2469 Millcreek Ln #204 · Island Walk, FL 34119

$325,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,315 sqft · Condo public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1997 $606/mo HOA · 16% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ENJOY LIFE FROM THIS LIGHT AND BRIGHT SECOND FLOOR LAKESIDE CONDO. Southern exposure on the lanai provides the perfect amount of daytime sun from coffee to cocktail time. High ceilings grace the main living space. This three bedroom end unit has light flowing into all rooms and yet its setting affords privacy. Huntington Lakes is a desirable community nestled in the heart of North Naples. Close to shopping, dining, and entertainment, the community offers three beautifully landscaped pools, an active social calendar, room for walking and biking, fitness center, tennis, bocce. Active pickleball and golf groups gather to play outside the community. 6 miles to the beach, 25 minutes to 5th Avenu

Key facts

• Southern exposure
• Fitness center
• End unit

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• SOUTHERN EXPOSURE
• HIGH CEILINGS
• END UNIT
• LANDSCAPED POOLS
• FITNESS CENTER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Condo documents provide lot dimensions and restrictions: architectural, deeded, no commercial, no motorcycles, no RV
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Master HOA quarterly fee; Condo quarterly fee; Professional management; Community amenities include clubhouse, community pool and spa, exercise room, sauna, tennis and bocce courts, billiards, library, sidewalks, bike and jog path, picnic/BBQ area, and internet access; Maintenance covered: cable, insurance, internet/WiFi access, sewer, trash removal, water; Total annual recurring fees $7,268; One-time fees $150

Exterior

• Parking: 1 assigned parking space; Detached 1-car carport
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Water assessment paid; Sewer assessment paid; Cable available
• Home design: Residential low-rise (1–3 stories); Built in 1997; Condo in Huntington Lakes; Rear exposure faces north; Unit 204
• Construction: Concrete block construction
• Exterior features: Tile roof; Single-hung windows; Manual storm shutters; Stucco exterior; Lake view; Lake waterfront; Canal width 1–30; Zero lot line; End-unit

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator/Freezer
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with shower only
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Fire sprinkler system; Smoke detectors; Walk-in closet; Dining area open to living room; Den/study; Screened lanai/porch; Partially furnished; Split-bedroom floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer in residence

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $325k).
• Recommended offer: $296k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#692 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 586 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $187k; list at $325k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $295,750 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.67%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-40,989
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-48,594
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34119

• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 586
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,813 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$213 /mo · $2,553/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$606
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$801
• Net cashflow: $354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,365

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2469 Millcreek Ln #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1107	$3,495	$3.16	23d	1	0.02mi
2456 Millcreek Ln #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1107	$2,375	$2.15	23d	1	0.07mi
6655 Huntington Lakes Cir #204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1315	$3,500	$2.66	23d	1	0.09mi
2525 Aspen Creek Ln #101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1532	$4,500	$2.94	23d	1	0.11mi
2408 Millcreek Ln #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1207	$2,200	$1.82	23d	1	0.11mi
6544 Huntington Lakes Cir Unit 9-204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1382	$4,250	$3.08	23d	1	0.14mi
2740 Cypress Trace Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1493	$3,488	$2.34	23d	3	0.16mi
2730 Cypress Trace Cir Unit 2836A Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$2,000	$1.68	23d	1	0.16mi
2730 Cypress Trace Cir Unit 2836S Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$5,000	$4.19	23d	1	0.16mi
2730 Cypress Trace Cir Unit 1 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$5,500	$4.46	23d	1	0.16mi
6605 Huntington Lakes Cir #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1107	$2,400	$2.17	23d	1	0.20mi
2720 Cypress Trace Cir Naples, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1283	$5,300	$4.13	23d	3	0.22mi
2600 Marshcreek Ln #201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,595	$1.47	13d	1	0.23mi
2710 Cypress Trace Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1213	$3,425	$2.82	23d	2	0.25mi
2700 Cypress Trace Cir #3112 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$2,100	$1.70	23d	1	0.30mi
2790 Cypress Trace Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1537	$5,000	$3.25	23d	2	0.31mi
2820 Cypress Trace Cir Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1254	$3,748	$2.99	23d	3	0.32mi
10033 Heather Ln Unit 5-502 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1774	$2,300	$1.30	23d	1	0.33mi
6670 Huntington Lakes Cir #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1107	$4,000	$3.61	13d	1	0.33mi
6670 Huntington Lakes Cir #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1107	$4,250	$3.84	23d	1	0.33mi
6920 Huntington Lakes Cir #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1107	$2,700	$2.44	23d	1	0.35mi
2690 Cypress Trace Cir #3212 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$5,300	$4.30	23d	1	0.36mi
2835 Cypress Trace Cir Unit 1049710P Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$4,110	$3.29	13d	1	0.37mi
10020 Heather Ln Unit 9-904 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,350	$1.43	23d	1	0.38mi
2870 Cypress Trace Cir #1713 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1414	$2,900	$2.05	23d	1	0.38mi
2855 Cypress Trace Cir #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$4,800	$3.90	13d	1	0.40mi
2855 Cypress Trace Cir #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$2,000	$1.62	13d	1	0.40mi
2920 Cypress Trace Cir #204 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1625	$5,500	$3.38	23d	1	0.40mi
2880 Cypress Trace Cir #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1372	$5,500	$4.01	23d	1	0.41mi
2925 Cypress Trace Cir #201 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$4,500	$4.11	23d	1	0.44mi
2895 Cypress Trace Cir #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1232	$4,500	$3.65	23d	1	0.46mi
2895 Cypress Trace Cir #104 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1252	$4,800	$3.83	23d	1	0.46mi
6880 Huntington Lakes Cir #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1231	$3,750	$3.05	23d	1	0.49mi
11762 Quail Village Way Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	1800	$3,800	$2.11	23d	1	0.50mi
6750 Huntington Lakes Cir #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1185	$2,300	$1.94	21d	1	0.51mi
5693 Heron Ln #502 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1490	$6,800	$4.56	23d	1	0.55mi
5705 Heron Ln #806 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1540	$7,000	$4.55	23d	1	0.56mi
5657 Whisperwood Blvd #204 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1793	$6,000	$3.35	23d	1	0.60mi
5645 Whisperwood Blvd #504 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1793	$6,000	$3.35	23d	1	0.64mi
5632 Whisperwood Blvd #1601 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1856	$8,000	$4.31	23d	1	0.67mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $606 · $7,272/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $325,000 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $325,000 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $325,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Active 94 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Active 93 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,000 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $325,000 Active 85 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    price $325,000
17. 2026-03-06
    listed $345,000 Active
18. 2008-10-17
    soldstatus $187,000
19. 1997-06-10
    soldstatus $98,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,553 · $213/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,698 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: +$144/yr (+$12/mo · 5.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,758
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$2,553
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,661
• − Management: −$3,661
• − HOA: −$7,272
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$673
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$162
• After-tax cash flow: $4,408/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Island Walk

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #692
• US rank: #14444

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety D User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 36,807
• Household income: $113,391
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 741.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -243.12%
• Current HPI: 269.3208
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+229.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $325,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-06 Listed $345,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2008-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $187,000 Public Records
• 1997-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $98,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,553 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.