12225 Saddle Strap Row · Bayonet Point, FL 34667

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,464 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1973 3,091 sqft lot $28/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.3/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wow. Your tropical paradise awaits! This is a villa-style private PATIO HOME offering maintenance-free living having NO CONDO OR VILLA FEES (just an HOA fee of $75 per quarter). Wonderful location in beautiful Beacon Woods on Florida's West Coast. Here is where affordable living is still possible while having resort-style amenities such as clubhouse, swimming pool, tennis, park, 18-hole golf course and more! We are pleased to present this new listing that will provide its new owner lots of privacy and serenity. No side neighbors (there is a community owned unbuildable lot next door to the home). Privacy walls between homes make these unique structures appealing in so many ways. Super high ceilings and a lanai PLUS separate patio are rare architectural features. You're going to love the open floor plan with so many living spaces. This home boasts almost 1500 SF living space. Seller is leaving most of the furniture (minus personal items) for the new buyer. This is a split plan, expansive flexible 3-BR (could even become 4 BR or office with minor modifications), 2 full bathroom home with an oversized 2-car garage. The living room is HUGE! It has outstanding views of the tropical lanai with water feature. The galley kitchen overlooks the family room and gorgeous back patio, which is also accessible from the master bedroom. You're going to love it here. It's a must see! NEW ROOF!

Key facts

• 3,091 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $456 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 5.3% in Bayonet Point — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#485 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D+, schools F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 790 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.05%
• DSCR: 1.67
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $260,592
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8204 Heartwood Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,519 (+4%)	1mo	$270,000	$178	78
8200 Mill Creek Ln	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,519 (+4%)	2mo	$242,500	$160	76
12302 Quail Run Row	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,517 (+4%)	0mo	$160,000	$105	74
8026 Hunters Whip Row Cir	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,308 (-11%)	1mo	$270,000	$206	72
12711 Shell Point Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,464 (0%)	0mo	$92,500	$63	71
12412 Rodeo Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-10%)	2mo	$216,000	$164	61
7901 Bell Dr	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,310 (-10%)	0mo	$240,000	$183	54
8501 Mill Creek Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,615 (+10%)	0mo	$260,000	$161	52
11703 Oceanside Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,655 (+13%)	1mo	$330,000	$199	50
7538 Gulf Highlands Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,310 (-10%)	0mo	$269,900	$206	49
7401 Country Club Dr	0.74mi	3/3.0	1,350 (-8%)	1mo	$165,000	$122	48
12406 Parchment Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,675 (+14%)	1mo	$367,000	$219	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,607
• Equity at exit: $19,383

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $18,852
• Equity at exit: $11,240

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34667

• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 790
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,880 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$265 /mo · $3,182/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$28
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $456

