors located right off the kitchen overlooking the vast green space. Feel free to take a dip in the community pool or challenge a friend to a game of shuffleboard. There is also a community room where card games can ensue. This fabulous 55+ community is conveniently located, only a short distance to Northeast shopping center and minutes from downtown parks, restaurants, museums and easy access to the interstate.

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Large walk-in closet
• Heated pool

Tags

• OVERSIZED PRIMARY SUITE
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LOADS OF STORAGE CABINETS
• HEATED POOL
• CLUBHOUSE WITH FITNESS CLASSES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total annual association fees $7,860; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA dues $655; Association approval required; HOA includes cable TV, internet, insurance, maintenance (structure & grounds), management, pest control, pool, sewer, trash, water, private road maintenance, recreational facilities, escrow reserves and fidelity bond; Community clubhouse and pool; Elevator(s); Laundry facilities; Storage; Shuffleboard court; Community mailbox; Irrigation with reclaimed water; Sidewalks; Buyer approval required; Senior community; Cats allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Deeded parking; Ground level parking; Guest parking; Reserved parking; 1-car carport
• Security: Deed restrictions
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Fire hydrant; Phone available
• Home design: Residential condominium; Single-story (one level); Faces west; Unit on first floor
• Construction: Block and concrete construction; Built-up roof; Slab foundation; Completed condition; Building with elevator
• Exterior features: Outdoor grill; Private mailbox; Sidewalk; Sprinkler metered; Paved roads; Landscaped grounds; Oak trees; Near public transit; Flood zone; City limits

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric water heater; Separate breakfast room
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Split bedroom layout; Thermostat; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Insulated windows; Sliding doors; Attic fan
• Laundry & utility: Common area laundry; BB/HS internet available; Cable available; Phone available

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-98 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $108k (13.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 2.6% in St. Petersburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: North Shore Elementary School (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 501 students, 46% FRL); Meadowlawn Middle School (math 29% / reading 30%, grade F, #469 of 571 statewide, top 84%, 832 students, 69% FRL); Northeast High School (math 35% / reading 47%, grade F, #289 of 667 statewide, top 44%, 1,736 students, 50% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 38% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pinellas average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 457 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $89k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 29% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $107,688 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
7. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
8. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.26%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-27,619
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-36,603
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33703

• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 457
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,261 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,141/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$655
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-98

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,385

Max offer price $107,688

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-27	-5% $-63	+0% $-98	+5% $-133	+10% $-169
Rent	-10% $-277	-5% $-187	+0% $-98	+5% $-9	+10% $81
Rate	-1.0pp $-35	-0.5pp $-66	base $-98	+0.5pp $-130	+1.0pp $-163

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4920 Locust St NE St. Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1035	$1,825	$1.76	26d	1	0.02mi
4880 Locust St NE St Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0–2.0	840	$1,375	$1.64	26d	3	0.10mi
4880 Locust St NE St Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.5–2.0	930	$1,500	$1.61	6d	2	0.10mi
4843 Napoli Ct NE Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1210	$3,000	$2.48	0d	1	0.21mi
617 Segovia Ct NE Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1420	$2,950	$2.08	26d	1	0.29mi
4681 1st St NE #209 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,100	$1.88	0d	1	0.30mi
135 48th Ave N Unit B St. Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	800	$2,495	$3.12	26d	1	0.30mi
120 47th Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	914	$1,999	$2.19	4d	8	0.34mi
4651 1st St NE #306 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,900	$2.59	6d	1	0.34mi
5516 Pine Cir NE Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	1.0	1205	$2,500	$2.07	6d	1	0.38mi
363 48th Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	750	$1,900	$2.53	26d	1	0.44mi
375 54th Ter N St. Petersburg, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	966	$3,284	$3.40	0d	13	0.48mi
411 42nd Ave NE Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1365	$3,500	$2.56	19d	1	0.51mi
440 50th Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	825	$2,100	$2.55	26d	1	0.54mi
4200 1st St NE Unit 2 St. Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	800	$1,650	$2.06	26d	1	0.56mi
233 41st Ave NE Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	1.0	920	$2,245	$2.44	0d	1	0.57mi
426 Palm Ave N Unit 9 St. Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,500	$1.76	26d	1	0.59mi
131 41st Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.0	933	$2,100	$2.25	5d	2	0.62mi
517 Hampton Ave NE St Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.0	896	$2,950	$3.29	26d	1	0.64mi
550 50th Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	765	$1,700	$2.22	9d	2	0.64mi
324 42nd Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1434	$3,500	$2.44	0d	1	0.66mi
628 51st Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1480	$2,800	$1.89	5d	1	0.66mi
101 40th Ave NE Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	1.0	1075	$2,700	$2.51	6d	1	0.66mi
617 52nd Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1481	$3,250	$2.19	6d	1	0.67mi
5185 6th Way N St Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1480	$3,150	$2.13	6d	1	0.68mi
547 46th Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	837	$2,000	$2.39	9d	1	0.70mi
5519 Commonwealth Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	852	$2,900	$3.40	6d	1	0.71mi
220 Southeast Blvd N St. Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$2,000	$2.35	18d	1	0.73mi
613 44th Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	1124	$2,250	$2.00	6d	1	0.76mi
400 38th Ave NE St Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1166	$5,400	$4.63	26d	1	0.79mi
6360 1st St N #103 Saint Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	755	$1,499	$1.99	6d	1	0.87mi
209 NE Lincoln Cir N St Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.5	855	$1,498	$1.75	26d	2	0.92mi
209 NW Jefferson Cir N Unit 15 St. Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	740	$1,275	$1.72	26d	1	0.97mi
209 NW Jefferson Cir N Unit JEFFERSON209-15 St. Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	740	$1,275	$1.72	4d	1	0.97mi
5801 Magnolia St N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1147	$2,250	$1.96	6d	1	1.01mi
620 62nd Ave N #1110 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	884	$1,700	$1.92	0d	1	1.01mi
5210 Doctor Martin Luther King Junior St N St. Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1318	$3,600	$2.73	15d	1	1.01mi
4628 Dr Martin Luther King Jr St N Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,950	$2.08	26d	1	1.02mi
646 38th Ave N Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	1.0	978	$2,400	$2.45	6d	1	1.06mi
252 33rd Ave N St. Petersburg, FL	1.0	1.0	700	$1,995	$2.85	19d	1	1.16mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $655 · $7,860/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $125,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 87 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 86 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 85 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 82 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 78 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 77 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 76 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $125,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-05-10
    price $130,745
15. 2026-04-17
    price $130,750
16. 2026-03-26
    price $144,780
17. 2026-03-23
    listed $149,780 Active
18. 2017-10-04
    soldstatus $89,000
19. 2017-09-28
    soldstatus $89,000 Sold 733-char remark

