331 N Barlow Rd · Gustin, MI 48740

$69,000

6 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,244 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1954 ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home is in poor shape. It needs a total rehab. Needs windows, doors, drywall , just everything. Needs to be taken down to the studs. What is good. The house is located on a paved road and has a paved driveway. The structure is sound as it is a cement block building. It has natural gas. It is located close to Alcona schools and the city of Lincoln. It has a 2 acre lot approximately 327 ft of road frontage x 265 ft deep. This is a total redo house and not suitable for living in until renovations are completed.

Key facts

• Paved road
• Paved driveway
• Natural gas

Tags

• PAVED ROAD
• PAVED DRIVEWAY
• CEMENT BLOCK BUILDING
• NATURAL GAS
• CLOSE TO ALCONA SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO CITY OF LINCOLN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $402 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Alcona Community Schools (rural): math 24% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #374 of 540 in MI (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Alcona County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alcona County population projected at -37% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $67,965 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.59% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.98%
• DSCR: 2.11
• GRM: 5.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.75×
• Total profit: $14,445
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.36×
• Total profit: $45,602
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48740

• Home prices YoY: -25.8%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,098 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $898/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $402

Break-even live

Break-even rent $589

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $69,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $69,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $69,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $69,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $69,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $69,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $69,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-26
    listed $69,000 Active
17. 2008-10-23
    soldstatus $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $898 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $980 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$83/yr (+$7/mo · 9.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,179
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$898
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,054
• − Management: −$1,054
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $3,955
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$949
• After-tax cash flow: $3,877/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alcona Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2602160
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $38,164
• Composite: 25.03/100
• National rank: #7552
• State rank: #374 of 540 in MI

Livability — Gustin

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,433

Population outlook (Alcona County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,071 people
• By 2030: 8,331 · -8.2%
• By 2040: 6,852 · -24.5%
• By 2050: 5,691 · -37.3%
• By 2075: 4,229 · -53.4%
• By 2100: 3,149 · -65.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alcona

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.7) · D 28.6% · R 70.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.8pp toward R · 2008: -7.9pp · 2024: -41.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.7 2020: R+38.3 2016: R+40.0 2012: R+18.2 2008: R+7.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.03%
• Current HPI: 138.2208
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-13.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $69,000 FSBO.com
• 2008-10-23 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $898 · +58.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.