Bonds Plan · Point Baker, FL 32570

$239,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,290 sqft · SingleFamily · 96 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new single-story home offers a modern and low-maintenance layout. Two secondary bedrooms surround a full bathroom at the front of the home, leading to an open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, living and dining areas. A lavish owner's suite is nestled into a private rear corner and features an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• En-suite bathroom
• Single-story home

Tags

• SINGLE-STORY HOME
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $259,990

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan (Bonds); Active new-construction listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1290

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (2 full)
• Interior features: New construction plan (Bonds)

🏗️ New construction. The $239,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $221,880.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $66 ($793/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.2% in Point Baker — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#735 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 360 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,462 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.28%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $221,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7142 Season Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,290 (0%)	1mo	$253,490	$197	99
7054 Tylerwood Ct	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,309 (+2%)	8mo	$225,000	$172	78
7073 Jacobsview Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,475 (+14%)	1mo	$247,000	$167	70
6549 Sinclair St	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,275 (-1%)	8mo	$213,000	$167	61
6583 Stanley Cir	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,448 (+12%)	5mo	$239,000	$165	61
6520 Eagle Crest Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,284 (-0%)	10mo	$229,000	$178	58
6409 Hunter St	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,364 (+6%)	6mo	$197,000	$144	58
6356 Banyan Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,196 (-7%)	4mo	$245,000	$205	51
6568 Sinclair St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,107 (-14%)	2mo	$198,000	$179	49
6502 Starboard Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+15%)	0mo	$208,000	$141	46
6525 Bass Ln	0.69mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,300 (+1%)	18mo	$218,000	$168	42
6425 Bass Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,430 (+11%)	14mo	$253,000	$177	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.7% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-32,324
• Equity at exit: $33,083

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-25,088
• Equity at exit: $19,184

Cash invested: $62,126 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32570

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 360
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,025 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,164
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$277 /mo · $3,328/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,941

Max offer price $221,880

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,470
• Closing costs: $6,656
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,990 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,990 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,990 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,990 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $239,990 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $239,990 Active 88 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,990 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,990 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,990 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $239,990 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,990 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,990 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,990 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,990 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $239,990 Active 77 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,295
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,429
• − Property taxes: −$3,328
• − Insurance: −$1,109
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,944
• − Management: −$1,944
• − Depreciation: −$6,455
• Taxable loss: −$2,913
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$699
• After-tax cash flow: $1,492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Point Baker

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #735
• US rank: #15840

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Point Baker, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,197
• Household income: $77,222
• Rent vs Own: 30.6% rent · 69.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 590.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.06%
• Current HPI: 287.7469
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.70%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B