2947 Highland Lakes Dr · Missouri City, TX 77459

$275,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,798 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1984 6,359 sqft lot Est $282k · at est. $39/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 3 bedroom home with formal dining and game room/study. Kitchen is open to main living area and has stainless refrigerator, stainless appliances and granite countertops. Large Master bath has pocket door, enclosed glass shower tub. House has new paint throughout the interior and exterior along with new carpet. Washer & Dryer included. Front yard is nicely landscaped. Separate side yard with double gates to allow auto/boat/camper storage. Seller is a licensed real estate broker.

Key facts

• Insulation
• Pex pipes
• A/c

Tags

• PEX PIPES
• WATER HEATER
• A/C
• INSULATION
• WINDOWS
• EXTERIOR DOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Quail Valley Fund association; Community features: Golf; Association provides trash service; Association fee $470 annually

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Full ownership; Entry level: First floor
• Construction: Built in 1984; Brick and wood siding construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Near golf course; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (14x11); Bedroom on first floor (11x10); Bedroom on first floor (11x10); Office on first floor (14x10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Granite counters; Window treatments / coverings; Ceiling fans; Gas fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-184 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.5% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Quail Valley El (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 564 students, 64% FRL); Quail Valley Middle (math 55% / reading 57%, grade B-, #234 of 1,662 statewide, top 14%, 1,043 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 35% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($271k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,673 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.86%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $282,286
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4351 Palmer Plantation Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,846 (+3%)	1mo	$225,000	$122	78
4326 Palmer Plantation Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,846 (+3%)	8mo	$309,900	$168	76
4222 Palmer Plantation Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,797 (-0%)	22mo	$265,000	$147	71
2855 Lake View Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,599 (-11%)	11mo	$275,000	$172	65
2930 Highland Lakes Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	2,061 (+15%)	13mo	$325,000	$158	62
3918 Elm Glen Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,990 (+11%)	19mo	$305,000	$153	60
4314 Crow Valley Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,906 (+6%)	17mo	$299,900	$157	59
2815 Burning Tree Ln	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,955 (+9%)	14mo	$320,000	$164	53
4318 Crow Valley Dr	0.36mi	3/2.5	2,052 (+14%)	10mo	$299,900	$146	49
3439 Oyster Cove Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5	2,042 (+14%)	1mo	$309,000	$151	42
7335 Colony Bend Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	2,036 (+13%)	6mo	$339,900	$167	39
3507 Oyster Cove Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5	2,042 (+14%)	21mo	$289,900	$142	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-47,363
• Equity at exit: $57,675

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-68,263
• Equity at exit: $53,421

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,357 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$450 /mo · $5,396/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$39
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$495
• Net cashflow: $-184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,589

Max offer price $242,574

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3912 Cedar Valley Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	2151	$2,200	$1.02	21d	1	0.18mi
3611 Duncaster Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	1926	$2,100	$1.09	20d	1	0.91mi
3327 Shady Glen Ln Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2232	$2,250	$1.01	13d	1	1.11mi
3618 Quail Meadow Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,966	$1.22	44d	1	1.18mi
4340 Lake Walk Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.5	2100	$2,600	$1.24	22d	1	1.22mi
814 Hyacinth Pl Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2359	$2,500	$1.06	44d	1	1.22mi
2307 Hilton Head Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.0	2606	$2,239	$0.86	17d	1	1.29mi
4039 Mission Valley Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2364	$2,495	$1.06	22d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $39 · $468/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $275,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,396 · $450/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,396 · $450/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,281
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$5,396
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,262
• − Management: −$2,262
• − HOA: −$468
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$6,887
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,653
• After-tax cash flow: $-550/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 123,513
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+137.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2014-12-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-11-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2014-11-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-11-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-10-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2014-10-15 Price Changed $165,000 HARMLS
• 2014-09-22 Listed $169,000 HARMLS
• 2005-12-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2005-10-04 Listed $116,900 HARMLS
• 2005-01-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-10-17 Listed $116,000 HARMLS
• 2000-07-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,396 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.