10566 S Dominguez Dr · Tucson, AZ 85641

$339,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,037 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 293 Days on market

Built 2024 4,025 sqft lot $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Cash flow +4.5/30.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This two-story home features a 9-ft. ceiling height at the first floor and 7x48'' vinyl plank flooring in the color Wild Dunes in the main areas, plus carpet. Covered patio. The modern kitchen features granite countertops, 42'' upper cabinets, a kitchen island, walk-in pantry, and Whirlpool® stainless steel appliances. Upstairs, the primary suite boasts a walk-in closet, shower, and extended dual-sink vanity. There is a loft on the second floor and a convenient laundry room. Price includes discount predicated on using seller's preferred lender KBHS.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Modern kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• 9-FT CEILING HEIGHT
• VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• COVERED PATIO
• MODERN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• 42 UPPER CABINETS

🏗️ New construction. The $339,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $417,585.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $340k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $309k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (31.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F, employment D-.
• Vail Unified District (4413) (rural): math 52% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #26 of 249 in AZ (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Acacia Elementary School (math 47% / reading 53%, grade D+, #263 of 1,109 statewide, top 24%, 743 students, 29% FRL); Old Vail Middle School (math 45% / reading 50%, grade C-, #36 of 218 statewide, top 18%, 798 students, 17% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 655 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 293 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 14368% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,723 (31.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 293 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.21%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.02%
• DSCR: 0.51
• GRM: 14.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $417,585
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12028 Ryscott Cir	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,040 (+0%)	0mo	$425,000	$208	74
12288 E Morris Carson Dr	0.60mi	4/3.0	2,058 (+1%)	0mo	$440,900	$214	70
12240 E Morris Carson Dr	0.56mi	4/2.0	2,053 (+1%)	3mo	$407,900	$199	66
12264 E Morris Carson Dr	0.58mi	4/2.0	2,053 (+1%)	2mo	$421,000	$205	66
12087 E Chavez Dr	0.19mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,768 (-13%)	0mo	$340,000	$192	62
12254 E Patricia Ann Dr	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,264 (+11%)	1mo	$378,900	$167	54
12235 E Patricia Ann Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,264 (+11%)	3mo	$384,000	$170	54
12053 Ryscott Cir	0.54mi	4/3.0	1,810 (-11%)	3mo	$379,990	$210	54
12246 E Patricia Ann Dr	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,264 (+11%)	2mo	$388,900	$172	54
12237 E Morris Carson Dr	0.54mi	4/2.5	2,264 (+11%)	3mo	$383,400	$169	52
12248 E Morris Carson Dr	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,825 (-10%)	1mo	$398,900	$219	52
12216 E Morris Carson Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,825 (-10%)	3mo	$388,900	$213	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-131,112
• Equity at exit: $62,263

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.55×
• Total profit: $-181,149
• Equity at exit: $36,105

Cash invested: $116,924 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85641

• Home prices YoY: -22.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 655
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,347 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,190
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$522 /mo · $6,264/yr
• Insurance: −$174
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $-1,074

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,706

Max offer price $309,112

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,396
• Closing costs: $12,528
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11977 E Chamrod Dr Vail, AZ	3.0	2.5	1768	$1,995	$1.13	3d	1	0.11mi
11976 E Becker Dr Vail, AZ	5.0	3.0	2567	$2,590	$1.01	3d	1	0.36mi
12103 E Becker Dr Vail, AZ	5.0	3.0	2875	$2,395	$0.83	44d	1	0.39mi
12239 E Metz Dr Vail, AZ	4.0	2.5	2330	$2,136	$0.92	3d	1	0.48mi
11935 E Ryscott Cir Vail, AZ	4.0	3.0	2040	$2,200	$1.08	44d	1	0.56mi
10658 S Kush Canyon Ln Vail, AZ	3.0	2.0	1966	$2,000	$1.02	44d	1	0.76mi
12534 E Red Canyon Pl Vail, AZ	4.0	2.5	2023	$2,075	$1.03	3d	1	0.78mi
12528 E Caden Dr Vail, AZ	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,995	$1.25	2d	1	0.97mi
12528 E Caden Dr Vail, AZ	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,995	$1.25	3d	1	0.97mi
12631 E Remi Dr Vail, AZ	4.0	2.5	2384	$2,190	$0.92	44d	1	1.07mi
11468 E Vail Crest Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	2.0	2373	$2,239	$0.94	23d	1	1.14mi
12717 E Giada Dr Vail, AZ	4.0	2.0	1823	$1,995	$1.09	44d	1	1.23mi
12754 E Russo Dr Vail, AZ	4.0	2.5	2418	$2,500	$1.03	3d	1	1.31mi
12815 E Russo Dr Vail, AZ	4.0	2.0	1823	$2,200	$1.21	3d	1	1.34mi
11166 E Vail Vista Ct Tucson, AZ	3.0	2.5	2211	$2,400	$1.09	44d	1	1.37mi
9535 S Crowley Brothers Dr Tucson, AZ	4.0	3.0	2212	$2,095	$0.95	44d	1	1.45mi
11268 S Weismann Dr Vail, AZ	3.0	2.0	1602	$1,795	$1.12	3d	1	1.45mi
11288 S Weismann Dr Vail, AZ	4.0	2.5	2384	$2,200	$0.92	44d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-04-04
   historical $2,350
2. 2026-03-26
   listed $2,350
3. 2025-12-30
   status Pending
4. 2025-12-10
   status Pending
5. 2025-11-21
   price $339,990
6. 2025-10-22
   price $357,990
7. 2025-10-01
   price $358,520
8. 2025-09-10
   price $344,990
9. 2025-08-29
   price $348,990
10. 2025-08-13
    price $359,990
11. 2025-07-31
    price $364,520
12. 2025-07-29
    price $359,520
13. 2025-05-31
    price $367,990
14. 2025-05-14
    price $368,520
15. 2025-04-29
    price $368,990
16. 2025-04-22
    price $369,990
17. 2025-04-18
    price $381,445
18. 2025-02-24
    price $391,445
19. 2025-02-19
    listed $406,445 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $750 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,244 · $187/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,494/yr (+$124/mo · 199.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,167
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,391
• − Property taxes: −$6,264
• − Insurance: −$2,088
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,253
• − Management: −$2,253
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$12,148
• Taxable loss: −$20,735
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,976
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,906/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vail Unified District (4413)
• NCES district ID: 0408850
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $77,126
• Composite: 49.1/100
• National rank: #2051
• State rank: #26 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 34,752
• Household income: $131,164
• Rent vs Own: 5.9% rent · 94.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 42.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 15% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.78%
• Current HPI: 250.1814
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.02%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-99.4% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Rental Removed $2,350 APPFOLIO
• 2026-03-26 Listed for Rent $2,350 APPFOLIO
• 2025-12-30 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2025-12-10 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $339,990 MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $357,990 MLSSAZ
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $358,520 MLSSAZ
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $344,990 MLSSAZ
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $348,990 MLSSAZ
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $359,990 MLSSAZ
• 2025-07-31 Price Changed $364,520 MLSSAZ
• 2025-07-29 Price Changed $359,520 MLSSAZ
• 2025-05-31 Price Changed $367,990 MLSSAZ
• 2025-05-14 Price Changed $368,520 MLSSAZ
• 2025-04-29 Price Changed $368,990 MLSSAZ
• 2025-04-22 Price Changed $369,990 MLSSAZ
• 2025-04-18 Price Changed $381,445 MLSSAZ
• 2025-02-24 Price Changed $391,445 MLSSAZ
• 2025-02-19 Listed $406,445 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

+43.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $750 · +43.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.