Conroe Plan · Lytle, TX 78052

$255,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,174 sqft · SingleFamily · 897 Days on market

Good condition $33/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The beautiful three-bedroom, two-bathroom Conroe plan offers an open-concept layout perfect for hosting. A foyer welcomes guests into the adjoining dining room and family room where friends and family can gather. Enjoy preparing meals in a kitchen filled with modern fixtures and finished, including white cabinets, stainless steel appliances and granite countertops. Spacious bedrooms and an open concept floor plan make the Conroe plan a great home for any family.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 896 days

🏗️ New construction. The $255,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $274,526.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $256k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-328 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (11.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (20.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (20.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.9% in Lytle — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#404 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lytle ISD (rural): math 24% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #690 of 826 in TX (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lytle El (math 22% / reading 23%, grade F, #3,311 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 541 students, 73% FRL); Lytle J H (math 28% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,122 of 1,662 statewide, top 69%, 398 students, 73% FRL); Lytle H S (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,264 of 1,632 statewide, top 82%, 487 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 127 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 224 units permitted in Atascosa County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Atascosa County population projected at +41% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 897 days — a 12% lower offer ($225k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $202,770 (20.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 897 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.13%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $274,526
• List price: $255,900
• Delta: -6.78%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16182 Farmer	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,174 (0%)	3mo	$249,900	$213	91
16104 Farmer	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,174 (0%)	2mo	$255,900	$218	88
16140 Farmer	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,174 (0%)	3mo	$249,900	$213	87
16012 Stratford Cv	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,174 (0%)	3mo	$252,900	$215	84
16178 Farmer	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,316 (+12%)	2mo	$291,900	$222	71
16201 Farmer	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,316 (+12%)	2mo	$296,900	$226	71
16166 Farmer	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,316 (+12%)	2mo	$291,900	$222	70
16181 Farmer	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,316 (+12%)	2mo	$294,900	$224	70
16124 Farmer	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,316 (+12%)	2mo	$291,900	$222	68
16120 Farmer	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	999 (-15%)	4mo	$229,900	$230	56
16008 Stratford Cv	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	999 (-15%)	3mo	$229,900	$230	55
19907 Wyatt Earp Way	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,336 (+14%)	1mo	$215,000	$161	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.25% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $62,484
• Equity at exit: $176,920

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $199,242
• Equity at exit: $324,652

Cash invested: $76,867 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 10 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 2.7 mo (37%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $248,148 ($194/sqft)
• Median days on market: 68 d
• This list price: 60% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +20.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78052

• Home prices YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 127
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,028 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,440
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$343 /mo · $4,118/yr
• Insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$426
• Net cashflow: $-328

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,443

Max offer price $227,020

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-139	-5% $-233	+0% $-328	+5% $-423	+10% $-518
Rent	-10% $-488	-5% $-408	+0% $-328	+5% $-248	+10% $-168
Rate	-1.0pp $-190	-0.5pp $-258	base $-328	+0.5pp $-399	+1.0pp $-472

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,632
• Closing costs: $8,236
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16004 Tassel Br Lytle, TX	2.0–5.0	2.0–2.5	1558	$2,137	$1.37	9d	1	0.02mi
14838 Lytle Somerset Rd Lytle, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,250	$1.32	93d	1	0.77mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $255,900 Active 897 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $255,900 Active 896 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $255,900 Active 895 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $255,900 Active 894 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $255,900 Active 893 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $255,900 Active 892 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $255,900 Active 889 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $255,900 Active 888 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $255,900 Active 887 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $255,900 Active 885 DOM
11. 2026-07-26
    days on market $255,900 Active 884 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $255,900 Active 882 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $255,900 Active 881 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $255,900 Active 880 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $255,900 Active 879 DOM
16. 2026-07-20
    days on market $255,900 Active 878 DOM
17. 2026-07-18
    days on market $255,900 Active 876 DOM
18. 2026-07-17
    days on market $255,900 Active 875 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $255,900 Active 872 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $255,900 Active 871 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $255,900 Active 870 DOM
22. 2026-07-12
    days on market $255,900 Active 869 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $255,900 Active 868 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $255,900 Active 867 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $255,900 Active 865 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $255,900 Active 864 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $255,900 Active 863 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $255,900 Active 862 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $255,900 Active 861 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    price $255,900 Active 860 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $252,900 Active 860 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $252,900 Active 859 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $252,900 Active 858 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $252,900 Active 857 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $252,900 Active 856 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $252,900 Active 855 DOM
37. 2026-06-26
    days on market $252,900 Active 854 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $252,900 Active 851 DOM
39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $252,900 Active 850 DOM
40. 2026-06-21
    days on market $252,900 Active 849 DOM
41. 2026-06-21
    days on market $252,900 Active 848 DOM
42. 2026-06-18
    days on market $252,900 Active 846 DOM
43. 2026-06-17
    days on market $252,900 Active 845 DOM
44. 2026-06-16
    days on market $252,900 Active 844 DOM
45. 2026-06-15
    days on market $252,900 Active 843 DOM
46. 2026-06-15
    days on market $252,900 Active 842 DOM
47. 2026-06-13
    days on market $252,900 Active 841 DOM
48. 2026-06-12
    days on market $252,900 Active 840 DOM
49. 2026-06-10
    days on market $252,900 Active 837 DOM
50. 2026-06-08
    days on market $252,900 Active 836 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,332
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,378
• − Property taxes: −$4,118
• − Insurance: −$1,373
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,947
• − Management: −$1,947
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$7,986
• Taxable loss: −$8,811
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,115
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,825/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in good condition with modern fixtures and a well-maintained exterior. It has the potential to be enhanced with some exterior painting and landscaping improvements to further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lytle Primary School Middle Lytle J H F TX #1,122/1,662 Nat'l #9,410/14,009 High Lytle H S F TX #1,264/1,632 Nat'l #12,478/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lytle ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828650
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $54,478
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8004
• State rank: #690 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Lytle

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #404
• US rank: #8374

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lytle, TX
• County: Atascosa · 57,233 people
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,221
• Household income: $69,018
• Rent vs Own: 11.9% rent · 88.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Atascosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,233 people
• By 2030: 61,729 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 71,122 · +24.3%
• By 2050: 80,906 · +41.4%
• By 2075: 106,134 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 122,415 · +113.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% White 32% Two or more races 22% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 58%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Greek 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada
• Languages at home: 54% English-only · Spanish 44% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Atascosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.3) · D 27.9% · R 71.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.5pp · 2024: -43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.3 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+18.3 2008: R+10.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.25%
• Current HPI: 221.8201
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $252,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $249,900 Zillow
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $277,900 Zillow
• 2025-07-11 Price Changed $280,900 Zillow
• 2025-07-01 Price Changed $285,900 Zillow
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $282,900 Zillow
• 2025-01-03 Price Changed $279,900 Zillow
• 2024-09-30 Price Changed $276,900 Zillow
• 2024-06-07 Price Changed $273,900 Zillow
• 2024-04-11 Price Changed $270,900 Zillow
• 2024-03-13 Price Changed $254,900 Zillow
• 2024-02-23 Listed $279,900 Zillow