280 Bullis Rd · West Seneca, NY 14224

$199,900

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,869 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1907 2.96 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled on nearly 3 private acres at the end of a quiet, seldom-traveled dead-end street, this rare 4-bedroom, 1.5-bath home with a massive 2 car barn/garage offers endless potential and a peaceful country setting just minutes from the Thruway. A welcoming covered front porch sets the tone and provides the perfect place to relax on warm summer evenings. Inside, you'll find a spacious living room highlighted by a cozy pellet stove, a large formal dining room ideal for entertaining, and a generously sized eat-in kitchen featuring a fireplace (NRTC), dishwasher, and stove. An increasingly sought-after first-floor bedroom and convenient half bath add flexibility and functionality to the main le

Key facts

• 2.96 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1907

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage with electricity, storage and workshop; Garage door opener; Driveway parking
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Cable available; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-story home; Entry foyer; Resale property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Copper plumbing; Architectural shingle roof; Block foundation; Existing construction
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Covered porch; Deck; Barn(s); Outbuilding

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in range; Built-in oven; Gas cooktop; Freezer; Dishwasher; Eat-in layout
• Bedrooms: First-floor primary bedroom (14 x 12); Second-floor bedroom (13 x 10); Second-floor bedroom (13 x 10); Second-floor bedroom (20 x 14)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Vinyl; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; Main level bathroom included
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Gas heating (forced air); Wall furnace
• Interior features: Separate/formal dining room; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Home office; Natural woodwork; Main level primary bedroom; Bedroom on main level; Programmable thermostat; Workshop; Thermal windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Gas water heater; Humidifier

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $379 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.7% in West Seneca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#130 in NY, #2,089 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
• West Seneca Central School District (suburban): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #336 of 590 in NY (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 201 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1907 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $199,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1907 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.12%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $411,180
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
239 Bullis Rd	0.10mi	4/2.0	2,080 (+11%)	9mo	$310,000	$149	67
555 Leydecker Rd	0.69mi	5/1.5 (+1)	1,818 (-3%)	6mo	$400,000	$220	53
376 Lein Rd	0.65mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,910 (+2%)	8mo	$419,900	$220	52
9 Constitution Ave	0.44mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,909 (+2%)	23mo	$367,750	$193	52
35 Winspear Rd	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,810 (-3%)	18mo	$330,000	$182	48
1690 Center Rd	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,709 (-9%)	2mo	$470,000	$275	44
5024 Seneca St	0.59mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,664 (-11%)	5mo	$375,000	$225	42
40 Freedom Dr	0.30mi	3/4.0 (-1)	2,148 (+15%)	21mo	$380,000	$177	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-8,132
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $24,502
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14224

• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,409 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$393 /mo · $4,711/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$506
• Net cashflow: $379

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,929

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2852 Transit Rd Buffalo, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1070	$2,409	$2.25	2d	1	0.81mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $199,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,711 · $393/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,711 · $393/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 6 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,908
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$4,711
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,313
• − Management: −$2,313
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $1,560
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$374
• After-tax cash flow: $4,173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Seneca Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3630780
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $54,231
• Composite: 44.83/100
• National rank: #2735
• State rank: #336 of 590 in NY

Livability — West Seneca

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #130
• US rank: #2089

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Seneca, NY
• City population: 41,101
• Population (ZIP): 41,101

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 22% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.03%
• Current HPI: 303.7523
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $199,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,711 · +12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.