305 Ashley Dr · Crestview, FL 32536

$247,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,323 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 105 Days on market

Built 1994 0.35 ac lot $187/sqft · 6% below area Est $264k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable home on the South End of town. minutes to Duke Field and 7th Special Forces and only 30 minutes to our beautiful sugar sand beaches of the Emerald Coast. 3 bedrooms 2 full baths. Nice Family room with a wood burning fireplace. Spacious kitchen with dining area. Large fence backyard with a large utility shed for storage. County zoning, lower taxes, No HOA. Make you appointment today to come by and view this wonderful opportunity.

Key facts

• Fence backyard
• County zoning
• 0.35 acre lot

Tags

• MINUTES TO DUKE FIELD
• MINUTES TO 7TH SPECIAL FORCES
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• FENCE BACKYARD
• UTILITY SHED FOR STORAGE
• COUNTY ZONING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $248k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-149 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $222k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (28.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (28.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.4% in Crestview — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#252 in FL, #3,858 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 349 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 59% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 15394% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $248k implies a 247% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,998 (28.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.58%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $263,963
• List price: $247,900
• Delta: -6.09%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 Claire Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,330 (+0%)	4mo	$250,000	$188	86
404 Ashley Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,399 (+6%)	4mo	$265,000	$189	81
411 Ashley Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+7%)	3mo	$289,000	$204	80
204 Grand Prix Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,479 (+12%)	0mo	$270,000	$183	72
106 Campbell Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,304 (-1%)	1mo	$245,000	$188	70
204 Southview Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-2%)	3mo	$270,000	$208	69
403 Juniper Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,370 (+4%)	2mo	$305,000	$223	68
201 Westview Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,234 (-7%)	0mo	$269,900	$219	56
603 Moss Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,221 (-8%)	2mo	$225,000	$184	54
503 Hillview Cir	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,479 (+12%)	3mo	$260,000	$176	49
306 Island Dr. Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+14%)	8mo	$252,500	$167	47
1312 Jeffrine Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,465 (+11%)	4mo	$273,990	$187	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.24×
• Total profit: $-52,958
• Equity at exit: $36,963

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-71,363
• Equity at exit: $21,434

Cash invested: $69,412 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32536

• Home prices YoY: -16.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 349
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,780 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,300
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-149

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,969

Max offer price $221,553

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,975
• Closing costs: $7,437
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
609 Prairie St Crestview, FL	3.0	2.0	1428	$1,775	$1.24	13d	1	0.17mi
127 Nivana Dr Crestview, FL	3.0	2.0	1721	$1,600	$0.93	13d	1	0.51mi
122 Nivana Dr Crestview, FL	3.0	2.0	1186	$1,795	$1.51	43d	1	0.55mi
628 Wingspan Way Crestview, FL	2.0	2.5	1264	$1,400	$1.11	43d	1	0.71mi
551 Wingspan Way Unit 551 Crestview, FL	2.0	3.0	1264	$1,595	$1.26	21d	1	0.74mi
551 Wingspan Way Crestview, FL	2.0	2.5	1264	$1,595	$1.26	21d	1	0.74mi
535 Wingspan Way Crestview, FL	2.0	2.0	1264	$1,350	$1.07	43d	1	0.74mi
535 Wingspan Way Unit 535 Crestview, FL	2.0	2.5	1264	$1,349	$1.07	43d	1	0.74mi
342 Riverwood Dr Crestview, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	862	$1,575	$1.83	13d	15	0.79mi
342 Riverwood Dr Crestview, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	862	$1,575	$1.83	43d	1	0.79mi
738 Majestic Dr Crestview, FL	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,600	$1.10	43d	1	0.79mi
748 Majestic Dr Crestview, FL	3.0	2.5	1460	$1,595	$1.09	43d	1	0.80mi
4596 Hermosa Rd Crestview, FL	4.0	2.0	1861	$2,400	$1.29	43d	1	0.87mi
212 Lustan Dr Crestview, FL	4.0	2.0	1481	$1,695	$1.14	13d	1	0.88mi
1123 Northview Dr Crestview, FL	3.0	2.0	1589	$1,950	$1.23	43d	1	0.95mi
2800 Wilson Ln Crestview, FL	3.0	2.0	1620	$1,895	$1.17	43d	1	1.22mi
2800 Wilson Ln Crestview, FL	4.0	2.0	1620	$1,895	$1.17	13d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $247,900 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $247,900 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $247,900 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-04-08
   listed $1,600
5. 2026-03-03
   price $247,900 443-char remark

   Show marketing remark (443 chars)

   Affordable home on the South End of town. minutes to Duke Field and 7th Special Forces and only 30 minutes to our beautiful sugar sand beaches of the Emerald Coast. 3 bedrooms 2 full baths. Nice Family room with a wood burning fireplace. Spacious kitchen with dining area. Large fence backyard with a large utility shed for storage. County zoning, lower taxes, No HOA. Make you appointment today to come by and view this wonderful opportunity.

6. 2026-02-16
   listed $249,900 Active 443-char remark

   Show marketing remark (443 chars)

   Affordable home on the South End of town. minutes to Duke Field and 7th Special Forces and only 30 minutes to our beautiful sugar sand beaches of the Emerald Coast. 3 bedrooms 2 full baths. Nice Family room with a wood burning fireplace. Spacious kitchen with dining area. Large fence backyard with a large utility shed for storage. County zoning, lower taxes, No HOA. Make you appointment today to come by and view this wonderful opportunity.

7. 1994-10-04
   soldstatus $71,500
8. 1994-06-01
   soldstatus $8,500
9. 1993-10-06
   soldstatus $18,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,824 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,058 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$233/yr (+$19/mo · 12.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,360
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,886
• − Property taxes: −$1,824
• − Insurance: −$1,240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,709
• − Management: −$1,709
• − Depreciation: −$7,212
• Taxable loss: −$6,219
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,493
• After-tax cash flow: $-297/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okaloosa
• NCES district ID: 1201380
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,601
• Composite: 51.62/100
• National rank: #1705
• State rank: #12 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crestview

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #252
• US rank: #3858

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Okaloosa County · 194,352 people
• City population: 58,889
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,599
• Household income: $78,119
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 634.0

Population outlook (Okaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,133 people
• By 2030: 253,483 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 289,537 · +23.1%
• By 2050: 322,954 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 399,624 · +70.0%
• By 2100: 425,311 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okaloosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.2% · R 70.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+39.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.48%
• Current HPI: 265.9926
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.17%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-91.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Listed for Rent $1,600 ECAR
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $247,900 ECAR
• 2026-02-16 Listed $249,900 ECAR
• 1994-10-04 Sold (Public Records) $71,500 Public Records
• 1994-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $8,500 Public Records
• 1993-10-06 Sold (Public Records) $18,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,824 · -8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.