2513 Twin Buttes Dr NE · Rio Rancho, NM 87144

$270,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,661 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1992 0.29 ac lot Est $365k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

A clean slate with great bones! This property is ready for your style and imagination. Side yard access to the generous back yard, so much space to make it an amazing oasis or a safe and private entertainment space. Sky is the limit here! Invest in your future with this amazing property

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1992

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-333/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (21.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.6% in Rio Rancho — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#17 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• Rio Rancho Public Schools (suburban): math 48% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #4 of 29 in NM (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sandia Vista Elementary (690 students, 11% FRL); Mountain View Middle (937 students, 14% FRL); Cleveland High School (math 46% / reading 70%, grade C, #32 of 110 statewide, top 28%, 2,631 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools average 14% FRL vs 36% district-wide (22 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.9%/yr); 1325 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,278 units permitted in Sandoval County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sandoval County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $212,650 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.44%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $365,420
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2504 Twin Buttes Dr NE	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,686 (+2%)	6mo	$349,995	$208	90
2537 Baldy Loop NE	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,587 (-4%)	7mo	$349,900	$220	86
7262 Pajarito Rd NE	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,664 (+0%)	5mo	$360,000	$216	85
7270 Pajarito Rd NE	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+4%)	6mo	$409,000	$237	82
7258 Pajarito Rd NE	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,542 (-7%)	6mo	$375,000	$243	77
6649 Shenandoah River Ct NE	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,599 (-4%)	3mo	$400,000	$250	74
7213 Sunlight Peak Dr NE	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,687 (+2%)	3mo	$313,000	$186	68
1964 Roanoke Dr NE	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,524 (-8%)	1mo	$329,000	$216	57
2529 Manzano Loop NE	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,908 (+15%)	5mo	$399,900	$210	56
1968 Clearwater Loop NE	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,466 (-12%)	4mo	$324,000	$221	55
2055 Columbia Ct NE	0.60mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,887 (+14%)	1mo	$335,000	$178	43
7228 Spruce Mountain Loop NE	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,872 (+13%)	2mo	$425,000	$227	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-36,957
• Equity at exit: $40,258

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $3,622
• Equity at exit: $23,345

Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 87144

• Home prices YoY: -30.8%
• Rents YoY: 6.9%
• Active inventory: 1325
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,126 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax from tax record: −$179 /mo · $2,151/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,162

Max offer price $265,104

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $125	-5% $49	+0% $-28	+5% $-104	+10% $-181
Rent	-10% $-196	-5% $-112	+0% $-28	+5% $56	+10% $140
Rate	-1.0pp $108	-0.5pp $41	base $-28	+0.5pp $-98	+1.0pp $-169

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,500
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2059 Columbia Ct NE Rio Rancho, NM	4.0	2.5	1887	$2,300	$1.22	45d	1	0.57mi
3200 Camino Encantadas NE Rio Rancho, NM	2.0–4.0	2.0	1194	$1,471	$1.23	3d	124	0.95mi
1027 Desert Willow Ct Bernalillo, NM	2.0	2.0	1600	$2,095	$1.31	3d	1	0.96mi
3649 North Pole Loop NE Rio Rancho, NM	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,995	$1.17	12d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-07
   remarks 287-char remark
2. 2026-06-07
   listed $270,000 Pending

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NM · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,151 · $179/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,160 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: +$9/yr (+$1/mo · 0.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,518
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$2,151
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,041
• − Management: −$2,041
• − Depreciation: −$7,855
• Taxable loss: −$5,045
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,211
• After-tax cash flow: $878/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rio Rancho Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3500010
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 48.00%
• Median HH income: $59,410
• Composite: 52.29/100
• National rank: #1595
• State rank: #4 of 29 in NM

Livability — Rio Rancho

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #7253

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rio Rancho, NM
• County: Sandoval County · 110,336 people
• City population: 110,336
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• Population (ZIP): 51,837
• Household income: $94,550
• Rent vs Own: 13.8% rent · 86.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 528.0

Population outlook (Sandoval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 155,072 people
• By 2030: 161,714 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 171,831 · +10.8%
• By 2050: 178,536 · +15.1%
• By 2075: 192,517 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 197,952 · +27.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 24% Native American 4% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Sandoval

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.8) · D 51.8% · R 46.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: 12.8pp · 2024: 5.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.8 2020: D+8.4 2016: D+2.7 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.68%
• Current HPI: 215.124
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.88%
• Metro: Albuquerque, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+50.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Delisted — Southwest MLS
• 2026-05-29 Listed $270,000 Southwest MLS
• 2017-12-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-12-21 Delisted — Southwest MLS
• 2017-12-01 Pending — Southwest MLS
• 2017-11-08 Listed $180,000 Southwest MLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,151 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.