4138 Lily Glade · Seguin, TX 78155

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,510 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 4,791 sqft lot $132/sqft · 34% below area Est $302k · 34% under $50/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked into a quiet neighborhood with convenient access for an easy commute, 4138 Lily Glade Ln offers the best of both worlds... peaceful surroundings with quick access to shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. Inside, the home features a comfortable layout connecting the living, dining, and kitchen spaces, making everyday living and entertaining feel effortless. Large windows bring in natural light, giving the home a bright and inviting feel. The primary suite provides a relaxing retreat with its own private bath, while the additional bedrooms offer flexible space for guests, family, or a home office. Out back, the yard offers space to relax, grill, or enjoy a little fresh air. A quiet neighborhood feel paired with convenient access to major roads makes this home a great balance of comfort and convenience.

Key facts

• Large windows
• Flexible space
• Private bath

Tags

• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• COMFORTABLE LAYOUT
• LARGE WINDOWS
• PRIVATE BATH
• FLEXIBLE SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-220 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $160k (19.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $174k (12.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.7% in Seguin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Navarro ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #166 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Navarro El (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #1,006 of 4,322 statewide, top 25%, 702 students, 45% FRL); Navarro Int (math 50% / reading 44%, grade D+, #424 of 1,662 statewide, top 27%, 485 students, 40% FRL); Navarro H S (math 47% / reading 57%, grade D+, #447 of 1,632 statewide, top 29%, 648 students, 33% FRL) — zoned schools at 39% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1377 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($181k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,193 (19.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.73%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 9.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $302,123
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -34.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
304 Lazyglade Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,576 (+4%)	4mo	$249,790	$158	78
4029 Lily Glade Ln	0.21mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,619 (+7%)	3mo	$239,290	$148	69
308 Pacific Waters	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-2%)	4mo	$210,999	$143	68
316 Pacific Waters	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-2%)	4mo	$214,999	$146	68
316 Lazyglade Ln	0.24mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,619 (+7%)	3mo	$249,662	$154	67
332 Pacific Waters	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-2%)	4mo	$260,999	$177	66
344 Pacific Waters	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-2%)	4mo	$205,999	$140	65
4053 Bermuda Ln	0.33mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,619 (+7%)	1mo	$247,732	$153	65
240 Pacific Waters	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+10%)	4mo	$220,999	$133	50
304 Pacific Waters	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+10%)	4mo	$211,999	$127	50
328 Pacific Waters	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+10%)	4mo	$273,999	$164	48
340 Pacific Waters	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+10%)	4mo	$266,999	$160	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.14×
• Total profit: $-47,742
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-65,636
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1377
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,740 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$418 /mo · $5,013/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$365
• Net cashflow: $-220

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,018

Max offer price $160,193

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-107	-5% $-163	+0% $-220	+5% $-276	+10% $-332
Rent	-10% $-357	-5% $-288	+0% $-220	+5% $-151	+10% $-82
Rate	-1.0pp $-119	-0.5pp $-169	base $-220	+0.5pp $-271	+1.0pp $-324

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4105 Paddock Trl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1494	$1,625	$1.09	0d	1	0.11mi
4105 Paddock Trl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1494	$1,625	$1.09	3d	1	0.11mi
4153 Bermuda Ln Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1937	$1,995	$1.03	0d	1	0.37mi
3945 Far Horizon Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,721	$1.17	0d	1	0.39mi
3873 Far Horizon Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,853	$1.11	0d	1	0.50mi
3824 High Tide Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,545	$1.05	0d	1	0.61mi
3812 Far Horizon Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$1,825	$0.97	13d	1	0.64mi
3812 Far Horizon Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$1,825	$0.97	0d	1	0.64mi
205 Free Waters Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,549	$1.05	0d	1	0.67mi
249 Free Waters Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	0d	1	0.69mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $199,000 Pending 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $199,000 Active Option 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $199,000 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $199,000 Price Change 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $199,000 Price Change 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,000 Price Change 84 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,000 Price Change 83 DOM
8. 2026-04-07
   price $220,000 832-char remark

   Show marketing remark (832 chars)

   Tucked into a quiet neighborhood with convenient access for an easy commute, 4138 Lily Glade Ln offers the best of both worlds... peaceful surroundings with quick access to shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. Inside, the home features a comfortable layout connecting the living, dining, and kitchen spaces, making everyday living and entertaining feel effortless. Large windows bring in natural light, giving the home a bright and inviting feel. The primary suite provides a relaxing retreat with its own private bath, while the additional bedrooms offer flexible space for guests, family, or a home office. Out back, the yard offers space to relax, grill, or enjoy a little fresh air. A quiet neighborhood feel paired with convenient access to major roads makes this home a great balance of comfort and convenience.

9. 2026-03-09
   listed $230,000 New 832-char remark

   Show marketing remark (832 chars)

   Tucked into a quiet neighborhood with convenient access for an easy commute, 4138 Lily Glade Ln offers the best of both worlds... peaceful surroundings with quick access to shopping, dining, and everyday essentials. Inside, the home features a comfortable layout connecting the living, dining, and kitchen spaces, making everyday living and entertaining feel effortless. Large windows bring in natural light, giving the home a bright and inviting feel. The primary suite provides a relaxing retreat with its own private bath, while the additional bedrooms offer flexible space for guests, family, or a home office. Out back, the yard offers space to relax, grill, or enjoy a little fresh air. A quiet neighborhood feel paired with convenient access to major roads makes this home a great balance of comfort and convenience.

10. 2024-09-27
    historical $1,650
11. 2024-09-16
    historical
12. 2024-09-16
    historical
13. 2024-09-05
    listed $1,650
14. 2024-07-31
    price $260,000
15. 2024-07-31
    price $260,000
16. 2024-06-21
    price $263,000
17. 2024-06-20
    price $263,000
18. 2024-05-11
    price $270,000
19. 2024-05-10
    price $270,000
20. 2024-02-07
    listed $271,500 Active
21. 2024-02-05
    listed $271,500 New
22. 2022-03-31
    soldstatus Sold
23. 2022-01-31
    status Pending
24. 2022-01-21
    price $279,790
25. 2021-12-30
    price $277,490
26. 2021-11-18
    price $276,490
27. 2021-11-11
    listed $277,490 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,013 · $418/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,013 · $418/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$5,013
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,670
• − Management: −$1,670
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$6,005
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,441
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,195/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in a quiet neighborhood is in good condition with a good curb appeal. It offers a good investment opportunity with minor updates that can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Navarro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832160
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $66,008
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2996
• State rank: #166 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seguin, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• City population: 55,600
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1053.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.7% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $220,000 LERA
• 2026-03-09 Listed $230,000 LERA
• 2024-09-27 Rental Removed $1,650 CTXMLS
• 2024-09-16 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2024-09-16 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2024-09-05 Listed for Rent $1,650 CTXMLS
• 2024-07-31 Price Changed $260,000 LERA
• 2024-07-31 Price Changed $260,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-06-21 Price Changed $263,000 LERA
• 2024-06-20 Price Changed $263,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-05-11 Price Changed $270,000 LERA
• 2024-05-10 Price Changed $270,000 CTXMLS
• 2024-02-07 Listed $271,500 CTXMLS
• 2024-02-05 Listed $271,500 LERA
• 2022-03-31 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2022-01-31 Pending — LERA
• 2022-01-21 Price Changed $279,790 LERA
• 2021-12-30 Price Changed $277,490 LERA
• 2021-11-18 Price Changed $276,490 LERA
• 2021-11-11 Listed $277,490 LERA

Property tax history

+79.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $5,013 · -9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.