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,303

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12213 Saddle Strap Row Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1684	$1,990	$1.18	17d	1	0.03mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	17d	1	0.24mi
12041 Hoosier Ct #204 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,495	$1.36	24d	1	0.24mi
7602 Danube Dr Unit 7602 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,600	$1.42	24d	1	0.26mi
7616 Danube Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1125	$1,350	$1.20	24d	1	0.28mi
12027 Hoosier Ct #203 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1103	$1,550	$1.41	24d	1	0.28mi
11902 Oceanside Dr Port Richey, FL	4.0	2.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	2d	1	0.36mi
12215 Meadowbrook Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1519	$1,850	$1.22	23d	1	0.38mi
12200 Hudson Ridge Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1107	$1,704	$1.54	2d	10	0.39mi
8304 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,650	$1.65	24d	1	0.46mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	21d	1	0.46mi
7924 Halsey Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	4d	1	0.46mi
8312 Mill Creek Ln Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1152	$1,600	$1.39	24d	1	0.50mi
11630 Paige Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1152	$1,680	$1.46	12d	1	0.58mi
7433 Greystone Dr #7433 Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1029	$1,300	$1.26	17d	1	0.60mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	11d	1	0.62mi
11611 Constance Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	984	$1,540	$1.57	24d	1	0.62mi
11610 Meadow Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1128	$1,570	$1.39	12d	1	0.62mi
7539 Gulf Highlands Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	1.5	936	$1,550	$1.66	4d	1	0.70mi
7715 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1080	$1,495	$1.38	3d	1	0.70mi
12702 Social Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,500	$1.45	4d	1	0.73mi
7804 Topay Ln Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,811	$1.61	4d	1	0.75mi
12809 College Hill Dr Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,780	$1.60	4d	1	0.75mi
7608 Sue Ellen Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1310	$2,400	$1.83	24d	1	0.76mi
8305 Sandwedge Cir Unit A Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1144	$1,450	$1.27	21d	1	0.85mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$1,695	$1.17	20d	1	0.86mi
7530 Judith Cres Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1446	$2,200	$1.52	24d	1	0.86mi
7300 Country Club Dr Hudson, FL	2.0	1.0	926	$1,400	$1.51	2d	1	0.88mi
8161 Braddock Cir #1 Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,595	$1.59	17d	1	0.92mi
7730 Greybirch Ter Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.5	1773	$1,850	$1.04	23d	1	0.93mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Unit NA Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,900	$1.46	24d	1	0.95mi
7520 Hawthorn Dr Port Richey, FL	2.0	2.0	1303	$1,800	$1.38	23d	1	0.95mi
7531 Greybirch Ter Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,000	$1.43	24d	1	0.95mi
11241 Yewtree Ave Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,950	$1.49	23d	1	0.97mi
11138 Yellowwood Ln Unit NA Port Richey, FL	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,800	$1.80	24d	1	1.05mi
13121 Shadberry Ln Hudson, FL	3.0	2.0	1771	$1,889	$1.07	2d	1	1.10mi
7540 Venice Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1394	$1,775	$1.27	4d	1	1.12mi
7705 Ilex Dr Port Richey, FL	3.0	2.0	1349	$2,000	$1.48	24d	1	1.15mi
13102 Pembrook Ct Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1221	$1,575	$1.29	24d	1	1.16mi
13013 Sawmill Way Hudson, FL	2.0	2.0	1519	$1,790	$1.18	4d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $28 · $336/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 10 events

1. 2025-08-07
   status Pending
2. 2025-08-06
   listed $130,000 Active
3. 2022-05-24
   soldstatus $255,000
4. 2022-05-16
   soldstatus $255,000 Closed 1397-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1397 chars)

   Wow. Your tropical paradise awaits! This is a villa-style private PATIO HOME offering maintenance-free living having NO CONDO OR VILLA FEES (just an HOA fee of $75 per quarter). Wonderful location in beautiful Beacon Woods on Florida's West Coast. Here is where affordable living is still possible while having resort-style amenities such as clubhouse, swimming pool, tennis, park, 18-hole golf course and more! We are pleased to present this new listing that will provide its new owner lots of privacy and serenity. No side neighbors (there is a community owned unbuildable lot next door to the home). Privacy walls between homes make these unique structures appealing in so many ways. Super high ceilings and a lanai PLUS separate patio are rare architectural features. You're going to love the open floor plan with so many living spaces. This home boasts almost 1500 SF living space. Seller is leaving most of the furniture (minus personal items) for the new buyer. This is a split plan, expansive flexible 3-BR (could even become 4 BR or office with minor modifications), 2 full bathroom home with an oversized 2-car garage. The living room is HUGE! It has outstanding views of the tropical lanai with water feature. The galley kitchen overlooks the family room and gorgeous back patio, which is also accessible from the master bedroom. You're going to love it here. It's a must see! NEW ROOF!

