4769 Pine Ln · Pace, FL 32571

$168,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,666 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1955 0.92 ac lot Est $318k · 47% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Almost 1 acre in Pace! Immaculately kept 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath home with the potential to easily convert into a 3-bedroom, 2-bath. This 1,666 sq ft home offers incredible flexibility—whether you’re searching for a primary residence or looking to live in the home while building on the property. Step inside to a cozy, functional layout featuring a screened porch that opens into the living room, creating a welcoming space to relax or entertain. Just off the living area, you’ll find the kitchen and dining space, ideal for everyday living. Down the hall, you’ll find a full bathroom, the primary bedroom, and a versatile storage room that could be used as a third bedroom or o

Key facts

• Storage shed
• Screened porch
• Generous lot size

Tags

• SCREENED PORCH
• FULLY FENCED PROPERTY
• STORAGE SHED
• GENEROUS LOT SIZE
• VERSATILE STORAGE ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Homestead eligible; County maintained road
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Guest parking; Open parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Circuit breaker electric
• Home design: Single-story (one level); Resale property; Not attached to other properties
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition roof; Off-grade foundation; Built on one level
• Exterior features: Back yard with full chain link fencing; Yard building (other structure); Paved road access; Central access lot feature

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the first floor (approx. 12x18, 10x18, 10x11)
• Flooring: Vinyl; Laminate
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom and one half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Vinyl and laminate flooring; Pantry; Interior handicap provisions; Insulation and insulated floors
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $168k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $361 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $168k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.5% in Pace — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#475 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 665 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $168k implies a 460% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,960 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.21%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $318,206
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4769 Pine Ln	0.00mi	2/1.5	1,666 (0%)	0mo	$168,000	$101	98
4745 Sago Palm Cir	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,660 (-0%)	0mo	$319,000	$192	72
4722 Majestic Palm St	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,685 (+1%)	2mo	$339,990	$202	68
4703 Santa Rosa Dr	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,583 (-5%)	2mo	$285,000	$180	67
4741 Sago Palm Cir	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,569 (-6%)	3mo	$320,000	$204	62
4344 Forte St	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,566 (-6%)	2mo	$195,000	$125	52
4597 Sago Palm Cir	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,848 (+11%)	1mo	$354,000	$192	49
4245 Lady Palm Ct	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,857 (+12%)	0mo	$345,000	$186	49
4930 E Spencer Field Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,475 (-12%)	2mo	$320,000	$217	43
4320 Grant St	0.63mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,459 (-12%)	1mo	$265,000	$182	40
4805 Air Field Dr Lot 27D	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,474 (-12%)	1mo	$281,990	$191	39
4781 Air Field Dr Lot 23D	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,474 (-12%)	2mo	$281,990	$191	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.90×
• Total profit: $-4,781
• Equity at exit: $25,049

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $23,180
• Equity at exit: $14,526

Cash invested: $47,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32571

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 665
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,721 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$881
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $569/yr
• Insurance: −$70
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $361

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,264

Max offer price $168,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,000
• Closing costs: $5,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4496 Fiske St Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,850	$1.30	13d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $168,000 Pending 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $168,000 Contingent 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $168,000 Contingent 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $168,000 Contingent 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $168,000 Contingent 46 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $168,000 Contingent 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $168,000 Contingent 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $168,000 Contingent 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $168,000 Contingent 40 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $168,000 Contingent 39 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $168,000 Contingent 38 DOM
12. 2026-05-11
    historical Contingent
13. 2026-04-22
    listed $168,000 Active
14. 2025-05-27
    historical
15. 2025-05-21
    historical Contingent
16. 2025-04-08
    price $168,000
17. 2025-03-24
    listed $185,000 Active
18. 1984-08-01
    soldstatus $30,000
19. 1982-09-01
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $569 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,394 · $116/mo
• Expected delta: +$825/yr (+$69/mo · 145.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,651
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,411
• − Property taxes: −$569
• − Insurance: −$840
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,652
• − Management: −$1,652
• − Depreciation: −$4,887
• Taxable income: $1,640
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$394
• After-tax cash flow: $3,940/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pace

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #475
• US rank: #8593

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pace, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 42,171
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,171
• Household income: $87,617
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.39%
• Current HPI: 290.2953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.72%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+460.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $168,000 PARMLS
• 2025-05-27 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2025-05-21 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2025-04-08 Price Changed $168,000 PARMLS
• 2025-03-24 Listed $185,000 PARMLS
• 1984-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 1982-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $569 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.