12651 Maple Bonsai Dr · Riverview, FL 33579

$385,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,264 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 137 Days on market

Built 2023 4,800 sqft lot $8/mo HOA ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Under Construction. . This spacious two-story home boasts five bedrooms with room to spare. The first floor contains a breezy living room, dining room and kitchen in an open design. The spacious owner’s suite is tucked away on the second floor, along with all the secondary bedrooms, just off the versatile loft space. Triple Creek is a masterplan community in Riverview, FL, that offers new single-family homes for sale. Experience a peaceful suburban lifestyle surrounded by nature with great amenities that include a clubhouse, two swimming pools, sports courts and more. Close proximity to I-75 provides residents with smooth travels to the beaches and world-class entertainment in the Tampa Bay area, along with easy access to gorgeous trails in nearby Triple Creek Nature Preserve. For family-friendly living, Triple Creek is zoned for Sumner High School. Interior photos are different from the actual model disclosed being built.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Premium homesite
• No rear neighbors

Tags

• PREMIUM HOMESITE
• NO REAR NEIGHBORS
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• MODERN KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• PRIVATE EN-SUITE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $385k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-462 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $303k (21.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $319k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $303k (21.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#134 in FL, #2,000 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, employment B+; Watch: amenities F.
• Hillsborough (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #41 of 73 in FL (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Warren Hope Dawson Elementary (math 43% / reading 48%, grade D-, #1,247 of 2,144 statewide, top 59%, 948 students, 41% FRL); Newsome High School (math 64% / reading 77%, grade B+, #55 of 667 statewide, top 8%, 3,203 students, 18% FRL) — zoned schools average 29% FRL vs 52% district-wide (22 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.2%/yr); 457 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,053 units permitted in Hillsborough County in 2024 (4,555 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.4%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hillsborough County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $303,309 (21.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.15%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.42% appreciation · 1.18% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-71,194
• Equity at exit: $85,213

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-97,612
• Equity at exit: $83,057

Cash invested: $107,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33579

• Home prices YoY: -0.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 457
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,193 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,019
• Tax from tax record: −$797 /mo · $9,566/yr
• Insurance: −$160
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$670
• Net cashflow: $-462

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,778

Max offer price $303,309

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $96,250
• Closing costs: $11,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13204 Great Plains Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,990	$1.55	5d	1	0.14mi
13144 Peachleaf Ave Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,995	$1.62	5d	1	0.20mi
13259 Palmerston Rd Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2633	$2,900	$1.10	24d	1	0.21mi
12544 Shining Willow St Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2035	$3,000	$1.47	3d	1	0.35mi
12737 Tannencrest Dr Riverview, FL	5.0	3.0	2470	$3,350	$1.36	17d	1	0.39mi
12811 Twin Bridges Dr Unit Labs Riverview, FL	5.0	3.0	2937	$3,250	$1.11	17d	1	0.41mi
13337 Woodworth Way Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	1920	$2,850	$1.48	17d	1	0.42mi
12892 Tannencrest Dr Riverview, FL	5.0	3.0	2530	$2,931	$1.16	16d	1	0.56mi
13037 Pennybrook Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2301	$2,900	$1.26	24d	1	0.78mi
12975 Wildflower Meadow Dr Riverview, FL	5.0	2.5	2896	$2,600	$0.90	24d	1	0.85mi
12967 Wildflower Meadow Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,400	$1.24	24d	1	0.88mi
12964 Wildflower Meadow Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,300	$1.19	20d	1	0.91mi
12964 Wildflower Meadow Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,300	$1.19	5d	1	0.91mi
12377 Streambed Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2414	$2,800	$1.16	24d	1	0.92mi
12330 Streambed Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2357	$3,300	$1.40	5d	1	0.93mi
13185 Green Violet Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	1908	$2,459	$1.29	5d	1	1.23mi
12109 Night Jasmine Cv Riverview, FL	4.0	3.0	2364	$3,150	$1.33	10d	1	1.24mi
12036 Cardinal Flower Dr Riverview, FL	4.0	2.5	2542	$2,590	$1.02	11d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-16
   price $385,000
3. 2026-01-21
   price $394,500
4. 2025-12-05
   listed $398,500 Active
5. 2024-09-03
   historical
6. 2024-06-14
   listed $414,000 Active
7. 2024-01-02
   soldstatus $410,000
8. 2023-12-28
   soldstatus $409,990 Closed 942-char remark

   Show marketing remark (942 chars)

   Under Construction. . This spacious two-story home boasts five bedrooms with room to spare. The first floor contains a breezy living room, dining room and kitchen in an open design. The spacious owner’s suite is tucked away on the second floor, along with all the secondary bedrooms, just off the versatile loft space. Triple Creek is a masterplan community in Riverview, FL, that offers new single-family homes for sale. Experience a peaceful suburban lifestyle surrounded by nature with great amenities that include a clubhouse, two swimming pools, sports courts and more. Close proximity to I-75 provides residents with smooth travels to the beaches and world-class entertainment in the Tampa Bay area, along with easy access to gorgeous trails in nearby Triple Creek Nature Preserve. For family-friendly living, Triple Creek is zoned for Sumner High School. Interior photos are different from the actual model disclosed being built.

