849 Champions Dr · Beech Mountain Lakes, PA 18222

$288,590

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,510 sqft · Townhouse · 194 Days on market

Built 2025 $191/sqft · at area comps Est $287k · at est. $20/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOVE IN READY!!The Greens at Sand Springs are both elegant and spacious, with a floorplan that will make you feel right at home. Upon entering, you'll be welcomed by an open-concept first floor, featuring a Kitchen that has everything you need for cooking and entertaining complete with a large island for extra seating, ample counter space, a convenient pantry.

Key facts

• Ample counter space
• Large island
• Convenient pantry

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FIRST FLOOR
• LARGE ISLAND
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• CONVENIENT PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-305 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (25.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (25.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.7% in Beech Mountain Lakes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#698 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hazleton Area SD (suburban): math 18% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #476 of 539 in PA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Drums El/Ms (math 17% / reading 53%, grade F, #1,042 of 1,518 statewide, top 69%, 784 students, 100% FRL); Hazleton Area Hs (math 53% / reading 8%, grade F, #347 of 437 statewide, top 79%, 3,795 students, 83% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 60% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 136 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 349 units permitted in Luzerne County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Luzerne County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 194 days — a 12% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $216,390 (25.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 194 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.03%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.53%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $286,676
• List price: $288,590
• Delta: 0.67%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
846 Champions Dr	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,495 (-1%)	0mo	$305,900	$205	97
810 Champions Dr	0.18mi	3/2.5	1,510 (0%)	2mo	$292,500	$194	90
818 Champions Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,495 (-1%)	3mo	$255,000	$171	88
857 Champions Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,510 (0%)	13mo	$300,000	$199	84
852 Champions Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,510 (0%)	15mo	$300,000	$199	83
865 Champions Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5	1,510 (0%)	15mo	$275,000	$182	83
16 Nicholas Court Dr	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,500 (-1%)	9mo	$298,500	$199	73
382 Long Run Rd	0.03mi	3/2.5	1,309 (-13%)	11mo	$259,500	$198	67
272 Refuge Cir	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,555 (+3%)	9mo	$285,000	$183	53
259 Refuge Cir	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,640 (+9%)	13mo	$295,000	$180	47
218 Refuge Cir	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,555 (+3%)	15mo	$289,900	$186	47
211 Refuge Cir	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,654 (+10%)	14mo	$280,000	$169	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.71×
• Total profit: $137,799
• Equity at exit: $259,985

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.21×
• Total profit: $421,157
• Equity at exit: $560,667

Cash invested: $80,805 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18222

• Home prices YoY: 10.2%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,164 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,513
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$361 /mo · $4,329/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$20
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,550

Max offer price $244,471

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-105	-5% $-205	+0% $-305	+5% $-405	+10% $-504
Rent	-10% $-476	-5% $-390	+0% $-305	+5% $-219	+10% $-134
Rate	-1.0pp $-160	-0.5pp $-231	base $-305	+0.5pp $-380	+1.0pp $-456

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,148
• Closing costs: $8,658
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
860 Champions Dr Drums, PA	3.0	2.5	1510	$2,200	$1.46	45d	1	0.10mi
16 Scotia Dr Drums, PA	3.0	2.5	1650	$2,240	$1.36	23d	1	0.96mi
11 Lazy Ln Drums, PA	2.0	2.0	1063	$1,815	$1.71	15d	1	1.08mi
227 Sand Springs Dr Drums, PA	2.0	2.0	1052	$1,805	$1.72	23d	1	1.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $20 · $240/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $288,590 Pending 194 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $288,590 Active 194 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $288,590 Active 193 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $288,590 Active 192 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $288,590 Active 191 DOM
6. 2026-03-12
   status Active 362-char remark

   Show marketing remark (362 chars)

   MOVE IN READY!!The Greens at Sand Springs are both elegant and spacious, with a floorplan that will make you feel right at home. Upon entering, you'll be welcomed by an open-concept first floor, featuring a Kitchen that has everything you need for cooking and entertaining complete with a large island for extra seating, ample counter space, a convenient pantry.

7. 2026-02-16
   status Pending 362-char remark

   Show marketing remark (362 chars)

   MOVE IN READY!!The Greens at Sand Springs are both elegant and spacious, with a floorplan that will make you feel right at home. Upon entering, you'll be welcomed by an open-concept first floor, featuring a Kitchen that has everything you need for cooking and entertaining complete with a large island for extra seating, ample counter space, a convenient pantry.

8. 2025-10-27
   listed $288,590 Active 362-char remark

   Show marketing remark (362 chars)

   MOVE IN READY!!The Greens at Sand Springs are both elegant and spacious, with a floorplan that will make you feel right at home. Upon entering, you'll be welcomed by an open-concept first floor, featuring a Kitchen that has everything you need for cooking and entertaining complete with a large island for extra seating, ample counter space, a convenient pantry.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,967
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,166
• − Property taxes: −$4,329
• − Insurance: −$1,443
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,077
• − Management: −$2,077
• − HOA: −$240
• − Depreciation: −$8,395
• Taxable loss: −$8,761
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,103
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,556/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazleton Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4211700
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $42,247
• Composite: 20.44/100
• National rank: #8582
• State rank: #476 of 539 in PA

Livability — Beech Mountain Lakes

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #698
• US rank: #6837

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,946

Population outlook (Luzerne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,505 people
• By 2030: 319,943 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 322,643 · +1.0%
• By 2050: 330,817 · +3.5%
• By 2075: 379,145 · +18.7%
• By 2100: 431,908 · +35.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Luzerne

• 2024 margin: R (+19.2) · D 40.0% · R 59.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 8.4pp · 2024: -19.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.2 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+19.6 2012: D+4.8 2008: D+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.01%
• Current HPI: 302.4923
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Relisted — LCAR
• 2026-02-16 Pending — LCAR
• 2025-10-27 Listed $288,590 LCAR