103 Cox Rd · Irvine, KY 40336

$74,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · SingleFamily · 4 Days on market

Built 1981 Fair condition 0.75 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.75 acre lot
• Built 1981
• Listed 3 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; No sewer service
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; 720 total building area
• Exterior features: Pillar/post/pier foundation

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 total rooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced air heating; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Carpet and vinyl flooring; No fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $105 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($789 rent vs $75k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#254 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Estill County (rural): math 19% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #146 of 165 in KY (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: West Irvine Elementary (math 20% / reading 31%, grade F, #477 of 676 statewide, top 71%, 468 students, 69% FRL); Estill County Middle School (math 17% / reading 34%, grade F, #181 of 217 statewide, top 84%, 446 students, 70% FRL); Estill County High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 644 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: 120 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Estill County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $74,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.03%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-5,417
• Equity at exit: $11,168

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $3,970
• Equity at exit: $6,476

Cash invested: $20,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40336

• Home prices YoY: -10.5%
• Active inventory: 120
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $789 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,124/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$166
• Net cashflow: $105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $655

Max offer price $74,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $157	-5% $131	+0% $105	+5% $79	+10% $54
Rent	-10% $43	-5% $74	+0% $105	+5% $136	+10% $168
Rate	-1.0pp $143	-0.5pp $124	base $105	+0.5pp $86	+1.0pp $66

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,725
• Closing costs: $2,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $74,900 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,900 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,900 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   listed $74,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,462
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,196
• − Property taxes: −$1,124
• − Insurance: −$374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$757
• − Management: −$757
• − Depreciation: −$2,179
• Taxable income: $76
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$18
• After-tax cash flow: $1,246/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate renovations, including landscaping, exterior updates, and kitchen improvements, to increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Landscaping — Overgrown vegetation and debris
• Moderate Exterior siding — Weathered siding
• Minor Kitchen appliances — Outdated and cluttered

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal
• Resale Replace windows — New windows improve energy efficiency and appearance
• Both Replace kitchen appliances — Modern appliances increase both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · Overgrown vegetation and debris	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · Weathered siding	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Kitchen appliances · Outdated and cluttered	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$18,500–68,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace windows — New windows improve energy efficiency and appearance ↑
• Both Replace kitchen appliances — Modern appliances increase both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Estill County
• NCES district ID: 2101760
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $29,324
• Composite: 20.86/100
• National rank: #8498
• State rank: #146 of 165 in KY

Livability — Irvine

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #12740

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,650

Population outlook (Estill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,588 people
• By 2030: 13,086 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 12,012 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 10,928 · -19.6%
• By 2075: 8,646 · -36.4%
• By 2100: 6,689 · -50.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3% Asian 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Estill

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.2) · D 17.7% · R 81.0% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.1pp toward R · 2008: -40.1pp · 2024: -63.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.2 2020: R+57.3 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+46.2 2008: R+40.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.66%
• Current HPI: 219.2756
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $74,900 ImagineMLS