7800 Kay Marie Ave · Zephyrhills, FL 33541

$200,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,269 sqft · Manufactured public records · 460 Days on market

Built 2007 6,000 sqft lot Est $165k · 21% over $77/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Grand Horizons is a Gated Active 55+ Community where you OWN your land! This quality Jacobsen Home has all interior drywall and the upgraded package featuring ceramic tile floors plus tile banded raised counters in kitchen and baths. Vaulted ceiling with triple tray ceiling and transom windows is sure to impress! Etched Glass cabinet inserts to display glassware in kitchen. Split bedroom plan with Master Suite on one end and guest bedroom and bath on the opposite for privacy. Closet pantry with lots of cabinets plus dinette space at the end of your convenient galley kitchen. Inside utility closet for your washer and dryer with extra storage above. Sliding doors to your screened lanai with concrete floor and attached utility shed. Resident owned amenities include private streets, clubhouse, billiards, commercial kitchen, library, craft room, heated pool, hot tub, shuffleboard. .. with numerous planned exciting activities and amenities. Located in Sunny Florida, this home sits up high and dry in the newer phase with close proximity to Clubhouse and Pool! CALL today to take a look and make it yours!

Key facts

• Natural lighting
• Gated grand horizons
• Open concept

Tags

• GATED GRAND HORIZONS
• OWN YOUR LAND
• UPDATED FURNISHED
• OPEN CONCEPT
• NATURAL LIGHTING
• DOUBLE WINDOW

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Senior community; Pets allowed with restrictions (size/number/breed limits; max pet weight 40 lbs); Deed restrictions; Golf carts permitted; Street lights
• Financial info: Total monthly fees $77 (total annual fees $924)
• HOA & community: Grand Horizons HOA with required monthly fee of $77; Association amenities include clubhouse, pool, spa/hot tub, shuffleboard court, recreational facilities, gated community, and private road; Association fee covers pool, common area taxes, management, escrow reserves, recreational facilities, and private road

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Driveway; 1-car carport
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; High-speed internet available; BB/HS internet available
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; Faces west; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered rear porch; Screened porch; Outdoor lighting; Rain gutters; Sidewalks; Shed(s); Landscaped with trees; Paved and private lot; City limits location

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal; Solid surface countertops; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Solid surface counters; Split bedroom floorplan; Thermostat; Tray ceilings; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry closet; Inside laundry; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $192 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.7% in Zephyrhills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#330 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 460 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $60k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $200k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 460 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.12%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $164,970
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
37047 Neukom Ave	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,300 (+2%)	14mo	$275,000	$212	82
37635 Gill Ave	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,407 (+11%)	3mo	$217,000	$154	76
37652 New Horizons Blvd	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,396 (+10%)	3mo	$240,000	$172	72
37501 Campo Ave	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,296 (+2%)	2mo	$140,000	$108	66
37631 Neukom Ave	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+2%)	16mo	$200,000	$154	64
7109 EL Matador St	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,332 (+5%)	9mo	$128,000	$96	51
7141 EL Matador St	0.65mi	2/2.0	1,218 (-4%)	15mo	$137,500	$113	51
37533 Rio Ln	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (+2%)	14mo	$145,500	$112	50
37539 Rio Ln	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,344 (+6%)	14mo	$175,000	$130	49
37526 Rio Ln	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,448 (+14%)	3mo	$180,000	$124	43
7131 EL Dewitt St	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+14%)	6mo	$150,000	$104	41
37642 Amigo Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,204 (-5%)	14mo	$156,000	$130	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-25,756
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-28,255
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,900 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,197/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$77
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $192

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,657

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7660 Emerson Hill Cir Zephyrhills, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1077	$1,964	$1.82	2d	34	0.42mi
8313 Wheat Stone Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1864	$2,275	$1.22	24d	1	0.83mi
37814 Daughtery Rd Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	1070	$1,395	$1.30	5d	1	0.84mi
6633 Foxmoor Dr Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	24d	1	1.30mi
6788 Basswood Cir Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,250	$1.17	24d	1	1.32mi
6773 Branham Mill Ct Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,950	$1.34	24d	1	1.34mi
38350 Ironwood Pl #5 Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$1,800	$1.65	24d	1	1.37mi
7064 Ripple Pond Loop Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1787	$2,047	$1.15	15d	1	1.39mi
6335 Maisie Rd Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.5	1363	$1,650	$1.21	20d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $77 · $924/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-20
   price $200,000
3. 2026-03-16
   price $219,000
4. 2026-03-13
   status Active
5. 2026-01-02
   status Active
6. 2026-01-02
   price $223,000
7. 2025-12-31
   historical
8. 2025-10-23
   price $225,000
9. 2025-08-20
   price $234,900
10. 2025-06-23
    price $245,500
11. 2025-03-21
    price $250,000
12. 2025-01-18
    listed $259,500 Active
13. 2017-07-12
    soldstatus $120,000
14. 2017-07-05
    soldstatus $120,000 Sold 1114-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1114 chars)

    Grand Horizons is a Gated Active 55+ Community where you OWN your land! This quality Jacobsen Home has all interior drywall and the upgraded package featuring ceramic tile floors plus tile banded raised counters in kitchen and baths. Vaulted ceiling with triple tray ceiling and transom windows is sure to impress! Etched Glass cabinet inserts to display glassware in kitchen. Split bedroom plan with Master Suite on one end and guest bedroom and bath on the opposite for privacy. Closet pantry with lots of cabinets plus dinette space at the end of your convenient galley kitchen. Inside utility closet for your washer and dryer with extra storage above. Sliding doors to your screened lanai with concrete floor and attached utility shed. Resident owned amenities include private streets, clubhouse, billiards, commercial kitchen, library, craft room, heated pool, hot tub, shuffleboard. .. with numerous planned exciting activities and amenities. Located in Sunny Florida, this home sits up high and dry in the newer phase with close proximity to Clubhouse and Pool! CALL today to take a look and make it yours!

