1657 Elkhart Cir · Tavares, FL 32778

$159,900

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,060 sqft · Manufactured public records · 70 Days on market

Built 1995 10,304 sqft lot Est $162k · at est. $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.5/30.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

PRICE REDUCED on this Freshly Remodeled 2 bedroom 1 1/2 bath home in Lake Frances Estates. Home features, Maple hardwood floors, new stainless steel appliances, tiled splash guard, large kitchen island with a butcher-block countertop where you can relax and enjoy that first cup of coffee. Home has double pane windows, double sliding glass doors opening onto a 10/14 deck. The back yard is fenced in and has a storage shed. Master bedroom has 2 walk in closets and 2nd bedroom has one walk in closet. There is a 1/2 bath and an inside laundry roomwith aa door leading to the home's wooden front porch. All this in Lake Frances Estates a 55+ community with excellent amenities including inside/outside pools, large clubhouse, shuffleboard courts, billiard and card room. All this for only $35 a month in HOA fees. Lake Frances is a Golf Cart community with easy access to Downtown Tavares and to the local Winn Dixie Plaza.

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Community pool
• Built 1995

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $210 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.5% in Tavares — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#220 in FL, #3,464 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 501 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 70 days — a 6% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,306 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 70 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.63%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $162,180
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1687 Elkhart Cir	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,000 (-6%)	6mo	$160,000	$160	75
1681 Elkhart Cir	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,125 (+6%)	7mo	$172,000	$153	75
1424 Mohawk Cir	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,160 (+9%)	2mo	$195,000	$168	72
1024 Capella Dr	0.37mi	2/2.0	1,104 (+4%)	4mo	$55,000	$50	70
1408 Skyline Ct	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,144 (+8%)	8mo	$92,000	$80	69
1209 Apache Cir	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	9mo	$128,000	$111	63

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.05% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-10,575
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.36×
• Total profit: $16,190
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32778

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 501
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,758 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$234 /mo · $2,805/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,492

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1105 N Rockingham Ave Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	806	$1,650	$2.05	4d	1	0.47mi
2225 Cypress Ct Unit 2C Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1334	$2,000	$1.50	23d	1	0.49mi
807 McLain Ct Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1104	$1,700	$1.54	16d	1	0.65mi
1632 Tudor Ln Unit 1632 Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1047	$1,595	$1.52	17d	1	0.72mi
542 E Caroline St Tavares, FL	2.0	1.0	812	$1,400	$1.72	23d	1	0.82mi
743 E Alfred St Tavares, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,450	$1.45	23d	1	0.85mi
380 Dora Ave Tavares, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,399	$1.87	14d	1	0.86mi
1403 E Alfred St Unit 200 Tavares, FL	2.0	1.5	1000	$2,000	$2.00	17d	1	1.03mi
2420 Ann Rou Rd Unit 201 Tavares, FL	1.0	1.0	1000	$1,555	$1.55	17d	1	1.10mi
2460 Ann Rou Rd Unit 606 Tavares, FL	2.0	2.0	1167	$1,750	$1.50	17d	1	1.22mi
123 N Lake Ave Tavares, FL	2.0	1.0	1120	$1,595	$1.42	23d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
2. 2024-12-31
   soldstatus $155,000
3. 2024-12-11
   status Pending
4. 2024-09-30
   listed $159,900 Active
5. 2024-09-17
   listed $159,900 Active
6. 2019-07-01
   soldstatus $98,900
7. 2019-06-28
   soldstatus $98,900 Sold 924-char remark

   Show marketing remark (924 chars)

   PRICE REDUCED on this Freshly Remodeled 2 bedroom 1 1/2 bath home in Lake Frances Estates. Home features, Maple hardwood floors, new stainless steel appliances, tiled splash guard, large kitchen island with a butcher-block countertop where you can relax and enjoy that first cup of coffee. Home has double pane windows, double sliding glass doors opening onto a 10/14 deck. The back yard is fenced in and has a storage shed. Master bedroom has 2 walk in closets and 2nd bedroom has one walk in closet. There is a 1/2 bath and an inside laundry roomwith aa door leading to the home's wooden front porch. All this in Lake Frances Estates a 55+ community with excellent amenities including inside/outside pools, large clubhouse, shuffleboard courts, billiard and card room. All this for only $35 a month in HOA fees. Lake Frances is a Golf Cart community with easy access to Downtown Tavares and to the local Winn Dixie Plaza.

