23 S Fairway Dr · Lake, PA 18436

$335,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,852 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 248 Days on market

Built 1976 0.36 ac lot $181/sqft · 22% above area Est $334k · at est. $194/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Embrace captivating views of the golf course from this remodeled four-bedroom, 2.5-bath residence situated in the amenity-rich community of The Hideout. Just two hours from New York, New Jersey and Philadelphia areas. Highlights of this home include newly installed granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a metal roof. With a bedroom conveniently located on each level, it's ideal for families and visiting guests. Not only does this home overlook the golf course, but it is also steps away from The Clubhouse, the community pub and restaurant, as well as the Indoor Sports Complex where you can enjoy the arcade room, fitness center and indoor courts. The Hideout community is packed with amenities, also including access to Roamingwood Lake, beaches, two outdoor pools, mini golf course, tennis and pickleball courts, ski hill and more. With 24-hour security, residents can enjoy a secure and vibrant lifestyle. Great opportunity to live in a home that beautifully blends comfort and leisure right at your fingertips!

Key facts

• New metal roof
• Granite countertops
• Golf course views

Tags

• GOLF COURSE VIEWS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• NEW METAL ROOF
• LAKE AND BEACH ACCESS
• 24 HOUR SECURITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $335k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-558 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (29.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (29.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Western Wayne SD (rural): math 39% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #165 of 539 in PA (top 31%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Evergreen El Sch (math 42% / reading 68%, grade C, #498 of 1,518 statewide, top 33%, 506 students, 64% FRL); Western Wayne Ms (math 21% / reading 61%, grade F, #243 of 512 statewide, top 48%, 411 students, 57% FRL); Western Wayne Hs (math 77% / reading 24%, grade D+, #125 of 437 statewide, top 30%, 545 students, 49% FRL) — zoned schools average 56% FRL vs 41% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 341 active listings in the ZIP; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 248 days — a 12% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $45k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $144k; list at $335k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,449 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 248 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.43%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,671
• List price: $335,000
• Delta: 0.40%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
278 North Gate Rd	0.23mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,816 (-2%)	4mo	$315,000	$173	76
2941 S Fairway Dr	0.13mi	4/3.5	1,993 (+8%)	4mo	$549,900	$276	74
88 S Fairway Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,906 (+3%)	1mo	$279,000	$146	72
2988 Wedge Dr	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,750 (-6%)	1mo	$248,000	$142	70
3502 Chestnut Hill Dr	0.34mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,892 (+2%)	6mo	$167,500	$89	67
76 Wedge Dr Lot 2982	0.40mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,918 (+4%)	8mo	$350,000	$182	62
2894 S Fairway Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0	1,650 (-11%)	2mo	$305,000	$185	62
123 N Fairway Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,762 (-5%)	1mo	$257,000	$146	58
2745 Boulder Rd #143	0.47mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,691 (-9%)	3mo	$239,000	$141	54
157 Boulder Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,094 (+13%)	1mo	$240,000	$115	52
176 N Fairway Dr	0.71mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,787 (-4%)	6mo	$298,000	$167	51
14 Par Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,691 (-9%)	2mo	$299,000	$177	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $147,023
• Equity at exit: $301,795

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.92×
• Total profit: $461,107
• Equity at exit: $650,831

Cash invested: $93,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18436

• Home prices YoY: 16.9%
• Active inventory: 341
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,366 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,757
• Tax from tax record: −$281 /mo · $3,370/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$194
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $-558

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,072

Max offer price $236,449

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-368	-5% $-463	+0% $-558	+5% $-653	+10% $-748
Rent	-10% $-745	-5% $-651	+0% $-558	+5% $-464	+10% $-371
Rate	-1.0pp $-389	-0.5pp $-473	base $-558	+0.5pp $-645	+1.0pp $-733

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,750
• Closing costs: $10,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $194 · $2,328/yr
• Likely covers: poolgymsecurity

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $335,000 Active 248 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $335,000 Active 245 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $335,000 Active 244 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $335,000 Active 243 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $335,000 Active 242 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $335,000 Active 240 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $335,000 Active 239 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $335,000 Active 237 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $335,000 Active 236 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $335,000 Active 235 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $335,000 Active 234 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $335,000 Active 230 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $335,000 Active 229 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $335,000 Active 228 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $335,000 Active 227 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $335,000 Active 226 DOM
17. 2026-04-05
    status Active 1033-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1033 chars)

