22320 W Scotty Ln · Wittmann, AZ 85361

$89,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 288 Days on market

Built 1982 7,464 sqft lot Est $151k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming home on quiet street in highly desired mobile home community. NO HOA. You own the land! Relaxing patio area leads to the comfortable living room where there's plenty of rspaceto entertain or enjoy a quiet evening at home. Good-sized kitchen with plenty of counter space and storage. The dining area has built-in cabinets and is just steps away. Two car carport and one car garage. RV parking.

Key facts

• 7,464 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1982

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property listed by Keller Williams Southern AZ
• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: 1 enclosed garage space; 2 carport spaces; 3 covered parking spaces; 3 open parking spaces
• Utilities: Septic tank; Private water company
• Home design: Manufactured/Mobile home; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Wood frame construction
• Exterior features: Wood frame construction; Fencing details available in remarks; Other roof type

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: See remarks for heating; See remarks for cooling
• Interior features: See remarks for interior details; Has fireplace
• Laundry & utility: See remarks for laundry features

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $89k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $374 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $89k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 3.5% in Wittmann — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#326 in AZ) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, housing C-, amenities F.
• Morristown Elementary District (4251) (rural): math 30% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #315 of 501 in AZ (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Morristown Elementary School (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #398 of 1,109 statewide, top 37%, 147 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 35% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 40% at this address vs 28% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Morristown Elementary District (4251) average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 373 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($615 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 288 days — a 12% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $104k (54%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 288 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.00%
• DSCR: 1.80
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $151,200
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
33412 N 223rd Dr	0.10mi	2/1.0	752 (-10%)	1mo	$135,000	$180	73
33240 N 224th Ave	0.19mi	2/2.0	960 (+14%)	5mo	$135,000	$141	63
22416 W Mellow St	0.24mi	2/2.0	961 (+14%)	14mo	$225,000	$234	54
33223 N 224th Ave	0.22mi	2/1.0	961 (+14%)	15mo	$140,000	$146	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.90×
• Total profit: $72,244
• Equity at exit: $80,178

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.4%
• Equity multiple: 8.78×
• Total profit: $193,965
• Equity at exit: $172,907

Cash invested: $24,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85361

• Home prices YoY: 19.4%
• Active inventory: 373
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,150 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$467
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $371/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $374

Break-even live

Break-even rent $677

Max offer price $89,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,250
• Closing costs: $2,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
33401 N 224th Ave Wittmann, AZ	2.0	1.0	704	$1,150	$1.63	1d	1	0.16mi

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,000 Active 288 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $89,000 Active 287 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $192,985 Active 287 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $192,985 Active 286 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $192,985 Active 285 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $192,985 Active 283 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $192,985 Active 282 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $192,985 Active 279 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $192,985 Active 278 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $192,985 Active 277 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $192,985 Active 274 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $192,985 Active 273 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $192,985 Active 272 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $192,985 Active 271 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $192,985 Active 270 DOM
16. 2025-09-03
    listed $192,985 Active
17. 2023-10-13
    soldstatus $215,000 Closed 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    Charming home on quiet street in highly desired mobile home community. NO HOA. You own the land! Relaxing patio area leads to the comfortable living room where there's plenty of rspaceto entertain or enjoy a quiet evening at home. Good-sized kitchen with plenty of counter space and storage. The dining area has built-in cabinets and is just steps away. Two car carport and one car garage. RV parking.

18. 2023-10-13
    soldstatus $215,000

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    Charming home on quiet street in highly desired mobile home community. NO HOA. You own the land! Relaxing patio area leads to the comfortable living room where there's plenty of rspaceto entertain or enjoy a quiet evening at home. Good-sized kitchen with plenty of counter space and storage. The dining area has built-in cabinets and is just steps away. Two car carport and one car garage. RV parking.

19. 2023-09-07
    status Pending 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    Charming home on quiet street in highly desired mobile home community. NO HOA. You own the land! Relaxing patio area leads to the comfortable living room where there's plenty of rspaceto entertain or enjoy a quiet evening at home. Good-sized kitchen with plenty of counter space and storage. The dining area has built-in cabinets and is just steps away. Two car carport and one car garage. RV parking.