8. 2019-05-19
   status Pending 924-char remark

   Show marketing remark (924 chars)

   PRICE REDUCED on this Freshly Remodeled 2 bedroom 1 1/2 bath home in Lake Frances Estates. Home features, Maple hardwood floors, new stainless steel appliances, tiled splash guard, large kitchen island with a butcher-block countertop where you can relax and enjoy that first cup of coffee. Home has double pane windows, double sliding glass doors opening onto a 10/14 deck. The back yard is fenced in and has a storage shed. Master bedroom has 2 walk in closets and 2nd bedroom has one walk in closet. There is a 1/2 bath and an inside laundry roomwith aa door leading to the home's wooden front porch. All this in Lake Frances Estates a 55+ community with excellent amenities including inside/outside pools, large clubhouse, shuffleboard courts, billiard and card room. All this for only $35 a month in HOA fees. Lake Frances is a Golf Cart community with easy access to Downtown Tavares and to the local Winn Dixie Plaza.

9. 2019-04-25
   price $98,900 924-char remark

   Show marketing remark (924 chars)

   PRICE REDUCED on this Freshly Remodeled 2 bedroom 1 1/2 bath home in Lake Frances Estates. Home features, Maple hardwood floors, new stainless steel appliances, tiled splash guard, large kitchen island with a butcher-block countertop where you can relax and enjoy that first cup of coffee. Home has double pane windows, double sliding glass doors opening onto a 10/14 deck. The back yard is fenced in and has a storage shed. Master bedroom has 2 walk in closets and 2nd bedroom has one walk in closet. There is a 1/2 bath and an inside laundry roomwith aa door leading to the home's wooden front porch. All this in Lake Frances Estates a 55+ community with excellent amenities including inside/outside pools, large clubhouse, shuffleboard courts, billiard and card room. All this for only $35 a month in HOA fees. Lake Frances is a Golf Cart community with easy access to Downtown Tavares and to the local Winn Dixie Plaza.

10. 2019-04-08
    listed $102,900 Active 924-char remark

    Show marketing remark (924 chars)

    PRICE REDUCED on this Freshly Remodeled 2 bedroom 1 1/2 bath home in Lake Frances Estates. Home features, Maple hardwood floors, new stainless steel appliances, tiled splash guard, large kitchen island with a butcher-block countertop where you can relax and enjoy that first cup of coffee. Home has double pane windows, double sliding glass doors opening onto a 10/14 deck. The back yard is fenced in and has a storage shed. Master bedroom has 2 walk in closets and 2nd bedroom has one walk in closet. There is a 1/2 bath and an inside laundry roomwith aa door leading to the home's wooden front porch. All this in Lake Frances Estates a 55+ community with excellent amenities including inside/outside pools, large clubhouse, shuffleboard courts, billiard and card room. All this for only $35 a month in HOA fees. Lake Frances is a Golf Cart community with easy access to Downtown Tavares and to the local Winn Dixie Plaza.

11. 2018-07-27
    soldstatus $110,000 Sold
12. 2018-07-27
    soldstatus $110,000
13. 2018-06-15
    status Pending
14. 2018-05-27
    listed $110,000 Active
15. 2016-01-22
    soldstatus $37,500 Sold
16. 2016-01-05
    status Pending
17. 2015-12-17
    price $39,900
18. 2015-11-19
    price $42,500
19. 2015-11-18
    status Active
20. 2015-11-12
    status Pending
21. 2015-10-16
    price $44,900
22. 2015-09-21
    price $47,900
23. 2015-09-14
    status Active
24. 2015-09-09
    historical Contingent - Inspections
25. 2015-08-18
    price $49,900
26. 2015-08-04
    price $55,500
27. 2015-07-01
    listed $61,500 Active
28. 1995-01-24
    soldstatus $49,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,805 · $234/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,805 · $234/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$2,805
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,688
• − Management: −$1,688
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $31
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$7
• After-tax cash flow: $2,515/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tavares

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #3464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tavares, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 25,042
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,042
• Household income: $63,472
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -88.07%
• Current HPI: 288.7123
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.05%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+210.6% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2024-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2024-12-11 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2024-09-30 Listed $159,900 Beaches MLS
• 2024-09-17 Listed $159,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $98,900 Public Records
• 2019-06-28 Sold (MLS) $98,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-19 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-25 Price Changed $98,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-08 Listed $102,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 2018-07-27 Sold (MLS) $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-05-27 Listed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-22 Sold (MLS) $37,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-05 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-12-17 Price Changed $39,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-19 Price Changed $42,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-18 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-11-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-10-16 Price Changed $44,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-21 Price Changed $47,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-14 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-09 Contingent — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-18 Price Changed $49,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-08-04 Price Changed $55,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-07-01 Listed $61,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-01-24 Sold (Public Records) $49,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,805 · +193.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.