    Embrace captivating views of the golf course from this remodeled four-bedroom, 2.5-bath residence situated in the amenity-rich community of The Hideout. Just two hours from New York, New Jersey and Philadelphia areas. Highlights of this home include newly installed granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a metal roof. With a bedroom conveniently located on each level, it's ideal for families and visiting guests. Not only does this home overlook the golf course, but it is also steps away from The Clubhouse, the community pub and restaurant, as well as the Indoor Sports Complex where you can enjoy the arcade room, fitness center and indoor courts. The Hideout community is packed with amenities, also including access to Roamingwood Lake, beaches, two outdoor pools, mini golf course, tennis and pickleball courts, ski hill and more. With 24-hour security, residents can enjoy a secure and vibrant lifestyle. Great opportunity to live in a home that beautifully blends comfort and leisure right at your fingertips!

18. 2026-03-30
    price $357,000 1033-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1033 chars)

    Embrace captivating views of the golf course from this remodeled four-bedroom, 2.5-bath residence situated in the amenity-rich community of The Hideout. Just two hours from New York, New Jersey and Philadelphia areas. Highlights of this home include newly installed granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a metal roof. With a bedroom conveniently located on each level, it's ideal for families and visiting guests. Not only does this home overlook the golf course, but it is also steps away from The Clubhouse, the community pub and restaurant, as well as the Indoor Sports Complex where you can enjoy the arcade room, fitness center and indoor courts. The Hideout community is packed with amenities, also including access to Roamingwood Lake, beaches, two outdoor pools, mini golf course, tennis and pickleball courts, ski hill and more. With 24-hour security, residents can enjoy a secure and vibrant lifestyle. Great opportunity to live in a home that beautifully blends comfort and leisure right at your fingertips!

19. 2025-10-16
    listed $379,999 Active 1033-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1033 chars)

    Embrace captivating views of the golf course from this remodeled four-bedroom, 2.5-bath residence situated in the amenity-rich community of The Hideout. Just two hours from New York, New Jersey and Philadelphia areas. Highlights of this home include newly installed granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a metal roof. With a bedroom conveniently located on each level, it's ideal for families and visiting guests. Not only does this home overlook the golf course, but it is also steps away from The Clubhouse, the community pub and restaurant, as well as the Indoor Sports Complex where you can enjoy the arcade room, fitness center and indoor courts. The Hideout community is packed with amenities, also including access to Roamingwood Lake, beaches, two outdoor pools, mini golf course, tennis and pickleball courts, ski hill and more. With 24-hour security, residents can enjoy a secure and vibrant lifestyle. Great opportunity to live in a home that beautifully blends comfort and leisure right at your fingertips!

20. 2025-08-08
    status Active
21. 2025-07-18
    price $385,000
22. 2025-02-07
    listed $410,000 Active
23. 2024-07-29
    listed $425,000 Active
24. 2023-08-31
    soldstatus $144,000
25. 2023-08-29
    soldstatus $144,000
26. 2023-07-03
    listed $145,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,370 · $281/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,332 · $361/mo
• Expected delta: +$961/yr (+$80/mo · 28.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,765
• − Property taxes: −$3,370
• − Insurance: −$2,342
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,271
• − Management: −$2,271
• − HOA: −$2,328
• − Depreciation: −$9,745
• Taxable loss: −$12,704
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,049
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,645/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Western Wayne SD
• NCES district ID: 4226070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,358
• Composite: 43.65/100
• National rank: #2964
• State rank: #165 of 539 in PA

Livability — Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Hideout, PA
• Population (ZIP): 13,225

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 47.95%
• Current HPI: 331.9645
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+146.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-05 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $357,000 PWMLS
• 2025-10-16 Listed $379,999 PWMLS
• 2025-08-08 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $385,000 PWMLS
• 2025-02-07 Listed $410,000 PWMLS
• 2024-07-29 Listed $425,000 PWMLS
• 2023-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $144,000 Public Records
• 2023-08-29 Sold (MLS) $144,000 PWMLS
• 2023-07-03 Listed $145,100 PWMLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,370 · +33.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.