5938 Welcome Rd Unit H22 · Bayshore Gardens, FL 34207

$99,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 744 sqft · Condo public records · 440 Days on market

Built 1970 $288/mo HOA · 23% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * * Wow! Major 30K Price Reduction * * This is one of the lowest priced 2-bedroom condos available anywhere! * This turnkey, fully furnished vibrant and welcoming 55+ community, is the perfect home for you! Just bring your personal belongings and start living the life you've always dreamed of without the hassle of moving furniture. This 2 Bedrooms & 1 Bathroom is perfectly sized for comfort and ease, offering a peaceful retreat. The screened-in balcony offers serene views of beautiful vegetation, making it the perfect spot for your morning coffee or evening relaxation. Featuring an in-unit washer and dryer for your convenience, keeping your home clean and fresh is easier than ev

Key facts

• Screened-in balcony
• $288 HOA
• Community pool

Tags

• SCREENED-IN BALCONY
• IN-UNIT WASHER AND DRYER
• QUICK ACCESS TO BEACH
• CLOSE TO SHOPS AND RESTAURANTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Total monthly fees $288 (total annual fees $3,456); Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $288 covering pool, clubhouse, management, maintenance (structure and grounds), trash, common area taxes, recreational facilities, escrow reserves and fidelity bond; Association name: Casey Management - Jenny Warren; Association approval required; Buyer approval required; Community amenities include pool, clubhouse, community mailbox and sidewalks; Senior community (pets not allowed)

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt-paved road access
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Condominium; One story; Second-floor unit; East-facing
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of building H
• Exterior features: Balcony; Sliding doors; Storage; Sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Range hood; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer inside the unit; Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-20 ($-235/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $96k (3.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.7% in Bayshore Gardens — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#72 in FL, #1,180 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute C-, employment F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bayshore Elementary School (math 51% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,345 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 701 students, 72% FRL); Electa Lee Magnet Middle School (math 27% / reading 28%, grade F, #495 of 571 statewide, top 87%, 759 students, 68% FRL); Bayshore High School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 1,435 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 362 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $688 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 440 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 440 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.84%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-20,782
• Equity at exit: $14,836

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-32,849
• Equity at exit: $8,603

Cash invested: $27,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34207

• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 362
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,236 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$522
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,733/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$288
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$259
• Net cashflow: $-20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,260

Max offer price $96,044

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $37	-5% $9	+0% $-20	+5% $-48	+10% $-76
Rent	-10% $-117	-5% $-68	+0% $-20	+5% $29	+10% $78
Rate	-1.0pp $31	-0.5pp $6	base $-20	+0.5pp $-45	+1.0pp $-72

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,875
• Closing costs: $2,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1839 Sunny Dr Unit E36 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,350	$2.34	25d	1	0.07mi
1825 Flamingo Blvd Unit O26 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,000	$1.74	25d	1	0.07mi
5955 Palm Ln Unit A33 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$1,150	$1.55	16d	1	0.08mi
5858 Welcome Rd Unit J23 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$1,150	$1.55	5d	1	0.09mi
1874 Sunny Dr Unit F32 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	744	$950	$1.28	25d	1	0.10mi
1875 Sunny Dr Unit G32 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,100	$1.91	25d	1	0.11mi
1859 Restful Dr Unit L26 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,150	$2.00	25d	1	0.11mi
5888 17th St W Unit C23 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,100	$1.91	25d	1	0.12mi
1807 Restful Dr Unit N4 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	733	$1,150	$1.57	5d	1	0.13mi
2028 Canal Dr Unit M26 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,050	$1.82	12d	1	0.14mi
5908 17th St W Unit C36 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$950	$1.65	17d	1	0.16mi
1566 Pleasant Rd Unit J24 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	733	$1,150	$1.57	25d	1	0.18mi
2547 60th Ave W Unit L-36 Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	576	$1,100	$1.91	17d	1	0.27mi
5531 16th St W Unit 5537 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,650	$2.20	5d	1	0.57mi
5400 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	902	$1,651	$1.83	25d	1	0.92mi
5310 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	789	$1,450	$1.84	5d	4	0.93mi
5310 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	789	$1,550	$1.96	21d	5	0.93mi
5310 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	789	$1,450	$1.84	13d	5	0.93mi
6050 34th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0	734	$1,610	$2.19	3d	19	0.97mi
2803 52nd Avenue Dr W Unit 2803 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,599	$2.13	25d	1	1.13mi
6916 Marlin Ln Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	430	$1,250	$2.91	25d	1	1.21mi
5001 22nd St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	729	$1,700	$2.33	17d	1	1.28mi
915 50th Avenue Plz W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	25d	1	1.35mi
205 52nd Avenue Dr W Bradenton, FL	1.0	1.0	528	$1,200	$2.27	25d	1	1.41mi
2835 50th Ave W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,610	$1.89	5d	16	1.42mi
707 50th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	730	$1,150	$1.58	25d	1	1.47mi
110 52nd Avenue Ter E Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	684	$1,450	$2.12	25d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $288 · $3,456/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $99,500 Active 440 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,500 Active 437 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,500 Active 436 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,500 Active 435 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,500 Active 434 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,500 Active 432 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,500 Active 431 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,500 Active 429 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,500 Active 428 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,500 Active 427 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $99,500 Active 426 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,500 Active 422 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,500 Active 421 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,500 Active 420 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,500 Active 419 DOM
16. 2026-02-26
    price $99,500
17. 2026-01-26
    status Active
18. 2026-01-26
    price $105,000
19. 2026-01-01
    historical
20. 2025-09-23
    status Active
21. 2025-08-06
    status Pending
22. 2025-07-10
    status Active
23. 2025-07-09
    historical
24. 2025-04-11
    price $119,900
25. 2025-01-23
    listed $129,900 Active
26. 2024-09-21
    historical
27. 2024-06-21
    status Active
28. 2024-06-21
    price $129,900
29. 2024-06-07
    historical
30. 2024-03-12
    listed $139,900 Active
31. 2022-04-07
    soldstatus $120,000
32. 2002-04-03
    soldstatus $42,000
33. 1994-04-11
    soldstatus $25,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,733 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,733 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,826
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,574
• − Property taxes: −$1,733
• − Insurance: −$498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,186
• − Management: −$1,186
• − HOA: −$3,456
• − Depreciation: −$2,895
• Taxable loss: −$1,700
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$408
• After-tax cash flow: $173/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayshore Gardens

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #1180

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayshore Gardens, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,840
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,081
• Household income: $45,010
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1474.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -305.32%
• Current HPI: 369.9899
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.50%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+290.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-26 Price Changed $99,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-26 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-26 Price Changed $105,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-23 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-10 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-11 Price Changed $119,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-23 Listed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-21 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-21 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-21 Price Changed $129,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-07 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-12 Listed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-07 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2002-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records
• 1994-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $25,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,733 · -10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.