4821 Cottonwood Ln · Jackson, MS 39212

$144,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,235 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1979 0.36 ac lot $117/sqft · 44% above area Est $133k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• ARV discount +3.6/15.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the established Willow Wood neighborhood. This property offers a functional floor plan with comfortable living spaces, plenty of natural light, and a kitchen designed for everyday living. Enjoy a spacious yard perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and major roadways for easy access throughout the area.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Near dining
• Near shopping

Tags

• WILLOW WOOD NEIGHBORHOOD
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS YARD
• NATURAL LIGHT
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR DINING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage; Concrete driveway; Garage faces front
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Sewer connected/available; Water available
• Home design: Single-family residence (house); One level; Move-in ready
• Construction: Brick and wood siding construction; Slab foundation; Built (year source: public records)
• Exterior features: Composition roof; City lot; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the main level; Additional bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Seven total rooms; Living room with fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32 ($385/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $129k (11.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $129k (11.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 9.9% in Jackson — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, employment F, health & safety F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Timberlawn Elementary School (math 5% / reading 11%, grade F, #334 of 375 statewide, top 89%, 353 students, 100% FRL); Forest Hill High School (math 5% / reading 15%, grade F, #168 of 197 statewide, top 86%, 991 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 302 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($51k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,570 (11.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.95%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $133,215
• List price: $144,900
• Delta: 8.77%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5513 Dogwood Trl	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,219 (-1%)	2mo	$130,000	$107	91
5551 Will O Run Cir	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,138 (-8%)	6mo	$99,900	$88	76
4271 Cypress Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,222 (-1%)	6mo	$107,900	$88	72
5016 Fox Glen Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,272 (+3%)	1mo	$219,900	$173	62
5012 Fox Glen Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,272 (+3%)	2mo	$219,900	$173	62
5019 Fox Glen Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,272 (+3%)	3mo	$219,900	$173	61
5009 Quail Ridge Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,272 (+3%)	3mo	$226,495	$178	61
5023 Fox Glen Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,272 (+3%)	3mo	$219,900	$173	61
5026 Quail Ridge Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,272 (+3%)	5mo	$217,900	$171	60
5013 Quail Ridge Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,272 (+3%)	6mo	$221,855	$174	59
2376 Princess Pine Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,308 (+6%)	2mo	$145,000	$111	57
38 Cedar Pl	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,125 (-9%)	4mo	$79,000	$70	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-19,817
• Equity at exit: $21,605

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-7,813
• Equity at exit: $12,528

Cash invested: $40,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39212

• Home prices YoY: -11.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 302
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,286 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,960/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,245

Max offer price $144,900

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,225
• Closing costs: $4,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2750 N Siwell Rd Jackson, MS	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$975	$1.15	13d	1	0.30mi
4954 Hanging Oak Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1082	$1,215	$1.12	43d	1	0.62mi
1457 Lakeview Ave Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,426	$1.11	13d	1	1.45mi
1478 Bass Ave Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1036	$1,525	$1.47	13d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $144,900 Pending 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $144,900 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $144,900 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $144,900 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $144,900 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $144,900 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $144,900 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $144,900 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $144,900 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $144,900 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-05-30
    days on market $144,900 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-05-15
    listed $144,900 Active 406-char remark
13. 2018-06-08
    soldstatus
14. 1992-01-15
    soldstatus
15. 1979-10-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,960 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,960 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,428
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,117
• − Property taxes: −$1,960
• − Insurance: −$724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,234
• − Management: −$1,234
• − Depreciation: −$4,215
• Taxable loss: −$2,057
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$494
• After-tax cash flow: $879/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2802190
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,234
• Composite: 10.89/100
• National rank: #9755
• State rank: #112 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• County: Hinds County · 167,040 people
• City population: 140,204
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 25,659
• Household income: $50,722
• Rent vs Own: 37.8% rent · 62.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1314.0

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% White 9% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.01%
• Current HPI: 174.4025
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.23%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Pending — MLSU
• 2026-05-15 Listed $144,900 MLSU
• 2018-06-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1992-01-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1979-10-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,960 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.