    Show marketing remark (733 chars)

    Great opportunity to own in Winston Park NE! This ground floor unit offers a full 2 bedroom 2 bath spacious floor plan updated with ceramic tile throughout. The master bedroom fits a king size bed and has a walk-in closet to match! Enjoy your morning cup of coffee as you watch the sunrise through your sliding glass doors located right off the kitchen overlooking the vast green space. Feel free to take a dip in the community pool or challenge a friend to a game of shuffleboard. There is also a community room where card games can ensue. This fabulous 55+ community is conveniently located, only a short distance to Northeast shopping center and minutes from downtown parks, restaurants, museums and easy access to the interstate.

20. 2017-08-11
    status Pending 733-char remark

    Show marketing remark (733 chars)

    Great opportunity to own in Winston Park NE! This ground floor unit offers a full 2 bedroom 2 bath spacious floor plan updated with ceramic tile throughout. The master bedroom fits a king size bed and has a walk-in closet to match! Enjoy your morning cup of coffee as you watch the sunrise through your sliding glass doors located right off the kitchen overlooking the vast green space. Feel free to take a dip in the community pool or challenge a friend to a game of shuffleboard. There is also a community room where card games can ensue. This fabulous 55+ community is conveniently located, only a short distance to Northeast shopping center and minutes from downtown parks, restaurants, museums and easy access to the interstate.

21. 2017-05-26
    listed $95,000 Active 733-char remark

    Show marketing remark (733 chars)

    Great opportunity to own in Winston Park NE! This ground floor unit offers a full 2 bedroom 2 bath spacious floor plan updated with ceramic tile throughout. The master bedroom fits a king size bed and has a walk-in closet to match! Enjoy your morning cup of coffee as you watch the sunrise through your sliding glass doors located right off the kitchen overlooking the vast green space. Feel free to take a dip in the community pool or challenge a friend to a game of shuffleboard. There is also a community room where card games can ensue. This fabulous 55+ community is conveniently located, only a short distance to Northeast shopping center and minutes from downtown parks, restaurants, museums and easy access to the interstate.

22. 2004-01-07
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,141 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,141 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,132
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,141
• − Insurance: −$5,744
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,171
• − Management: −$2,171
• − HOA: −$7,860
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$2,592
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$622
• After-tax cash flow: $-554/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — St. Petersburg

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Petersburg, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 249,151
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,264
• Household income: $95,224
• Rent vs Own: 19.1% rent · 80.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 509.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 10% Black 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 6% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -617.95%
• Current HPI: 352.2886
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.21%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+86.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $130,745 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $130,750 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $144,780 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Listed $149,780 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records
• 2017-09-28 Sold (MLS) $89,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-26 Listed $95,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,141 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.