Winton II H Plan · Denham Springs, LA 70726

$233,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,516 sqft · SingleFamily · 486 Days on market

Poor condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

- Open Floor Plan - Four Bedrooms, Two Bathrooms - Two Car Garage - Brick & Siding Exterior - Recessed Can Lighting in Kitchen - Double Master Vanity - Walk-In Master Closet - Separate Master Shower

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Double master vanity
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• RECESSED CAN LIGHTING
• DOUBLE MASTER VANITY
• WALK-IN MASTER CLOSET
• SEPARATE MASTER SHOWER

🏗️ New construction. The $233,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $248,038.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $234k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-160 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (3.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (15.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $197k (15.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 4.0% in Denham Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#29 in LA, #4,939 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 985 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 486 days — a 12% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $196,700 (15.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 486 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.77%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $248,038
• List price: $233,990
• Delta: -5.66%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28374 Middlebrook Way	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,458 (-4%)	5mo	$233,420	$160	83
28380 Middlebrook Way	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,593 (+5%)	3mo	$250,000	$157	78
28232 Middlebrook Way	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,550 (+2%)	6mo	$240,000	$155	74
28536 Middlebrook Way	0.14mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,424 (-6%)	6mo	$229,510	$161	74
28346 Middlebrook Way	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,578 (+4%)	4mo	$247,000	$157	72
9626 S Grand Marsh Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,490 (-2%)	3mo	$235,000	$158	69
9698 S Grand Marsh Ct	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,578 (+4%)	1mo	$255,000	$162	68
28226 Middlebrook Way	0.38mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,557 (+3%)	2mo	$264,900	$170	67
28236 Natchez Trce	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,424 (-6%)	1mo	$234,990	$165	66
28348 Moreau Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,424 (-6%)	2mo	$245,000	$172	66
9279 Cypress Lake Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,701 (+12%)	3mo	$265,000	$156	49
9277 Yellowfin Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,355 (-11%)	3mo	$229,000	$169	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-48,710
• Equity at exit: $36,983

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-48,522
• Equity at exit: $21,446

Cash invested: $69,451 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70726

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 985
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,967 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,301
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$310 /mo · $3,721/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,170

Max offer price $224,856

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $11	-5% $-74	+0% $-160	+5% $-246	+10% $-332
Rent	-10% $-316	-5% $-238	+0% $-160	+5% $-83	+10% $-5
Rate	-1.0pp $-35	-0.5pp $-97	base $-160	+0.5pp $-224	+1.0pp $-290

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,009
• Closing costs: $7,441
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
28219 Grand Marsh Ct Denham Springs, LA	3.0	2.0	1551	$1,800	$1.16	45d	1	0.36mi
8447 Florida Blvd Denham Springs, LA	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1410	$1,825	$1.29	16d	7	0.67mi
10365 Fountain Ln Denham Springs, LA	3.0	3.0	1875	$2,200	$1.17	16d	1	0.96mi
10293 Cassle Rd Denham Springs, LA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1113	$2,054	$1.84	16d	23	1.00mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $233,990 Active 486 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $233,990 Active 483 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $233,990 Active 482 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $233,990 Active 481 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $233,990 Active 480 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $233,990 Active 478 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $233,990 Active 477 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $233,990 Active 475 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $233,990 Active 473 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $233,990 Active 472 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $233,990 Active 468 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $233,990 Active 467 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $233,990 Active 466 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $233,990 Active 465 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $233,990 Active 464 DOM
16. 2025-03-17
    price $233,990 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    - Open Floor Plan - Four Bedrooms, Two Bathrooms - Two Car Garage - Brick & Siding Exterior - Recessed Can Lighting in Kitchen - Double Master Vanity - Walk-In Master Closet - Separate Master Shower

17. 2025-02-20
    listed $231,990 Active 204-char remark

    Show marketing remark (204 chars)

    - Open Floor Plan - Four Bedrooms, Two Bathrooms - Two Car Garage - Brick & Siding Exterior - Recessed Can Lighting in Kitchen - Double Master Vanity - Walk-In Master Closet - Separate Master Shower

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,604
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,894
• − Property taxes: −$3,721
• − Insurance: −$1,240
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,888
• − Management: −$1,888
• − Depreciation: −$7,216
• Taxable loss: −$6,243
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,498
• After-tax cash flow: $-424/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This home requires extensive repairs and updates to its exterior, interior, HVAC, and landscaping to improve its condition and increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — The siding appears to be peeling and in need of replacement.
• Major roof — The roof appears to be in poor condition and may need to be replaced.
• Major flooring — The flooring appears to be in poor condition and may need to be replaced.
• Major interior walls/paint — The interior walls and paint appear to be in poor condition and may need to be repainted.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — The HVAC and mechanical systems appear to be in poor condition and may need to be replaced or repaired.
• Major landscaping — The landscaping appears to be in poor condition and may need to be replaced or reworked.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale exterior siding replacement — A new exterior siding will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value.
• Resale roof replacement — A new roof will improve the home's structural integrity and increase its resale value.
• Resale flooring replacement — New flooring will improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value.
• Resale painting — Repainting the interior walls and exterior will improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value.
• Both HVAC replacement — A new HVAC system will improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value.
• Resale landscaping — A new landscaping plan will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · The siding appears to be peeling and in need of replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · The roof appears to be in poor condition and may need to be replaced.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · The flooring appears to be in poor condition and may need to be replaced.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · The interior walls and paint appear to be in poor condition and may need to be repainted.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · The HVAC and mechanical systems appear to be in poor condition and may need to be replaced or repaired.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · The landscaping appears to be in poor condition and may need to be replaced or reworked.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale exterior siding replacement — A new exterior siding will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale roof replacement — A new roof will improve the home's structural integrity and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale flooring replacement — New flooring will improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale painting — Repainting the interior walls and exterior will improve the home's appearance and increase its resale value. ↑
• Both HVAC replacement — A new HVAC system will improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale landscaping — A new landscaping plan will improve the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $56,755
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3811
• State rank: #13 of 98 in LA

Livability — Denham Springs

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #29
• US rank: #4939

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Livingston Parish · 87,496 people
• City population: 63,575
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 63,575
• Household income: $78,621
• Rent vs Own: 27.0% rent · 73.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1211.0

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,511 people
• By 2030: 168,241 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 186,252 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 201,516 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 231,217 · +45.9%
• By 2100: 241,697 · +52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.1% · R 83.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+70.0 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+70.4 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.37%
• Current HPI: 170.2207
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.83%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+0.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-03-17 Price Changed $233,990 Zillow
• 2025-02-20 Listed $231,990 Zillow