5181 Connecticut Dr #4 · Carmichael, CA 95841

$207,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 924 sqft · Condo public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1969 $225/sqft · 15% below area Est $245k · 15% under $330/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

GREAT LOOKING 2BD/1BTH CONDO in Sacramento offers a freshly updated interior with new interior paint including kitchen cabinets, new blinds, and new carpet in bedrooms. This upstairs unit includes one bathroom, a single-car garage, and access to on-site built-in pool and shared laundry facilities for added convenience. Well-maintained and move-in ready, with practical amenities in a central location close to shopping centers, restaurants and freeway access.

Key facts

• Move-in ready
• New carpet
• Updated interior

Tags

• UPDATED INTERIOR
• NEW INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW BLINDS
• NEW CARPET
• BUILT-IN POOL
• MOVE-IN READY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory homeowners association; Monthly HOA fee of $330 covering pool and grounds maintenance; Community pool (common facility) and private pool access

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Electric: Other; Public sewer; Public water / Water district; Irrigation from public district
• Home design: Condominium (attached); Single-story; Built in 1969
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Balcony; Curb(s) and landscaped front

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Tile counters
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower combo and window
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Attached deck off the living room; Tile kitchen countertops; Dining and living room combined
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included (ground floor)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $208k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-180 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (15.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (15.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (15.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.6% in Carmichael — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#471 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A-, housing B+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, crime F, commute F.
• San Juan Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #138 of 517 in CA (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 83 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($201k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $172k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,026 (15.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.72%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,178
• List price: $207,500
• Delta: -15.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-50,131
• Equity at exit: $30,939

10-year hold

• IRR: -39.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-77,834
• Equity at exit: $17,941

Cash invested: $58,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95841

• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,750 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,088
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $701/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$330
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-180

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,978

Max offer price $175,648

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,875
• Closing costs: $6,225
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5133 Connecticut Dr #3 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,495	$1.78	22d	1	0.07mi
5129 Connecticut Dr #1 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	795	$1,595	$2.01	16d	1	0.08mi
5100 Garfield Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	917	$1,970	$2.15	43d	1	0.12mi
5121 Garfield Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	813	$1,738	$2.14	23d	2	0.19mi
5755 Callie Ln Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	723	$2,000	$2.76	3d	13	0.25mi
5244 Hackberry Ln Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	712	$1,712	$2.41	43d	1	0.31mi
5300 Winfield Way #2 Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.5	1105	$2,100	$1.90	23d	1	0.38mi
5226 Hemlock St #35 Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	682	$1,650	$2.42	23d	1	0.38mi
5308 Winfield Way #2 Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.5	1105	$2,100	$1.90	43d	1	0.40mi
5425 Garfield Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	787	$1,650	$2.10	20d	5	0.44mi
5322 Hemlock St Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,875	$2.34	1d	2	0.51mi
5402 Mona Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	863	$1,750	$2.03	22d	1	0.52mi
5233 Columbine Way Carmichael, CA	3.0	2.0	1008	$2,375	$2.36	4d	1	0.53mi
4789 Manzanita Ave Carmichael, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	970	$1,775	$1.83	4d	2	0.59mi
6004 Rutland Dr Unit 128 Carmichael, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,495	$1.66	4d	1	0.61mi
5012 Sunshine Ln Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	970	$1,775	$1.83	10d	1	0.65mi
4729 Manzanita Ave Carmichael, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	709	$1,699	$2.39	4d	4	0.67mi
5500 Foothill Garden Ct Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,472	$1.96	1d	2	0.68mi
6005 Rye Way Carmichael, CA	2.0	1.0	832	$1,895	$2.28	43d	1	0.71mi
4901 Little Oak Ln Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,540	$1.68	1d	7	0.71mi
5341 Walnut Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,795	$2.39	1d	6	0.76mi
4930 College Oak Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	670	$1,450	$2.16	1d	1	0.80mi
Venuto Way North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	906	$2,095	$2.31	10d	2	0.83mi
5738 Windmill Way Carmichael, CA	1.0	1.0	652	$1,350	$2.07	2d	3	0.86mi
5501 Keoncrest Cir Unit 1 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,300	$1.73	1d	1	0.87mi
5587 Keoncrest Cir Unit 2 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$2,000	$2.22	1d	1	0.92mi
5718 Manzanita Ave Carmichael, CA	2.0	1.0	980	$2,000	$2.04	43d	1	0.97mi
4841 Myrtle Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	1d	1	0.97mi
4451 Manzanita Ave Carmichael, CA	2.0	1.0	926	$1,800	$1.94	7d	1	0.97mi
5840 Garfield Ave Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,545	$1.82	1d	2	0.97mi
6225 Wildomar Way Carmichael, CA	3.0	1.0	1040	$3,000	$2.88	43d	1	0.98mi
5008 Bremner Way #3 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,650	$1.94	1d	1	0.98mi
5415 College Oak Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,725	$2.03	1d	3	0.99mi
4815 College Oak Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	1000	$1,662	$1.66	7d	2	0.99mi
4494 Mary Lynn Ln Carmichael, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1062	$1,950	$1.84	3d	3	1.01mi
5011 Bremner Way #3 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,700	$2.00	23d	1	1.02mi
5011 Bremner Way #2 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,700	$2.00	1d	1	1.02mi
4728 Amber Ln Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	730	$1,900	$2.60	19d	1	1.02mi
5443 College Oak Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	821	$1,850	$2.25	43d	3	1.02mi
4806 Myrtle Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,338	$2.06	43d	1	1.03mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $330 · $3,960/yr
• Likely covers: pool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $207,500 Pending 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $207,500 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $207,500 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $207,500 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   days on market $207,500 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $207,500 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $207,500 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $207,500 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $207,500 Active 38 DOM
10. 2005-04-13
    soldstatus $172,000
11. 1990-03-19
    soldstatus $55,000
12. 1985-10-03
    soldstatus $41,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $701 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,577 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$876/yr (+$73/mo · 125.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,003
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,623
• − Property taxes: −$701
• − Insurance: −$1,038
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,680
• − Management: −$1,680
• − HOA: −$3,960
• − Depreciation: −$6,036
• Taxable loss: −$5,715
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,372
• After-tax cash flow: $-792/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Juan Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634620
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $55,655
• Composite: 44.07/100
• National rank: #2878
• State rank: #138 of 517 in CA

Livability — Carmichael

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #471
• US rank: #15996

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment B Housing B+ Health & safety C User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carmichael, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 61,440
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,500
• Household income: $61,054
• Rent vs Own: 65.3% rent · 34.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1353.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 9% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 11% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.82%
• Current HPI: 369.8991
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.08%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+314.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2005-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $172,000 Public Records
• 1990-03-19 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 1985-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $41,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $701 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.