15. 2017-06-09
    status Pending 1114-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1114 chars)

    Grand Horizons is a Gated Active 55+ Community where you OWN your land! This quality Jacobsen Home has all interior drywall and the upgraded package featuring ceramic tile floors plus tile banded raised counters in kitchen and baths. Vaulted ceiling with triple tray ceiling and transom windows is sure to impress! Etched Glass cabinet inserts to display glassware in kitchen. Split bedroom plan with Master Suite on one end and guest bedroom and bath on the opposite for privacy. Closet pantry with lots of cabinets plus dinette space at the end of your convenient galley kitchen. Inside utility closet for your washer and dryer with extra storage above. Sliding doors to your screened lanai with concrete floor and attached utility shed. Resident owned amenities include private streets, clubhouse, billiards, commercial kitchen, library, craft room, heated pool, hot tub, shuffleboard. .. with numerous planned exciting activities and amenities. Located in Sunny Florida, this home sits up high and dry in the newer phase with close proximity to Clubhouse and Pool! CALL today to take a look and make it yours!

16. 2017-05-06
    status Active 1114-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1114 chars)

    Grand Horizons is a Gated Active 55+ Community where you OWN your land! This quality Jacobsen Home has all interior drywall and the upgraded package featuring ceramic tile floors plus tile banded raised counters in kitchen and baths. Vaulted ceiling with triple tray ceiling and transom windows is sure to impress! Etched Glass cabinet inserts to display glassware in kitchen. Split bedroom plan with Master Suite on one end and guest bedroom and bath on the opposite for privacy. Closet pantry with lots of cabinets plus dinette space at the end of your convenient galley kitchen. Inside utility closet for your washer and dryer with extra storage above. Sliding doors to your screened lanai with concrete floor and attached utility shed. Resident owned amenities include private streets, clubhouse, billiards, commercial kitchen, library, craft room, heated pool, hot tub, shuffleboard. .. with numerous planned exciting activities and amenities. Located in Sunny Florida, this home sits up high and dry in the newer phase with close proximity to Clubhouse and Pool! CALL today to take a look and make it yours!

17. 2017-03-28
    status Pending 1114-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1114 chars)

    Grand Horizons is a Gated Active 55+ Community where you OWN your land! This quality Jacobsen Home has all interior drywall and the upgraded package featuring ceramic tile floors plus tile banded raised counters in kitchen and baths. Vaulted ceiling with triple tray ceiling and transom windows is sure to impress! Etched Glass cabinet inserts to display glassware in kitchen. Split bedroom plan with Master Suite on one end and guest bedroom and bath on the opposite for privacy. Closet pantry with lots of cabinets plus dinette space at the end of your convenient galley kitchen. Inside utility closet for your washer and dryer with extra storage above. Sliding doors to your screened lanai with concrete floor and attached utility shed. Resident owned amenities include private streets, clubhouse, billiards, commercial kitchen, library, craft room, heated pool, hot tub, shuffleboard. .. with numerous planned exciting activities and amenities. Located in Sunny Florida, this home sits up high and dry in the newer phase with close proximity to Clubhouse and Pool! CALL today to take a look and make it yours!

18. 2017-02-27
    listed $125,000 Active 1114-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1114 chars)

    Grand Horizons is a Gated Active 55+ Community where you OWN your land! This quality Jacobsen Home has all interior drywall and the upgraded package featuring ceramic tile floors plus tile banded raised counters in kitchen and baths. Vaulted ceiling with triple tray ceiling and transom windows is sure to impress! Etched Glass cabinet inserts to display glassware in kitchen. Split bedroom plan with Master Suite on one end and guest bedroom and bath on the opposite for privacy. Closet pantry with lots of cabinets plus dinette space at the end of your convenient galley kitchen. Inside utility closet for your washer and dryer with extra storage above. Sliding doors to your screened lanai with concrete floor and attached utility shed. Resident owned amenities include private streets, clubhouse, billiards, commercial kitchen, library, craft room, heated pool, hot tub, shuffleboard. .. with numerous planned exciting activities and amenities. Located in Sunny Florida, this home sits up high and dry in the newer phase with close proximity to Clubhouse and Pool! CALL today to take a look and make it yours!

19. 2014-04-01
    historical
20. 2011-06-27
    listed $109,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,197 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,660 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$463/yr (+$39/mo · 38.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,197
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,824
• − Management: −$1,824
• − HOA: −$924
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$990
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$238
• After-tax cash flow: $2,543/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #5760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Zephyrhills, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+82.0% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $219,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $223,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-23 Price Changed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-20 Price Changed $234,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-23 Price Changed $245,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-21 Price Changed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-18 Listed $259,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2017-07-05 Sold (MLS) $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-06-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-02-27 Listed $125,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-06-27 Listed $109,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,197 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.