20. 2023-07-22
    status Active 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    Charming home on quiet street in highly desired mobile home community. NO HOA. You own the land! Relaxing patio area leads to the comfortable living room where there's plenty of rspaceto entertain or enjoy a quiet evening at home. Good-sized kitchen with plenty of counter space and storage. The dining area has built-in cabinets and is just steps away. Two car carport and one car garage. RV parking.

21. 2023-06-09
    historical 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    Charming home on quiet street in highly desired mobile home community. NO HOA. You own the land! Relaxing patio area leads to the comfortable living room where there's plenty of rspaceto entertain or enjoy a quiet evening at home. Good-sized kitchen with plenty of counter space and storage. The dining area has built-in cabinets and is just steps away. Two car carport and one car garage. RV parking.

22. 2023-05-06
    listed $215,000 Active 409-char remark

    Show marketing remark (409 chars)

    Charming home on quiet street in highly desired mobile home community. NO HOA. You own the land! Relaxing patio area leads to the comfortable living room where there's plenty of rspaceto entertain or enjoy a quiet evening at home. Good-sized kitchen with plenty of counter space and storage. The dining area has built-in cabinets and is just steps away. Two car carport and one car garage. RV parking.

23. 2009-02-23
    soldstatus $25,000 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    Immaculate and well maintained mobile home. Kitchen has built in hutch-pantry-bay window and breakfast bar. 2 bedroom 2 bath could be 2 master suites. Two huge covered patios. Two A/C units and evaporated cooler. Private sunning area or extra storage. Workshio or storage with A/C unit. One car garage and two car carport. Mature landscaping with huge shade trees. Lots of room for your toys and close to Sun City.

24. 2008-08-01
    listed $29,000 414-char remark

    Show marketing remark (414 chars)

    Immaculate and well maintained mobile home. Kitchen has built in hutch-pantry-bay window and breakfast bar. 2 bedroom 2 bath could be 2 master suites. Two huge covered patios. Two A/C units and evaporated cooler. Private sunning area or extra storage. Workshio or storage with A/C unit. One car garage and two car carport. Mature landscaping with huge shade trees. Lots of room for your toys and close to Sun City.

25. 2008-06-04
    historical
26. 2007-12-04
    listed $120,000
27. 2006-08-10
    soldstatus $83,000
28. 2006-08-10
    soldstatus $83,000
29. 2006-07-12
    historical
30. 2005-12-01
    listed $89,900
31. 2004-07-27
    historical
32. 2004-05-11
    soldstatus $55,000
33. 2004-03-24
    listed $65,000
34. 2004-03-02
    historical
35. 2003-03-02
    listed $72,000
36. 2001-02-28
    soldstatus $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $371 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $587 · $49/mo
• Expected delta: +$216/yr (+$18/mo · 58.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥112°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,985
• − Property taxes: −$371
• − Insurance: −$445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,104
• − Management: −$1,104
• − Depreciation: −$2,589
• Taxable income: $3,201
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$768
• After-tax cash flow: $3,717/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Morristown Elementary District (4251)
• NCES district ID: 0405340
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,094
• Composite: 25.94/100
• National rank: #12763
• State rank: #315 of 501 in AZ

Livability — Wittmann

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #326
• US rank: #25597

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime C+ Employment C- Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,107

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 17% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 27% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 77.69%
• Current HPI: 479.0154
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+250.9% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-03 Listed $192,985 ARMLS
• 2023-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $215,000 Public Records
• 2023-10-13 Sold (MLS) $215,000 ARMLS
• 2023-09-07 Pending — ARMLS
• 2023-07-22 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2023-06-09 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2023-05-06 Listed $215,000 ARMLS
• 2009-02-23 Sold (MLS) $25,000 ARMLS
• 2008-08-01 Listed $29,000 ARMLS
• 2008-06-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2007-12-04 Listed $120,000 ARMLS
• 2006-08-10 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records
• 2006-08-10 Sold (MLS) $83,000 ARMLS
• 2006-07-12 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2005-12-01 Listed $89,900 ARMLS
• 2004-07-27 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2004-03-24 Listed $65,000 ARMLS
• 2004-03-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2003-03-02 Listed $72,000 ARMLS
• 2001-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $371 · -4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.