65 White Magnolia Cir #55 · Lakeway, TX 78734

$459,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,133 sqft · SingleFamily · 40 Days on market

Built 2005 8,755 sqft lot $216/sqft · 14% below area Est $537k · 14% under $150/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +6.4/30.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW FLOORS INSTALLED on lower level: Luxury Laminant in kitchen, living, dining and lower level bedroom. More than $58,000 in recent seller improvements adds tremendous value to this charming home in the popular Courtyard at Preserve, Lakeway neighborhood. With a flexible layout and inviting spaces throughout, it’s designed to adapt easily to the way you live. The main level offers a bedroom and full bath—ideal for guests, extended family, or a private office—while upstairs you’ll find the primary suite alongside two additional bedrooms, creating a comfortable separation of space. Recent updates bring a fresh, cohesive feel to the home, including new interior paint,

Key facts

• 8,755 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2005

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Courtyard HOA; HOA fee $150 monthly; HOA covers common area maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 covered spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Utilities: Electricity available; Propane available; Water available (Municipal Utility District)
• Home design: 2-story property; Faces northeast; Slab foundation; Resale property
• Construction: Frame and stone construction; Composition roof; Built according to public records
• Exterior features: Back yard; Front yard; Landscaped yard; Medium-size trees; Wrought iron fencing; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in oven; Self-cleaning oven; Gas range; Dishwasher; Microwave; Disposal; Vented exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Blinds on windows; Breakfast bar; Separate/formal dining room; Multiple dining areas; Fireplace in the family room
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $460k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-791 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $345k (24.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $321k (30.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $321k (30.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 1.7% in Lakeway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#330 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lake Travis ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #39 of 826 in TX (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 478 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 17,121 units permitted in Travis County in 2024 (11,963 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Travis County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($446k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $321,141 (30.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.37%
• DSCR: 0.67
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $537,330
• List price: $459,900
• Delta: -14.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
45 Cypress Knee Ln #86	0.09mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,173 (+2%)	1mo	$474,000	$218	85
31 Cypress Knee Ln	0.13mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,173 (+2%)	0mo	$475,000	$219	84
36 White Magnolia Cir	0.10mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,173 (+2%)	10mo	$450,000	$207	77
310 Golf Crest Ln	0.36mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,138 (+0%)	5mo	$400,000	$187	74
207 Golf Crest Ln	0.26mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,097 (-2%)	8mo	$499,999	$238	74
1706 Lakeway Blvd	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,004 (-6%)	1mo	$549,900	$274	60
402 Golf Crest Ln	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,343 (+10%)	7mo	$719,000	$307	57
409 Heron Dr	0.64mi	4/2.0	2,291 (+7%)	2mo	$639,000	$279	52
125 Long Wood Ave	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,056 (-4%)	7mo	$555,000	$270	52
408 Hazeltine Dr	0.61mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,316 (+9%)	3mo	$598,000	$258	48
36 Green Terrace Cv	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,858 (-13%)	12mo	$519,000	$279	46
410 Rolling Green Dr	0.60mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,359 (+11%)	8mo	$649,900	$275	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-119,726
• Equity at exit: $68,573

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-147,182
• Equity at exit: $39,764

Cash invested: $128,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78734

• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 478
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,211 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,412
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$575 /mo · $6,898/yr
• Insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$150
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$674
• Net cashflow: $-791

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,213

Max offer price $345,405

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $114,975
• Closing costs: $13,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
64 White Magnolia Cir Austin, TX	4.0	3.0	2133	$2,890	$1.35	24d	1	0.04mi
23 Juniper Berry Way #16 Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2173	$2,850	$1.31	14d	1	0.14mi
23 Juniper Berry Way #16 Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2173	$2,949	$1.36	24d	1	0.14mi
1701 Idle Hour Cv Lakeway, TX	3.0	2.5	2577	$3,300	$1.28	24d	1	0.43mi
15101 Canary St Austin, TX	3.0	3.0	2771	$4,600	$1.66	43d	1	0.56mi
409 S Meadowlark St Unit A Lakeway, TX	3.0	2.5	2651	$2,850	$1.08	43d	1	0.58mi
15101 Mettle Dr Austin, TX	3.0	2.5	2200	$3,495	$1.59	4d	1	0.65mi
204 Spellbrook Ln Lakeway, TX	3.0	2.5	2379	$2,695	$1.13	2d	1	0.90mi
204 Spellbrook Ln Lakeway, TX	3.0	2.5	2379	$2,495	$1.05	17d	1	0.90mi
439 Sailmaster St Unit B Lakeway, TX	3.0	2.0	2127	$2,500	$1.18	24d	1	1.22mi
439 Sailmaster St Lakeway, TX	3.0	2.0	2127	$1,795	$0.84	21d	1	1.22mi
2050 Lohmans Spur Rd Unit 1 Lakeway, TX	3.0	2.5	1669	$2,899	$1.74	4d	1	1.30mi
6 Sunview Rd The Hills, TX	3.0	3.5	2590	$3,495	$1.35	4d	1	1.31mi
295 Mooring Cir Unit A Lakeway, TX	4.0	2.0	1550	$2,295	$1.48	4d	1	1.36mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $150 · $1,800/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $459,900 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $459,900 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $459,900 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $459,900 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $459,900 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $459,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $459,900 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $459,900 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $459,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $459,900 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $459,900 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    price $459,900 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $469,000 Active 23 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $469,000 Active 22 DOM
15. 2026-05-16
    price $469,000 1574-char remark
16. 2026-05-07
    listed $475,000 Active 1574-char remark
17. 2025-09-25
    listed Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,537
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,762
• − Property taxes: −$6,898
• − Insurance: −$2,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,083
• − Management: −$3,083
• − HOA: −$1,800
• − Depreciation: −$13,379
• Taxable loss: −$17,767
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,264
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,231/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Travis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826470
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $101,194
• Composite: 55.13/100
• National rank: #1283
• State rank: #39 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lakeway

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #7227

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeway, TX
• County: Travis County · 1,299,254 people
• City population: 22,145
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,145
• Household income: $130,784
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 296.0

Population outlook (Travis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,545,133 people
• By 2030: 1,729,269 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 2,097,596 · +35.8%
• By 2050: 2,463,890 · +59.5%
• By 2075: 3,249,374 · +110.3%
• By 2100: 3,801,868 · +146.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Iranian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Travis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+39.3) · D 68.8% · R 29.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 29.4pp · 2024: 39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+39.3 2020: D+45.0 2016: D+38.9 2012: D+23.9 2008: D+29.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.08%
• Current HPI: 216.0323
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $459,900 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-29 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-16 Price Changed $469,000 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $475,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-09-25 Listed — Unlock MLS