1004 San Saba St · Shadybrook, TX 75757

$115,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 18 Days on market

Built 2013 0.34 ac lot $95/sqft · 41% below area Est $196k · 41% under $16/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2013 Clayton manufactured home on 1/3 acre lot in the Shadybrook East subdivision in the Bullard ISD. This home features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, 1216 sqft, new carpet-linoleum-paint-2"blinds, kitchen island, upgraded cabinets, freezer space, ceiling fans, separate tub & shower, transom windows and a nice lot with mature trees. The owner is a mortgage company and will finance someone new!

Key facts

• Bullard isd
• Freezer space
• Ceiling fans

Tags

• SHADYBROOK EAST SUBDIVISION
• BULLARD ISD
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• UPGRADED CABINETS
• FREEZER SPACE
• CEILING FANS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $116k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $495 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $116k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 4.0% in Shadybrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,042 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bullard ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #48 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 581 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $801 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 66% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,161 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.29%
• DSCR: 1.81
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $195,555
• List price: $115,900
• Delta: -38.69%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
273 San Marcos	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-13%)	11mo	$199,000	$188	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $12,753
• Equity at exit: $17,281

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $51,793
• Equity at exit: $10,021

Cash invested: $32,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75757

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 581
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$608
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,641/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$16
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $495

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,024

Max offer price $115,900

Occupancy floor 65%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $560	-5% $527	+0% $495	+5% $462	+10% $429
Rent	-10% $364	-5% $429	+0% $495	+5% $560	+10% $625
Rate	-1.0pp $553	-0.5pp $524	base $495	+0.5pp $465	+1.0pp $434

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,975
• Closing costs: $3,477
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
394 Red Bud Cir Bullard, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,650	$1.22	45d	1	1.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $16 · $192/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $115,900 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $115,900 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $115,900 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $115,900 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $115,900 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $115,900 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $115,900 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $115,900 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $115,900 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $115,900 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $115,900 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $115,900 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $115,900 Active 1 DOM
14. 2026-01-07
    listed $119,900 Active
15. 2025-09-10
    price $124,900
16. 2025-06-25
    listed $129,900 Active
17. 2021-06-09
    soldstatus
18. 1981-02-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,641 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,121 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: +$480/yr (+$40/mo · 29.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 66% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,492
• − Property taxes: −$1,641
• − Insurance: −$580
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,584
• − Management: −$1,584
• − HOA: −$192
• − Depreciation: −$3,372
• Taxable income: $4,355
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,045
• After-tax cash flow: $4,890/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullard ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812060
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,026
• Composite: 53.66/100
• National rank: #1433
• State rank: #48 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shadybrook

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1042
• US rank: #18541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shadybrook, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,977

Population outlook (Cherokee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,949 people
• By 2030: 51,984 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 51,780 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 51,085 · -1.7%
• By 2075: 47,418 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 39,464 · -24.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Cherokee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.3% · R 80.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.5pp toward R · 2008: -43.2pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+55.8 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+43.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.57%
• Current HPI: 189.5215
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-07 Listed $119,900 LAAR
• 2025-09-10 Price Changed $124,900 LAAR
• 2025-06-25 Listed $129,900 LAAR
• 2021-06-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1981-02-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+32.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,641 · -8.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.