Durant Plan · Seguin, TX 78155

$237,490

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,330 sqft · SingleFamily · 419 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Value-oriented families appreciate the versatility of the single-story Durant with its three bedrooms. A gourmet kitchen with a casual nook adjoining an inviting family room are ideal for family gatherings or entertaining guests.

Key facts

• Inviting family room
• Gourmet kitchen
• Garage

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• INVITING FAMILY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $237,490 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $272,091.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $237k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-488 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $202k (15.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (25.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#592 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Navarro ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #166 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1342 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,064 units permitted in Guadalupe County in 2024 (133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Guadalupe County population projected at +61% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 419 days — a 12% lower offer ($209k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,282 (25.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 419 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.68%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,091
• List price: $237,490
• Delta: -12.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4032 Lily Glade Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,330 (0%)	6mo	$244,075	$184	88
4060 Bermuda Ln	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,276 (-4%)	0mo	$226,090	$177	81
308 Lazyglade Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-10%)	4mo	$224,190	$186	72
4036 Lily Glade Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+14%)	5mo	$231,001	$153	66
312 Pacific Waters	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-5%)	5mo	$244,999	$194	64
324 Pacific Waters	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-5%)	4mo	$190,999	$152	64
216 Pacific Waters	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+11%)	6mo	$228,000	$155	56
308 Pacific Waters	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+11%)	4mo	$210,999	$143	55
316 Pacific Waters	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+11%)	4mo	$214,999	$146	55
244 Pacific Waters	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+11%)	5mo	$201,999	$137	55
332 Pacific Waters	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+11%)	4mo	$260,999	$177	54
344 Pacific Waters	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,474 (+11%)	4mo	$205,999	$140	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-76,815
• Equity at exit: $40,570

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.49×
• Total profit: $-113,569
• Equity at exit: $23,525

Cash invested: $76,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78155

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1342
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,763 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,427
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$340 /mo · $4,081/yr
• Insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $-488

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,380

Max offer price $201,515

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,023
• Closing costs: $8,163
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4105 Paddock Trl Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1494	$1,625	$1.09	1d	1	0.08mi
3945 Far Horizon Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,781	$1.21	1d	1	0.31mi
3873 Far Horizon Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,853	$1.11	1d	1	0.42mi
3824 High Tide Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,545	$1.05	1d	1	0.53mi
3812 Far Horizon Seguin, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$1,825	$0.97	10d	1	0.55mi
205 Free Waters Seguin, TX	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,549	$1.05	1d	1	0.58mi
249 Free Waters Seguin, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,800	$1.08	1d	1	0.61mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $237,490 Active 419 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $237,490 Active 418 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $237,490 Active 417 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $237,490 Active 416 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $237,490 Active 414 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $237,490 Active 413 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $237,490 Active 410 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $237,490 Active 409 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $237,490 Active 408 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $237,490 Active 405 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $237,490 Active 404 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $237,490 Active 403 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $237,490 Active 402 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $237,490 Active 401 DOM
15. 2026-03-26
    price $237,490 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    Value-oriented families appreciate the versatility of the single-story Durant with its three bedrooms. A gourmet kitchen with a casual nook adjoining an inviting family room are ideal for family gatherings or entertaining guests.

16. 2026-01-23
    price $236,490 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    Value-oriented families appreciate the versatility of the single-story Durant with its three bedrooms. A gourmet kitchen with a casual nook adjoining an inviting family room are ideal for family gatherings or entertaining guests.

17. 2025-07-02
    price $235,990 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    Value-oriented families appreciate the versatility of the single-story Durant with its three bedrooms. A gourmet kitchen with a casual nook adjoining an inviting family room are ideal for family gatherings or entertaining guests.

18. 2025-04-26
    listed $234,990 Active 229-char remark

    Show marketing remark (229 chars)

    Value-oriented families appreciate the versatility of the single-story Durant with its three bedrooms. A gourmet kitchen with a casual nook adjoining an inviting family room are ideal for family gatherings or entertaining guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,154
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,241
• − Property taxes: −$4,081
• − Insurance: −$1,360
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,692
• − Management: −$1,692
• − Depreciation: −$7,915
• Taxable loss: −$10,829
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,599
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,254/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Navarro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832160
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $66,008
• Composite: 43.49/100
• National rank: #2996
• State rank: #166 of 826 in TX

Livability — Seguin

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #11298

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Seguin, TX
• County: Guadalupe County · 147,291 people
• City population: 55,600
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 55,600
• Household income: $71,039
• Rent vs Own: 27.5% rent · 72.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1053.0

Population outlook (Guadalupe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 196,854 people
• By 2030: 220,210 · +11.9%
• By 2040: 268,004 · +36.1%
• By 2050: 316,333 · +60.7%
• By 2075: 434,747 · +120.8%
• By 2100: 520,447 · +164.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 43% Two or more races 26% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 24% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Guadalupe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.5) · D 34.8% · R 64.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.5pp toward D · 2008: -31.0pp · 2024: -29.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.5 2020: R+24.2 2016: R+31.8 2012: R+35.1 2008: R+31.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -147.43%
• Current HPI: 160.5435
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $237,490 Zillow
• 2026-01-23 Price Changed $236,490 Zillow
• 2025-07-02 Price Changed $235,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-26 Listed $234,990 Zillow