Elton Plan · Mesquite, TX 75181

$369,999

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,083 sqft · SingleFamily · 198 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.8/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This new single-level home is host to an inviting open floorplan with convenient access to a covered patio, ideal for seamless entertaining. Three secondary bedrooms are located off the foyer, and the luxurious owner's suite is tucked to the side of the home, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile flex space can be found off the main living area.

Key facts

• Flex space
• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• COVERED PATIO
• FLEX SPACE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $369,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $438,100.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-679 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $340k (8.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $297k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $297k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#358 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Mesquite ISD (suburban): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #536 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Gentry El (math 34% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,769 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 637 students, 79% FRL); Berry Middle (math 45% / reading 41%, grade D-, #540 of 1,662 statewide, top 33%, 579 students, 76% FRL); Horn H S (math 41% / reading 36%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,029 students, 74% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 598 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 198 days — a 12% lower offer ($326k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $297,279 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 198 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.64%
• DSCR: 0.70
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $438,100
• List price: $369,999
• Delta: -15.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1805 Tree House Trl	0.12mi	4/2.0	2,204 (+6%)	5mo	$404,990	$184	81
1708 Possum Fire Trl	0.19mi	4/3.0	2,182 (+5%)	6mo	$464,006	$213	74
2021 Jade Frst	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,001 (-4%)	7mo	$399,999	$200	66
1901 Kit Fox Run	0.48mi	4/3.0	1,945 (-7%)	2mo	$360,000	$185	61
2225 Hazel Lily Run	0.37mi	4/3.0	2,358 (+13%)	0mo	$414,990	$176	56
1833 Cedarbriar Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,011 (-4%)	6mo	$305,000	$152	55
2417 Johnson Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0	1,982 (-5%)	7mo	$349,900	$177	54
2008 Cantura Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,164 (+4%)	1mo	$299,000	$138	54
2105 Jade Forest Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,821 (-13%)	6mo	$409,990	$225	50
1813 Jade Forest Ln	0.40mi	4/3.0	2,358 (+13%)	6mo	$449,990	$191	50
2404 Tarrango Trl	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,898 (-9%)	1mo	$364,990	$192	45
2021 Cantura Dr	0.68mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,815 (-13%)	3mo	$294,900	$162	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-122,714
• Equity at exit: $65,322

10-year hold

• IRR: -53.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.59×
• Total profit: $-195,321
• Equity at exit: $37,879

Cash invested: $122,668 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75181

• Home prices YoY: -9.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 598
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,973 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,297
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$548 /mo · $6,572/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$624
• Net cashflow: $-679

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,832

Max offer price $339,832

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-376	-5% $-528	+0% $-679	+5% $-830	+10% $-982
Rent	-10% $-914	-5% $-797	+0% $-679	+5% $-562	+10% $-444
Rate	-1.0pp $-458	-0.5pp $-568	base $-679	+0.5pp $-793	+1.0pp $-908

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,525
• Closing costs: $13,143
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1908 Twisted Tree Ln Mesquite, TX	5.0	2.5	2750	$3,670	$1.33	26d	1	0.27mi
2004 Poppy Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,700	$1.72	45d	1	0.32mi
2201 Cantura Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2432	$2,700	$1.11	0d	1	0.59mi
1817 Cedarbriar Dr Mesquite, TX	5.0	3.5	2538	$3,495	$1.38	45d	1	0.61mi
2439 Whitetail Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2484	$2,800	$1.13	26d	1	0.72mi
1809 Osage Trl Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2022	$2,599	$1.29	19d	1	0.77mi
2600 Waterloo Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,900	$1.30	45d	1	0.82mi
1729 Hazer Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,400	$1.60	22d	1	0.83mi
732 Creekview Ct Mesquite, TX	5.0	3.0	2313	$3,495	$1.51	45d	1	0.91mi
815 Valleycreek Rd Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$2,500	$1.40	45d	1	1.02mi
1332 Nimitz Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2109	$2,280	$1.08	22d	1	1.02mi
1309 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1952	$2,222	$1.14	9d	1	1.05mi
1308 Dawson Way Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2476	$3,573	$1.44	26d	1	1.08mi
2749 Ingram Cir Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1791	$2,119	$1.18	5d	1	1.24mi
2637 Austin Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2291	$3,350	$1.46	45d	1	1.28mi
2621 Ash Crk Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$2,299	$1.25	45d	1	1.30mi
2302 Highbank Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1783	$2,145	$1.20	45d	1	1.33mi
716 Elm Falls Pl Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	2444	$2,300	$0.94	22d	1	1.35mi
1626 Rancho Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2562	$2,419	$0.94	26d	1	1.38mi
2725 Stillwater Dr Mesquite, TX	5.0	2.5	2228	$3,199	$1.44	0d	1	1.41mi
2829 Kerrville Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	2349	$2,700	$1.15	6d	1	1.41mi
2805 Cameron Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1660	$2,150	$1.30	14d	1	1.43mi
2724 Windswept Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$2,300	$1.64	26d	1	1.44mi
1704 Bent Brook Dr Mesquite, TX	5.0	3.0	2726	$2,900	$1.06	20d	1	1.44mi
2213 Creek Royal Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1505	$1,850	$1.23	24d	1	1.45mi
2213 Creek Royal Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1505	$1,850	$1.23	45d	1	1.45mi
1217 Buckeye Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$1,995	$1.15	24d	1	1.46mi
1217 Buckeye Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$1,995	$1.15	45d	1	1.46mi
2812 Clearmeadow Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1837	$2,800	$1.52	0d	1	1.48mi
2314 Stillwater Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1995	$2,600	$1.30	26d	1	1.48mi
2314 Stillwater Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1995	$2,600	$1.30	0d	1	1.48mi
2208 Browning Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,955	$1.39	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $369,999 Active 198 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $369,999 Active 195 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $369,999 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $369,999 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $369,999 Active 192 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,999 Active 190 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $369,999 Active 189 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $369,999 Active 186 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $369,999 Active 185 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $369,999 Active 184 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $369,999 Active 181 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $369,999 Active 180 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $369,999 Active 179 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $369,999 Active 178 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $369,999 Active 177 DOM
16. 2025-12-05
    listed $369,999 Active 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    This new single-level home is host to an inviting open floorplan with convenient access to a covered patio, ideal for seamless entertaining. Three secondary bedrooms are located off the foyer, and the luxurious owner's suite is tucked to the side of the home, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. A versatile flex space can be found off the main living area.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,673
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,540
• − Property taxes: −$6,572
• − Insurance: −$2,191
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,854
• − Management: −$2,854
• − Depreciation: −$12,745
• Taxable loss: −$16,081
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,860
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,290/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesquite ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,372
• Composite: 29.06/100
• National rank: #6606
• State rank: #536 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mesquite

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #7743

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesquite, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 150,788
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,788
• Household income: $111,052
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 857.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 21% White 16% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.63%
• Current HPI: 257.0959
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.07%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-05 Listed $369,999 Zillow