8302 Harbor Dr · Prairie Creek, AR 72756

$99,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2005

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

16x80 mobile home FSBO in 55+ mobile home community only minutes from Beaver Lake on Highway 12. This home is a 2 bedroom 2 bath that has been updated to create a serene atmosphere. The master bedroom is very spacious and the attached bathroom has both shower and jetted soaking tub. The kitchen has all stainless steel appliances, new counters, deep single sink and ceramic tile behind the stove and on the dining room window ledge. The kitchen, dining room and master bath/closet all have beautiful LVT in a rustic barnwood pattern. HVAC was replaced all new in 2019 and has been on a biyearly maintenance plan since purchase. The outdoor area has a large covered porch and carport on both sides

Key facts

• Deep single sink
• Large covered porch
• Ceramic tile

Tags

• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• DEEP SINGLE SINK
• CERAMIC TILE
• RUSTIC BARNWOOD PATTERN
• LARGE COVERED PORCH
• SCREENED IN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $600 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Cap rate 14.4% vs local median 1.6% in Prairie Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#109 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Rogers School District (urban): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #31 of 238 in AR (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 524 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $99k implies a 281% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $99,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.84%
• DSCR: 2.28
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $211,584
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8466 Navajo Trl	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,144 (-6%)	7mo	$199,500	$174	62
15447 Indian Head Trl	0.54mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+3%)	23mo	$200,000	$160	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $30,476
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.10×
• Total profit: $113,579
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72756

• Home prices YoY: -18.4%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 524
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,574 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$17 /mo · $200/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $600

Break-even live

Break-even rent $815

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9108 Bluff Dr Rogers, AR	2.0	2.0	1475	$1,875	$1.27	23d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-10
   listed $99,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $200 · $17/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $634 · $53/mo
• Expected delta: +$434/yr (+$36/mo · 216.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,886
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$200
• − Insurance: −$1,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,511
• − Management: −$1,511
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $5,946
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,427
• After-tax cash flow: $5,770/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rogers School District
• NCES district ID: 0511970
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 38.81/100
• National rank: #4113
• State rank: #31 of 238 in AR

Livability — Prairie Creek

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #109
• US rank: #10859

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Benton County · 259,241 people
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• Population (ZIP): 41,791
• Household income: $72,230
• Rent vs Own: 37.3% rent · 62.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 981.0

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 318,683 people
• By 2030: 353,481 · +10.9%
• By 2040: 425,280 · +33.4%
• By 2050: 497,239 · +56.0%
• By 2075: 662,114 · +107.8%
• By 2100: 776,431 · +143.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 30% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.2% · R 62.1% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -36.5pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+34.9 2012: R+40.4 2008: R+36.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.57%
• Current HPI: 366.432
• Rent YoY: ▲ 10.01%
• Metro: Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+280.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $99,000 FSBO.com
• 1995-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $200 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.