7810 Darnay Dr · Houston, TX 77033

$160,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 825 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 176 Days on market

Built 1955 7,383 sqft lot Est $127k · 26% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great investment opportunity!!! Located close to TSU, U of H, Medical Center and Hobby Airport. Invest in this home with spacious rooms including Family Room, 2 Bedrooms, Kitchen and Bathroom. Buyers will love the oversize lot with mature trees in the large backyard. Home is being sold as is. Please send proof of funds or pre- approval letter with offers.

Key facts

• Oversize lot
• Large backyard
• 7,383 sq ft lot

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• OVERSIZE LOT
• LARGE BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($825/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $150k (6.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Attucks Middle (math 15% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,478 of 1,662 statewide, top 90%, 439 students, 98% FRL); Worthing H S (math 22% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,377 of 1,632 statewide, top 85%, 827 students, 96% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.5%/yr); 338 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,498/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($38k/yr) (locally 1728% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 176 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 176 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.84%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $127,050
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5022 Ridgeway Dr	0.09mi	3/1.0	912 (+10%)	17mo	$115,000	$126	64
8525 Dosia St	0.66mi	3/2.0	842 (+2%)	0mo	$129,900	$154	62
4729 Angleton St	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	850 (+3%)	13mo	$130,000	$153	50
4933 Van Fleet St	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	756 (-8%)	20mo	$120,000	$159	50
8130 Sharondale Dr	0.69mi	3/1.0	862 (+4%)	18mo	$110,000	$128	45
5026 Pershing St	0.37mi	3/1.0	925 (+12%)	22mo	$100,000	$108	44
8130 Rockford Dr	0.63mi	3/1.0	945 (+14%)	9mo	$169,999	$180	39
7338 Mountbatten Rd	0.51mi	4/1.0 (+1)	924 (+12%)	16mo	$148,000	$160	38
4922 Larkspur St	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	756 (-8%)	17mo	$125,000	$165	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.45% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-17,734
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $6,641
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77033

• Home prices YoY: -16.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.5%
• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,498 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,512/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,411

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7918 Jutland Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	996	$1,295	$1.30	43d	1	0.20mi
5314 Northridge Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,185	$1.36	43d	1	0.37mi
7818 Calhoun Rd Unit 8 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	43d	1	0.40mi
4615 Redbud St Unit b Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,149	$1.32	24d	1	0.50mi
4609 Bricker St Unit C Houston, TX	2.0	1.5	1100	$3,200	$2.91	13d	1	0.52mi
8521 Dosia St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,665	$1.62	13d	1	0.68mi
4410 Bellfort Ave Unit 4404 8 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	812	$999	$1.23	7d	1	0.85mi
5042 Mallow St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$995	$1.48	5d	1	0.94mi
5010 Carmen St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	43d	1	1.11mi
5038 Carmen St Apt 1 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	3d	1	1.12mi
5537 Bataan Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	880	$1,300	$1.48	43d	1	1.13mi
1600 Jester St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	707	$1,395	$1.97	2d	4	1.13mi
4923 Paula St Apt 2 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	672	$1,095	$1.63	3d	1	1.22mi
4007 Corder St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	814	$885	$1.09	24d	1	1.22mi
7823 Gladstone St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	850	$1,600	$1.88	43d	1	1.22mi
4326 Larkspur St Unit 3 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$1,200	$1.50	17d	1	1.25mi
4207 Phlox St Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$962	$1.31	2d	1	1.38mi
4205 Phlox St Unit 2 BEDROOM 6 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	736	$860	$1.17	18d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-02-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-06
   status Pending
3. 2026-01-27
   status Active
4. 2026-01-25
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-20
   status Pending
6. 2025-11-24
   status Active
7. 2025-11-18
   status Pending
8. 2025-11-10
   status Pending
9. 2025-08-22
   status Active
10. 2025-08-15
    status Pending
11. 2025-08-05
    listed $160,000 Active
12. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,512 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,928 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$416/yr (+$35/mo · 16.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,982
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,512
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,439
• − Management: −$1,439
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$1,824
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$438
• After-tax cash flow: $1,263/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,154
• Household income: $38,071
• Rent vs Own: 41.0% rent · 59.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1728.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 17% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.49%
• Current HPI: 212.6472
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.45%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-02-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-01-25 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-11-24 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-11-18 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-11-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-08-22 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-08-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-08-05 Listed $160,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,512 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.