4680 Turner Rd · Willow Oak, FL 33860

$244,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · Manufactured public records · 57 Days on market

Built 1996 0.27 ac lot $10/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MULTIPLE OFFERS, HIGHEST AND BEST DUE BY TUESDAY OCTOBER 14TH @5:00 PM EST NO EXCEPTIONSOpportunity knocks with this as-is fixer upper, ideal for seasoned investors or buyers ready to take on a renovation project. Located in Mulberry the property offers solid bones and significant potential for transformation. This sale is strictly for cash buyers—no financing contingencies will be considered. All inspections must be completed prior to submitting, as no inspection period will be granted post-contract. Also no assignable offers or blind offers will be considered , and the seller is seeking a fast, clean closing. This is a rare chance to secure a property with upside potential at a competitive price point. Whether you're looking to flip, hold, or renovate, this one won’t last long. Serious inquiries only—please conduct all due diligence before submitting

Key facts

• Generous lot
• New carpet
• New ac system

Tags

• GENEROUS LOT
• NEW KITCHEN CABINETS
• UPDATED BATHROOMS
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• NEW CARPET
• NEW AC SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $278 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (1.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $238k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#579 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 180 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($238k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $245k implies a 158% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,553 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.86%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-25,379
• Equity at exit: $36,515

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-12,820
• Equity at exit: $21,174

Cash invested: $68,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33860

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,419 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,284
• Tax from tax record: −$237 /mo · $2,847/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,068

Max offer price $244,900

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,225
• Closing costs: $7,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-03
   price $244,900
3. 2026-03-25
   price $247,900
4. 2026-02-23
   listed $249,900 Active
5. 2025-10-31
   soldstatus $95,000
6. 2025-10-29
   soldstatus $95,000 Closed 882-char remark

   Show marketing remark (882 chars)

   MULTIPLE OFFERS, HIGHEST AND BEST DUE BY TUESDAY OCTOBER 14TH @5:00 PM EST NO EXCEPTIONSOpportunity knocks with this as-is fixer upper, ideal for seasoned investors or buyers ready to take on a renovation project. Located in Mulberry the property offers solid bones and significant potential for transformation. This sale is strictly for cash buyers—no financing contingencies will be considered. All inspections must be completed prior to submitting, as no inspection period will be granted post-contract. Also no assignable offers or blind offers will be considered , and the seller is seeking a fast, clean closing. This is a rare chance to secure a property with upside potential at a competitive price point. Whether you're looking to flip, hold, or renovate, this one won’t last long. Serious inquiries only—please conduct all due diligence before submitting

7. 2025-10-15
   status Pending 882-char remark

   Show marketing remark (882 chars)

   MULTIPLE OFFERS, HIGHEST AND BEST DUE BY TUESDAY OCTOBER 14TH @5:00 PM EST NO EXCEPTIONSOpportunity knocks with this as-is fixer upper, ideal for seasoned investors or buyers ready to take on a renovation project. Located in Mulberry the property offers solid bones and significant potential for transformation. This sale is strictly for cash buyers—no financing contingencies will be considered. All inspections must be completed prior to submitting, as no inspection period will be granted post-contract. Also no assignable offers or blind offers will be considered , and the seller is seeking a fast, clean closing. This is a rare chance to secure a property with upside potential at a competitive price point. Whether you're looking to flip, hold, or renovate, this one won’t last long. Serious inquiries only—please conduct all due diligence before submitting

8. 2025-10-12
   listed $99,000 Active 882-char remark

   Show marketing remark (882 chars)

   MULTIPLE OFFERS, HIGHEST AND BEST DUE BY TUESDAY OCTOBER 14TH @5:00 PM EST NO EXCEPTIONSOpportunity knocks with this as-is fixer upper, ideal for seasoned investors or buyers ready to take on a renovation project. Located in Mulberry the property offers solid bones and significant potential for transformation. This sale is strictly for cash buyers—no financing contingencies will be considered. All inspections must be completed prior to submitting, as no inspection period will be granted post-contract. Also no assignable offers or blind offers will be considered , and the seller is seeking a fast, clean closing. This is a rare chance to secure a property with upside potential at a competitive price point. Whether you're looking to flip, hold, or renovate, this one won’t last long. Serious inquiries only—please conduct all due diligence before submitting

9. 2000-02-08
   soldstatus $82,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,847 · $237/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,847 · $237/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,033
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,718
• − Property taxes: −$2,847
• − Insurance: −$1,224
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,323
• − Management: −$2,323
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$7,124
• Taxable loss: −$646
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$155
• After-tax cash flow: $3,488/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Willow Oak

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #579
• US rank: #11029

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willow Oak, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,892
• Household income: $65,710
• Rent vs Own: 30.7% rent · 69.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 583.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.08%
• Current HPI: 349.7266
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+198.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $244,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $247,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Listed $249,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2025-10-29 Sold (MLS) $95,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-15 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-12 Listed $99,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $82,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+69.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,847 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.