309 1st · Johnsonburg, PA 15845

$31,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 9,999 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Poor condition 4,356 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Listed 33 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking; 2 parking spaces (total)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: 2-story frame house; Asphalt roof; Resale property
• Construction: Frame construction; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: 38 x 120 x 36 x 119 lot dimensions

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove; Some electric appliances
• Flooring: Hardwood; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Hardwood and vinyl flooring; Walk-up basement access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $32k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $702 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $32k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#825 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Johnsonburg Area SD (rural): math 40% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 53 units permitted in Elk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($218 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (9.8% local appreciation)).
• Elk County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.2% of price.

Recommended offer $30,555 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 33.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 95.56%
• DSCR: 5.25
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.98×
• Total profit: $61,553
• Equity at exit: $27,953

10-year hold

• IRR: 99.8%
• Equity multiple: 17.57×
• Total profit: $146,105
• Equity at exit: $59,835

Cash invested: $8,820 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15845

• Home prices YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,255 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$165
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,331/yr
• Insurance: −$13
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $702

Break-even live

Break-even rent $366

Max offer price $31,500

Occupancy floor 39%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,875
• Closing costs: $945
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $31,500 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $31,500 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $31,500 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $31,500 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $31,500 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $31,500 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $31,500 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $31,500 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $31,500 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $31,500 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $31,500 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $31,500 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $31,500 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $31,500 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    listed $31,500 Active 343-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,331 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,331 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,062
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,764
• − Property taxes: −$1,331
• − Insurance: −$158
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,205
• − Management: −$1,205
• − Depreciation: −$916
• Taxable income: $8,483
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,036
• After-tax cash flow: $6,392/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive renovations to bring it up to modern standards and improve its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen appliances — need replacement for functionality
• Major bathroom fixtures — need replacement for functionality
• Major roof — visible wear and tear
• Major exterior siding — weathered and peeling
• Major flooring — worn and uneven
• Major interior walls/paint — dated and peeling
• Major windows — old and possibly drafty
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — old and possibly inefficient

Value-add opportunities

• Resale new kitchen appliances — modernizes the space and improves functionality
• Resale new bathroom fixtures — modernizes the space and improves functionality
• Resale new roof — improves the home's appearance and functionality
• Resale new exterior siding — improves the home's appearance and functionality
• Resale new flooring — improves the home's appearance and functionality
• Resale new interior walls/paint — improves the home's appearance and functionality
• Resale new windows — improves the home's appearance and functionality
• Resale new HVAC/mechanicals — improves the home's functionality and energy efficiency
• Both landscaping — improves the home's curb appeal and functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen appliances · need replacement for functionality	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · need replacement for functionality	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · visible wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · weathered and peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · worn and uneven	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · dated and peeling	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · old and possibly drafty	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · old and possibly inefficient	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$120,000–400,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale new kitchen appliances — modernizes the space and improves functionality ↑
• Resale new bathroom fixtures — modernizes the space and improves functionality ↑
• Resale new roof — improves the home's appearance and functionality ↑
• Resale new exterior siding — improves the home's appearance and functionality ↑
• Resale new flooring — improves the home's appearance and functionality ↑
• Resale new interior walls/paint — improves the home's appearance and functionality ↑
• Resale new windows — improves the home's appearance and functionality ↑
• Resale new HVAC/mechanicals — improves the home's functionality and energy efficiency ↑
• Both landscaping — improves the home's curb appeal and functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnsonburg Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4212570
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $42,329
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3343
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Johnsonburg

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #825
• US rank: #8590

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Johnsonburg, PA
• Population (ZIP): 3,109

Population outlook (Elk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,567 people
• By 2030: 27,172 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 24,111 · -15.6%
• By 2050: 20,967 · -26.6%
• By 2075: 15,355 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 10,418 · -63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Slovak 4% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Elk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.0) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -51.3pp toward R · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: -47.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.0 2020: R+45.1 2016: R+43.8 2012: R+15.7 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.82%
• Current HPI: 177.5221
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $31,500 West Penn MLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,331 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.