9. 2023-09-13
   status Pending 942-char remark

   Show marketing remark (942 chars)

   Under Construction. . This spacious two-story home boasts five bedrooms with room to spare. The first floor contains a breezy living room, dining room and kitchen in an open design. The spacious owner’s suite is tucked away on the second floor, along with all the secondary bedrooms, just off the versatile loft space. Triple Creek is a masterplan community in Riverview, FL, that offers new single-family homes for sale. Experience a peaceful suburban lifestyle surrounded by nature with great amenities that include a clubhouse, two swimming pools, sports courts and more. Close proximity to I-75 provides residents with smooth travels to the beaches and world-class entertainment in the Tampa Bay area, along with easy access to gorgeous trails in nearby Triple Creek Nature Preserve. For family-friendly living, Triple Creek is zoned for Sumner High School. Interior photos are different from the actual model disclosed being built.

10. 2023-09-06
    price $409,990 942-char remark

    Show marketing remark (942 chars)

    Under Construction. . This spacious two-story home boasts five bedrooms with room to spare. The first floor contains a breezy living room, dining room and kitchen in an open design. The spacious owner’s suite is tucked away on the second floor, along with all the secondary bedrooms, just off the versatile loft space. Triple Creek is a masterplan community in Riverview, FL, that offers new single-family homes for sale. Experience a peaceful suburban lifestyle surrounded by nature with great amenities that include a clubhouse, two swimming pools, sports courts and more. Close proximity to I-75 provides residents with smooth travels to the beaches and world-class entertainment in the Tampa Bay area, along with easy access to gorgeous trails in nearby Triple Creek Nature Preserve. For family-friendly living, Triple Creek is zoned for Sumner High School. Interior photos are different from the actual model disclosed being built.

11. 2023-08-25
    price $414,990 942-char remark

    Show marketing remark (942 chars)

    Under Construction. . This spacious two-story home boasts five bedrooms with room to spare. The first floor contains a breezy living room, dining room and kitchen in an open design. The spacious owner’s suite is tucked away on the second floor, along with all the secondary bedrooms, just off the versatile loft space. Triple Creek is a masterplan community in Riverview, FL, that offers new single-family homes for sale. Experience a peaceful suburban lifestyle surrounded by nature with great amenities that include a clubhouse, two swimming pools, sports courts and more. Close proximity to I-75 provides residents with smooth travels to the beaches and world-class entertainment in the Tampa Bay area, along with easy access to gorgeous trails in nearby Triple Creek Nature Preserve. For family-friendly living, Triple Creek is zoned for Sumner High School. Interior photos are different from the actual model disclosed being built.

12. 2023-08-16
    price $419,990 942-char remark

    Show marketing remark (942 chars)

    Under Construction. . This spacious two-story home boasts five bedrooms with room to spare. The first floor contains a breezy living room, dining room and kitchen in an open design. The spacious owner’s suite is tucked away on the second floor, along with all the secondary bedrooms, just off the versatile loft space. Triple Creek is a masterplan community in Riverview, FL, that offers new single-family homes for sale. Experience a peaceful suburban lifestyle surrounded by nature with great amenities that include a clubhouse, two swimming pools, sports courts and more. Close proximity to I-75 provides residents with smooth travels to the beaches and world-class entertainment in the Tampa Bay area, along with easy access to gorgeous trails in nearby Triple Creek Nature Preserve. For family-friendly living, Triple Creek is zoned for Sumner High School. Interior photos are different from the actual model disclosed being built.

13. 2023-08-09
    listed $425,610 Active 942-char remark

    Show marketing remark (942 chars)

    Under Construction. . This spacious two-story home boasts five bedrooms with room to spare. The first floor contains a breezy living room, dining room and kitchen in an open design. The spacious owner’s suite is tucked away on the second floor, along with all the secondary bedrooms, just off the versatile loft space. Triple Creek is a masterplan community in Riverview, FL, that offers new single-family homes for sale. Experience a peaceful suburban lifestyle surrounded by nature with great amenities that include a clubhouse, two swimming pools, sports courts and more. Close proximity to I-75 provides residents with smooth travels to the beaches and world-class entertainment in the Tampa Bay area, along with easy access to gorgeous trails in nearby Triple Creek Nature Preserve. For family-friendly living, Triple Creek is zoned for Sumner High School. Interior photos are different from the actual model disclosed being built.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,566 · $797/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,566 · $797/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,310
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,566
• − Property taxes: −$9,566
• − Insurance: −$1,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,065
• − Management: −$3,065
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$11,200
• Taxable loss: −$12,172
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,921
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,628/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hillsborough
• NCES district ID: 1200870
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $50,622
• Composite: 41.6/100
• National rank: #3435
• State rank: #41 of 73 in FL

Livability — Riverview

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #134
• US rank: #2000

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living B+ Crime B Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Riverview, FL
• County: Hillsborough County · 1,540,968 people
• City population: 137,988
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,470
• Household income: $116,134
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 258.0

Population outlook (Hillsborough County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,607,022 people
• By 2030: 1,733,968 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 1,979,565 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 2,203,427 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 2,667,893 · +66.0%
• By 2100: 2,891,558 · +79.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 24% Two or more races 19% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 12% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% British 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hillsborough

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.2pp toward R · 2008: 7.1pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+6.9 2016: D+6.8 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+7.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Current HPI: 240.5825
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.18%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $385,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-21 Price Changed $394,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-05 Listed $398,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-03 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-14 Listed $414,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-02 Sold (Public Records) $410,000 Public Records
• 2023-12-28 Sold (MLS) $409,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-13 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-06 Price Changed $409,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-25 Price Changed $414,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-16 Price Changed $419,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-08-09 Listed $425,610 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid