1539 4th St NE · Rochester, MN 55906

$199,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,181 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1947 5,140 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.8/5.0
• Livability +4.6/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Affordable house that's ready to move in! Check out this home with beautiful hardwood floors, updated windows & siding, fenced back yard, 2 main floor bedrooms and bonus room! Don't miss out on this one!

Key facts

• 5,140 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1947

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-778/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $188k (5.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.5% in Rochester — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 92/100 on livability (#1 in MN, #27 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+.
• Rochester Public School District (urban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #152 of 301 in MN (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Jefferson Elementary (math 61% / reading 70%, grade B+, #123 of 857 statewide, top 15%, 525 students, 36% FRL); Century Senior High (math 37% / reading 67%, grade D+, #111 of 471 statewide, top 26%, 1,698 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 34% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 59% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+13 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Rochester Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+9.2%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,267 units permitted in Olmsted County in 2024 (915 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Olmsted County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $106k; list at $200k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $159,336 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.39%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-28,113
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.15×
• Total profit: $8,481
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55906

• Home prices YoY: -33.0%
• Rents YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,593 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$192 /mo · $2,304/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $-65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,675

Max offer price $188,447

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
308 15th Ave NE Rochester, MN	2.0	2.0	1344	$1,550	$1.15	21d	1	0.06mi
123 11th Ave SE Unit 2 Rochester, MN	2.0	1.0	1150	$950	$0.83	21d	1	0.51mi
513 13th Ave SE Rochester, MN	2.0	1.0	850	$1,550	$1.82	43d	1	0.69mi
449 E Center St Rochester, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1165	$2,670	$2.29	13d	40	0.75mi
1902 8 1/2 St SE Unit Andover 1902-D Rochester, MN	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	43d	1	0.95mi
2016 8 1/2 St SE Unit Andover 2016-A Rochester, MN	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	43d	1	0.98mi
28 7th St NE Rochester, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	789	$2,750	$3.49	21d	18	1.00mi
401 Broadway Ave N Rochester, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	799	$1,977	$2.47	13d	22	1.07mi
400 1st Ave NW Rochester, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	819	$1,510	$1.84	13d	7	1.10mi
220 Broadway Ave S #911 Rochester, MN	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,750	$1.62	43d	1	1.10mi
538 4th Ave NW Rochester, MN	1.0	1.0	940	$1,450	$1.54	13d	1	1.30mi
524 10th St SE Rochester, MN	2.0	1.0	850	$1,475	$1.74	43d	1	1.32mi
204 13th St NW Rochester, MN	2.0	1.0	705	$1,208	$1.71	13d	4	1.35mi
2111 Wheelock Dr NE Rochester, MN	2.0–3.0	2.0	1135	$1,407	$1.24	13d	3	1.38mi
705 1st Ave SW Rochester, MN	3.0	1.0–2.5	1135	$3,148	$2.77	13d	91	1.39mi
226 13th St NW Unit 27 Rochester, MN	2.0	1.0	705	$1,120	$1.59	21d	1	1.39mi
511 3rd Ave SW Rochester, MN	2.0	1.0	647	$1,795	$2.77	13d	26	1.44mi
207 5th Ave SW Rochester, MN	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,100	$1.40	43d	1	1.46mi
603 1st St SW Rochester, MN	2.0	1.0	512	$1,295	$2.53	13d	3	1.49mi
619 2nd St NW Unit 2 Rochester, MN	3.0	1.5	1435	$1,575	$1.10	13d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-18
   historical Contingent - Inspection
3. 2026-04-16
   listed $199,900 Active
4. 2026-04-13
   historical $199,900
5. 2001-08-06
   soldstatus $105,600
6. 2001-07-25
   soldstatus $105,700
7. 2001-06-19
   historical
8. 2001-06-09
   listed $102,900
9. 1998-09-01
   soldstatus $56,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,304 · $192/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,304 · $192/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,120
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,304
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,530
• − Management: −$1,530
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$4,255
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,021
• After-tax cash flow: $243/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2731800
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,540
• Composite: 40.6/100
• National rank: #3695
• State rank: #152 of 301 in MN

Livability — Rochester

• Score: 92/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #27

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester, MN
• County: Olmsted County · 135,035 people
• City population: 135,035
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• Population (ZIP): 20,437
• Household income: $93,685
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 438.0

Population outlook (Olmsted County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 165,999 people
• By 2030: 172,425 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 183,785 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 192,981 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 215,284 · +29.7%
• By 2100: 224,887 · +35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Asian 8% Black 6% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 14% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Olmsted

• 2024 margin: D (+10.7) · D 54.3% · R 43.6% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 3.3pp · 2024: 10.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.7 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+0.8 2012: D+3.2 2008: D+3.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.46%
• Current HPI: 252.9003
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.18%
• Metro: Rochester, MN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+251.3% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-18 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-16 Listed $199,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Coming Soon $199,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-08-06 Sold (MLS) $105,600 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-07-25 Sold (Public Records) $105,700 Public Records
• 2001-06-19 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-06-09 Listed $102,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $56,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,304 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.