146063535 Plan · Zephyrhills, FL 33540

$169,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,575 sqft · Manufactured · 95 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Good condition $108/sqft · 24% below area Est $222k · 24% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -4.1

Listing remarks

55+ age qualified community. Welcome to Forest Lake Estates, a 55+ age qualified community where you can find yourself in a dream home! This stunning 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home is on a large corner lot. At Forest Lake Estates you will enjoy an abundance of amenities including swimming pools, hot tub, putt-putt golf, tennis/pickleball courts, shuffleboard, indoor and outdoor gyms, dog parks, billiards and much more. We are minutes from shopping, restaurants, entertainment and a short drive from Florida's award-winning gulf coast beaches. This home has 1,575 sq ft of beautifully designed living space located in Zephyrhills, FL.

Key facts

• Hot tub
• Putt putt golf
• Large corner lot

Tags

• LARGE CORNER LOT
• SWIMMING POOLS
• HOT TUB
• PUTT PUTT GOLF
• TENNIS PICKLEBALL COURTS
• SHUFFLEBOARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-958/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $139k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $139k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.0% in Zephyrhills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#330 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Woodland Elementary School (math 30% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,862 of 2,144 statewide, top 88%, 802 students, 82% FRL); Raymond B. Stewart Middle School (math 33% / reading 30%, grade F, #453 of 571 statewide, top 81%, 988 students, 77% FRL); Zephyrhills High School (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #359 of 667 statewide, top 55%, 1,656 students, 70% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 48% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Pasco average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 357 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $138,523 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.73%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.01%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $222,500
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: -23.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
41033 Lynbrook Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-4%)	24mo	$332,000	$220	62
7207 Elwood Rd	0.69mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,580 (+0%)	2mo	$290,000	$184	58
7249 Berry Rd	1.32mi	3/2.0	1,534 (-3%)	14mo	$343,000	$224	49
6835 Elwood Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,736 (+10%)	27mo	$360,000	$207	45
41310 Merrick Rd	0.89mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+14%)	3mo	$155,000	$86	38
40019 Pretty Redbird Rd	1.28mi	3/2.0	1,288 (-18%)	11mo	$250,000	$194	30
40019 Proud Mockingbird Rd	1.26mi	3/1.5	1,192 (-24%)	14mo	$275,000	$231	26
40126 Proud Mockingbird Rd	1.15mi	3/2.5	1,232 (-22%)	18mo	$310,000	$252	23
40111 Pretty Redbird Rd	1.20mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-24%)	10mo	$150,000	$125	23
40202 Proud Mockingbird Rd	1.09mi	3/2.0	1,280 (-19%)	24mo	$307,000	$240	20
7029 Forbes Rd	1.33mi	3/2.0	1,952 (+24%)	31mo	$285,000	$146	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-32,593
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-34,842
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 24 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 144.0 mo (1%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $169,900 ($122/sqft)
• Median days on market: 1 d
• This list price: 38% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +15.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33540

• Home prices YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 357
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,385 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,548/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$291
• Net cashflow: $-80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,486

Max offer price $158,352

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $38	-5% $-21	+0% $-80	+5% $-139	+10% $-197
Rent	-10% $-189	-5% $-135	+0% $-80	+5% $-25	+10% $30
Rate	-1.0pp $6	-0.5pp $-37	base $-80	+0.5pp $-124	+1.0pp $-169

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
40984 Roselle Loop Zephyrhills, FL	3.0	2.0	1520	$1,799	$1.18	38d	1	0.20mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $169,900

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan home
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,575 (plan)
• Exterior features: Property located at 41200 Roselle Loop, Zephyrhills FL 33540

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Interior features: Plan-built new construction

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-07-21
   days on market $169,900 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-07-20
   days on market $169,900 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-07-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-07-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-07-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 89 DOM
6. 2026-07-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-07-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 86 DOM
8. 2026-07-11
   days on market $169,900 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-07-10
   days on market $169,900 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-07-09
    days on market $169,900 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-07-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-07-06
    days on market $169,900 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-07-06
    days on market $169,900 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-07-05
    days on market $169,900 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-07-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-07-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 76 DOM
17. 2026-07-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 75 DOM
18. 2026-06-30
    days on market $169,900 Active 74 DOM
19. 2026-06-29
    days on market $169,900 Active 73 DOM
20. 2026-06-28
    days on market $169,900 Active 72 DOM
21. 2026-06-27
    days on market $169,900 Active 71 DOM
22. 2026-06-26
    days on market $169,900 Active 70 DOM
23. 2026-06-24
    days on market $169,900 Active 68 DOM
24. 2026-06-18
    days on market $169,900 Active 62 DOM
25. 2026-06-17
    days on market $169,900 Active 61 DOM
26. 2026-06-16
    days on market $169,900 Active 60 DOM
27. 2026-06-15
    days on market $169,900 Active 59 DOM
28. 2026-06-13
    days on market $169,900 Active 57 DOM
29. 2026-06-09
    days on market $169,900 Active 53 DOM
30. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,900 Active 52 DOM
31. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 51 DOM
32. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,900 Active 48 DOM
33. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 47 DOM
34. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 46 DOM
35. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 45 DOM
36. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 44 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,623
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$2,548
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,330
• − Management: −$1,330
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$3,894
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$935
• After-tax cash flow: $-23/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,875–$23,625 screening

This home is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It has a good condition score of 80 and is in a 55+ age-qualified community with various amenities. The home has a good potential for increasing its resale value with some exterior painting and window replacement.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint the exterior siding — Painting the exterior siding can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its resale value. ↑
• Resale Replace any damaged windows — Replacing damaged windows can improve the home's energy efficiency and increase its resale value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 33/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Woodland Elementary School F FL #1,862/2,144 Nat'l #26,279/41,679 Middle Raymond B. Stewart Middle School F FL #453/571 Nat'l #8,497/14,009 High Zephyrhills High School F FL #359/667 Nat'l #9,405/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Zephyrhills

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #330
• US rank: #5760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco · 570,045 people
• City population: 48,266
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 11,098
• Household income: $55,426
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

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Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.57%
• Current HPI: 370.8747
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $169,900

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan home
• Construction: Living area approximately 1,575 (plan)
• Exterior features: Property located at 41200 Roselle Loop, Zephyrhills FL 33540

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (full)
• Interior features: Plan-built new construction