4512 Amesbury Dr · Dallas, TX 75206

$159,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 738 sqft · Condo public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1968

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This 1st floor condo renovation was finished in February 2026. New wood-look luxury LVP flooring was installed throughout the condo. The kitchen has new white shaker cabinets with new 3 cm quartz countertops, a new 9 & acirc; & euro; � deep stainless sink and new faucet, a new garbage disposal, and stainless steel appliances with a built-in microwave/vent combo. Recessed LED lighting was installed throughout the condo. The bathroom has a new tile bathtub enclosure, a new 60 & acirc; & euro; � dual-sink vanity with a quartz countertop, a new LED lighted mirror, and a new 1-piece toilet. New light fixtures, ceiling fans, & amp; blinds were installed throughout the condo. T

Key facts

• Built 1968
• Listed 23 days

Tags

• WOOD-LOOK LUXURY LVP FLOORING
• NEW WHITE SHAKER CABINETS
• NEW QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• RECESSED LED LIGHTING
• NEW TILE BATHTUB ENCLOSURE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 1968
• Construction: Living area approximately 738
• Exterior features: Located in the Northeast Dallas subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedrooms not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-230 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.3% in Dallas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#24 in TX, #1,380 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Dallas ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #559 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 330 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,501 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.15%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-43,039
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -43.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.48×
• Total profit: $-66,210
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75206

• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 330
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,613 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,643/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA est. from 2 same-building comps: −$462
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $-230

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,904

Max offer price $119,347

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4606 Amesbury Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	1088	$2,497	$2.29	2d	31	0.03mi
5808 Sandhurst Ln Dallas, TX	—	1.0	701	$1,098	$1.57	44d	1	0.09mi
4601 Amesbury Dr Dallas, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	968	$1,410	$1.46	2d	28	0.12mi
4646 Amesbury Dr Dallas, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1113	$1,520	$1.37	2d	34	0.16mi
5920 E University Blvd Unit 310 Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	595	$1,680	$2.82	3d	1	0.18mi
5920 E University Blvd Unit 410 Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	701	$1,700	$2.43	3d	1	0.18mi
5920 E University Blvd Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	912	$2,028	$2.22	2d	30	0.18mi
4670 Amesbury Dr Dallas, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1070	$1,505	$1.41	2d	26	0.23mi
5916 Birchbrook Dr Dallas, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	886	$1,600	$1.81	44d	2	0.30mi
5600 SMU Blvd Dallas, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	1007	$2,138	$2.12	2d	52	0.32mi
5065 Amesbury Dr Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0–2.5	1134	$2,104	$1.85	2d	24	0.40mi
5201 Amesbury Dr Dallas, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1019	$1,522	$1.49	2d	24	0.49mi
5207 Amesbury Dr Unit 470 Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	654	$1,360	$2.08	44d	1	0.50mi
6050 N Central Expy Dallas, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	954	$2,244	$2.35	2d	40	0.54mi
5555 E Mockingbird Ln Dallas, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$1,746	$1.75	2d	54	0.56mi
5561 E Mockingbird Ln Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	676	$1,640	$2.43	24d	1	0.56mi
6155 E Mockingbird Ln Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	734	$1,250	$1.70	15d	1	0.58mi
5337 E Mockingbird Ln Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	612	$1,493	$2.44	22d	1	0.73mi
5337 E Mockingbird Ln Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	612	$1,493	$2.44	44d	1	0.73mi
5757 Martel Ave Unit B05 Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	578	$1,295	$2.24	19d	1	0.80mi
3516 Matilda St Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	780	$1,362	$1.75	3d	3	0.85mi
5711 Morningside Ave Unit 101 Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	550	$1,600	$2.91	18d	1	0.98mi
8204 Southwestern Blvd Unit 8219 Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	651	$1,388	$2.13	15d	1	0.98mi
8204 Southwestern Blvd Unit 8246 Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	448	$1,070	$2.39	3d	1	0.98mi
8204 Southwestern Blvd Unit 412 Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	651	$1,383	$2.12	14d	1	0.98mi
8204 Southwestern Blvd Unit 8225 Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	651	$1,215	$1.87	3d	1	0.98mi
8204 Southwestern Blvd Unit 8225 Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	651	$1,383	$2.12	44d	1	0.98mi
8910 Southwestern Blvd Dallas, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	974	$1,472	$1.51	2d	30	1.09mi
8203 Southwestern Blvd Unit 412 Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	732	$1,387	$1.89	14d	1	1.10mi
8203 Southwestern Blvd Unit 8224 Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	534	$1,285	$2.41	3d	1	1.10mi
8203 Southwestern Blvd Unit 8224 Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	732	$1,387	$1.89	44d	1	1.10mi
8203 Southwestern Blvd Unit 8218 Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	732	$1,392	$1.90	15d	1	1.10mi
8616 Southwestern Blvd Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	733	$1,950	$2.66	19d	1	1.11mi
8616 Southwestern Blvd Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	733	$1,950	$2.66	44d	1	1.11mi
8612 Southwestern Blvd Unit 8633 Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	561	$1,321	$2.35	14d	1	1.11mi
8612 Southwestern Blvd Unit 8627 Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	561	$1,399	$2.49	3d	1	1.11mi
8612 Southwestern Blvd Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	561	$1,316	$2.35	14d	1	1.13mi
5605 Village Glen Dr Dallas, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	813	$1,217	$1.50	1d	1	1.15mi
8705 Southwestern Blvd Unit 8720 Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	722	$1,992	$2.76	15d	1	1.18mi
8705 Southwestern Blvd Unit 8720 Dallas, TX	1.0	1.0	722	$1,788	$2.48	3d	1	1.18mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: trash
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $159,900 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $159,900 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,900 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $159,900 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $159,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $159,900 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $159,900 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $159,900 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $159,900 Active 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $159,900 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $159,900 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $159,900 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-26
    listed $159,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,643 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,926 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,283/yr (+$107/mo · 78.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,360
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,643
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,549
• − Management: −$1,549
• − HOA: −$5,544
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$5,333
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,280
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,475/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dallas ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,881
• Composite: 28.41/100
• National rank: #6763
• State rank: #559 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dallas

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #1380

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dallas, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 1,168,437
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 38,909
• Household income: $91,023
• Rent vs Own: 73.0% rent · 27.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2983.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Asian 9% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -852.92%
• Current HPI: 302.4367
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.26%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $159,900 FSBO.com

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,643 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.