5. 2022-04-11
   status Pending 1397-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1397 chars)

   Wow. Your tropical paradise awaits! This is a villa-style private PATIO HOME offering maintenance-free living having NO CONDO OR VILLA FEES (just an HOA fee of $75 per quarter). Wonderful location in beautiful Beacon Woods on Florida's West Coast. Here is where affordable living is still possible while having resort-style amenities such as clubhouse, swimming pool, tennis, park, 18-hole golf course and more! We are pleased to present this new listing that will provide its new owner lots of privacy and serenity. No side neighbors (there is a community owned unbuildable lot next door to the home). Privacy walls between homes make these unique structures appealing in so many ways. Super high ceilings and a lanai PLUS separate patio are rare architectural features. You're going to love the open floor plan with so many living spaces. This home boasts almost 1500 SF living space. Seller is leaving most of the furniture (minus personal items) for the new buyer. This is a split plan, expansive flexible 3-BR (could even become 4 BR or office with minor modifications), 2 full bathroom home with an oversized 2-car garage. The living room is HUGE! It has outstanding views of the tropical lanai with water feature. The galley kitchen overlooks the family room and gorgeous back patio, which is also accessible from the master bedroom. You're going to love it here. It's a must see! NEW ROOF!

6. 2022-04-04
   listed $260,000 Active 1397-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1397 chars)

   Wow. Your tropical paradise awaits! This is a villa-style private PATIO HOME offering maintenance-free living having NO CONDO OR VILLA FEES (just an HOA fee of $75 per quarter). Wonderful location in beautiful Beacon Woods on Florida's West Coast. Here is where affordable living is still possible while having resort-style amenities such as clubhouse, swimming pool, tennis, park, 18-hole golf course and more! We are pleased to present this new listing that will provide its new owner lots of privacy and serenity. No side neighbors (there is a community owned unbuildable lot next door to the home). Privacy walls between homes make these unique structures appealing in so many ways. Super high ceilings and a lanai PLUS separate patio are rare architectural features. You're going to love the open floor plan with so many living spaces. This home boasts almost 1500 SF living space. Seller is leaving most of the furniture (minus personal items) for the new buyer. This is a split plan, expansive flexible 3-BR (could even become 4 BR or office with minor modifications), 2 full bathroom home with an oversized 2-car garage. The living room is HUGE! It has outstanding views of the tropical lanai with water feature. The galley kitchen overlooks the family room and gorgeous back patio, which is also accessible from the master bedroom. You're going to love it here. It's a must see! NEW ROOF!

7. 2008-03-14
   soldstatus $104,550 371-char remark

   Show marketing remark (371 chars)

   Open floor plan, 2 large bedrooms, 2 baths, enlarged kitchen. Tropical patio areas w/ koi pond and water fall. Easy maintenance landscape. .. just lock the door and travel! 2 car garage with storage. Great parklike community w/ pool, clubhouseand tennis courts. Quality golf course. Close to hospital. Breaks sellers heart to sell this patio home with court yard privacy.

8. 2007-12-17
   listed $114,900 371-char remark

   Show marketing remark (371 chars)

   Open floor plan, 2 large bedrooms, 2 baths, enlarged kitchen. Tropical patio areas w/ koi pond and water fall. Easy maintenance landscape. .. just lock the door and travel! 2 car garage with storage. Great parklike community w/ pool, clubhouseand tennis courts. Quality golf course. Close to hospital. Breaks sellers heart to sell this patio home with court yard privacy.

9. 2001-06-01
   soldstatus $72,500
10. 1999-01-13
    soldstatus $63,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,182 · $265/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,182 · $265/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,565
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$3,182
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,805
• − Management: −$1,805
• − HOA: −$336
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $3,723
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$894
• After-tax cash flow: $4,584/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayonet Point

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #485
• US rank: #8934

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayonet Point, FL
• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,689
• Household income: $51,280
• Rent vs Own: 23.0% rent · 77.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -183.96%
• Current HPI: 307.5552
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.26%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+104.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-06 Listed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-16 Sold (MLS) $255,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-11 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-04 Listed $260,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-14 Sold (MLS) $104,550 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-12-17 Listed $114,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $72,500 Public Records
• 1999-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $63,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,182 · -4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.