12642 Blue Catfish Ln · Houston, TX 77433

$328,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,906 sqft · Land · 66 Days on market

Built 2025 $116/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

**BRAND NEW LENNAR URBAN VILLAS IN BRIDGELAND** The exciting two-story Bagby II "DB" floorplan from Lennar features an open first floor that highlights a kitchen, a casual dining space and an adjoining family room. Upstairs reveals a game room and two secondary bedrooms that share a full bathroom. The second-floor owner’s suite offers a private bathroom and a walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Open first floor
• Two story
• Private bathroom

Tags

• TWO STORY
• OPEN FIRST FLOOR
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• WALK IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $329k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-263 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $283k (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (27.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 2065 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($309k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 17% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $237,380 (27.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.42%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-77,044
• Equity at exit: $49,053

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-115,708
• Equity at exit: $28,445

Cash invested: $92,117 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77433

• Home prices YoY: -28.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 2065
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,374 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,725
• Tax from tax record: −$160 /mo · $1,916/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$116
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $-263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,706

Max offer price $282,589

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-76	-5% $-170	+0% $-263	+5% $-356	+10% $-449
Rent	-10% $-450	-5% $-356	+0% $-263	+5% $-169	+10% $-75
Rate	-1.0pp $-97	-0.5pp $-179	base $-263	+0.5pp $-348	+1.0pp $-435

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,248
• Closing costs: $9,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12623 Blue Catfish Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	1906	$2,350	$1.23	6d	1	0.03mi
12519 Ja Ranch Ct Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1521	$2,400	$1.58	25d	1	0.31mi
21234 Black Gap Wildlife Dr , TX	3.0	2.5	1865	$2,500	$1.34	45d	1	0.54mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $116 · $1,392/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 393-char remark

   Show marketing remark (393 chars)

   **BRAND NEW LENNAR URBAN VILLAS IN BRIDGELAND** The exciting two-story Bagby II "DB" floorplan from Lennar features an open first floor that highlights a kitchen, a casual dining space and an adjoining family room. Upstairs reveals a game room and two secondary bedrooms that share a full bathroom. The second-floor owner’s suite offers a private bathroom and a walk-in closet.

2. 2026-05-11
   price $328,990 393-char remark

   Show marketing remark (393 chars)

   **BRAND NEW LENNAR URBAN VILLAS IN BRIDGELAND** The exciting two-story Bagby II "DB" floorplan from Lennar features an open first floor that highlights a kitchen, a casual dining space and an adjoining family room. Upstairs reveals a game room and two secondary bedrooms that share a full bathroom. The second-floor owner’s suite offers a private bathroom and a walk-in closet.

3. 2026-04-07
   status Active 393-char remark

   Show marketing remark (393 chars)

   **BRAND NEW LENNAR URBAN VILLAS IN BRIDGELAND** The exciting two-story Bagby II "DB" floorplan from Lennar features an open first floor that highlights a kitchen, a casual dining space and an adjoining family room. Upstairs reveals a game room and two secondary bedrooms that share a full bathroom. The second-floor owner’s suite offers a private bathroom and a walk-in closet.

4. 2026-03-10
   price $288,990 393-char remark

   Show marketing remark (393 chars)

   **BRAND NEW LENNAR URBAN VILLAS IN BRIDGELAND** The exciting two-story Bagby II "DB" floorplan from Lennar features an open first floor that highlights a kitchen, a casual dining space and an adjoining family room. Upstairs reveals a game room and two secondary bedrooms that share a full bathroom. The second-floor owner’s suite offers a private bathroom and a walk-in closet.

5. 2026-02-23
   price $291,990 393-char remark

   Show marketing remark (393 chars)

   **BRAND NEW LENNAR URBAN VILLAS IN BRIDGELAND** The exciting two-story Bagby II "DB" floorplan from Lennar features an open first floor that highlights a kitchen, a casual dining space and an adjoining family room. Upstairs reveals a game room and two secondary bedrooms that share a full bathroom. The second-floor owner’s suite offers a private bathroom and a walk-in closet.

6. 2026-02-23
   historical 393-char remark

   Show marketing remark (393 chars)

   **BRAND NEW LENNAR URBAN VILLAS IN BRIDGELAND** The exciting two-story Bagby II "DB" floorplan from Lennar features an open first floor that highlights a kitchen, a casual dining space and an adjoining family room. Upstairs reveals a game room and two secondary bedrooms that share a full bathroom. The second-floor owner’s suite offers a private bathroom and a walk-in closet.

7. 2026-02-09
   price $328,990 393-char remark

   Show marketing remark (393 chars)

   **BRAND NEW LENNAR URBAN VILLAS IN BRIDGELAND** The exciting two-story Bagby II "DB" floorplan from Lennar features an open first floor that highlights a kitchen, a casual dining space and an adjoining family room. Upstairs reveals a game room and two secondary bedrooms that share a full bathroom. The second-floor owner’s suite offers a private bathroom and a walk-in closet.

8. 2026-01-22
   listed $280,000 Active 393-char remark

   Show marketing remark (393 chars)

   **BRAND NEW LENNAR URBAN VILLAS IN BRIDGELAND** The exciting two-story Bagby II "DB" floorplan from Lennar features an open first floor that highlights a kitchen, a casual dining space and an adjoining family room. Upstairs reveals a game room and two secondary bedrooms that share a full bathroom. The second-floor owner’s suite offers a private bathroom and a walk-in closet.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,916 · $160/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,021 · $502/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,105/yr (+$342/mo · 214.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,486
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,429
• − Property taxes: −$1,916
• − Insurance: −$1,645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,279
• − Management: −$2,279
• − HOA: −$1,392
• − Depreciation: −$9,571
• Taxable loss: −$9,024
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,166
• After-tax cash flow: $-986/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 116,550
• Household income: $143,934
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1700.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 4% Vietnamese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.83%
• Current HPI: 220.2136
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+17.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $328,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-07 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $288,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $291,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $328,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $280,000 HARMLS