25 Revilo Ave · Shirley, NY 11967

$314,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,228 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1945 0.49 ac lot $141/sqft · 49% below area Est $617k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious corner property nestled on a estimated half-acre of land on a dead end street is ready for a new owner to personalize and enhance its appeal. Exceptionally a rare find Long Island property, it features three bedrooms, two bathrooms, an open-concept kitchen, a separate dining room, a full basement, and an attached two-car garage. This sturdy brick Cape Cod-style home offers abundant natural light and ample storage space above the garage. Enjoy a basement walkout, and convenient access—just four minutes from shopping, dining, and everything you need for a comfortable lifestyle.

Key facts

• Open-concept kitchen
• Separate dining room
• Half-acre of land

Tags

• CORNER PROPERTY
• HALF-ACRE OF LAND
• DEAD END STREET
• OPEN-CONCEPT KITCHEN
• SEPARATE DINING ROOM
• FULL BASEMENT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $315k).
• Recommended offer: $305k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.8% vs local median 4.8% in Shirley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#886 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 183 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $88k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $114k; list at $315k implies a 177% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $305,453 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.78%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $616,964
• List price: $314,900
• Delta: -48.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $41,859
• Equity at exit: $46,953

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $156,978
• Equity at exit: $27,227

Cash invested: $88,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11967

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,119 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,651
• Tax from tax record: −$808 /mo · $9,700/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,075
• Net cashflow: $1,453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,280

Max offer price $314,900

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,725
• Closing costs: $9,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
42 Revilo Ave Shirley, NY	3.0	2.0	2670	$5,000	$1.87	24d	1	0.10mi
357 Smith Rd Shirley, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$6,500	$3.25	3d	1	0.70mi
14 Titmus Dr Mastic, NY	4.0	1.0	1428	$3,800	$2.66	44d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-18
   listed $314,900 Active 604-char remark

   Show marketing remark (604 chars)

   This spacious corner property nestled on a estimated half-acre of land on a dead end street is ready for a new owner to personalize and enhance its appeal. Exceptionally a rare find Long Island property, it features three bedrooms, two bathrooms, an open-concept kitchen, a separate dining room, a full basement, and an attached two-car garage. This sturdy brick Cape Cod-style home offers abundant natural light and ample storage space above the garage. Enjoy a basement walkout, and convenient access—just four minutes from shopping, dining, and everything you need for a comfortable lifestyle.

2. 1999-09-09
   soldstatus $113,500
3. 1988-02-18
   soldstatus $126,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $9,700 · $808/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,700 · $808/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $61,430
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,639
• − Property taxes: −$9,700
• − Insurance: −$1,574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,914
• − Management: −$4,914
• − Depreciation: −$9,161
• Taxable income: $13,526
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,246
• After-tax cash flow: $14,192/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Shirley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #886
• US rank: #17184

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shirley, NY
• City population: 27,266
• Population (ZIP): 27,266

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.21%
• Current HPI: 428.8362
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+149.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Listed $314,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-09-09 Sold (Public Records) $113,500 Public Records
• 1988-02-18 Sold (Public Records) $126,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,700 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.