38 Carriage Path N #38 · Milford, CT 06460

$229,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · Condo · 1 Days on market

Built 1971 $543/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

End of the complex - private rear yard- remodeled kitchen -with new cabinets - 2 full baths - finished lower level- new heat, hot water - newer ac unit- additional 558 sq. Ft. Basement

Key facts

• Private deck
• Hardwood flooring
• Finish lower level

Tags

• PRIVATE DECK
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• FINISH LOWER LEVEL
• FULL BATH WITH STAND UP SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Part of a 221-unit community; Located in a flood zone; Nearby amenities include basketball court, park, playground/tot lot, shopping/mall, and walk-to-bus lines
• Financial info: Professionally managed off-site; Pets allowed: one dog or one cat by owners
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee; HOA covers grounds maintenance, trash pickup, snow removal, property management, road maintenance, and flood insurance

Exterior

• Parking: Parking lot with two unassigned spaces (plus street visitor spots available)
• Utilities: Public water connected; Public sewer connected
• Home design: Condominium townhouse; Located in South Wind Village; Grey and brick exterior color
• Construction: Frame and brick construction
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding and brick exterior; Deck; Sidewalk; Treed, level lot; Walkable to water

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms (unit spans multiple levels)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot air heating powered by natural gas; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Central air conditioning; Full basement with concrete floor offering storage and additional liveable space; Three-level unit; Five total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on lower level; 40-gallon hot water tank

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13 ($-160/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (0.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $230k).
• Recommended offer: $228k (0.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Milford School District (urban): math 44% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #73 of 153 in CT (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Orchard Hills School (math 37% / reading 57%, grade D-, #256 of 553 statewide, top 48%, 347 students, 22% FRL); East Shore Middle School (math 43% / reading 56%, grade C, #79 of 175 statewide, top 45%, 382 students, 23% FRL); Joseph A. Foran High School (math 47% / reading 67%, grade C, #52 of 194 statewide, top 31%, 765 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 182 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,059 units permitted in South Central Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (779 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($104k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $195k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.

Recommended offer $227,973 (0.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.25%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-39,896
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-43,065
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06460

• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,682 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$287 /mo · $3,448/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$543
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$563
• Net cashflow: $-13

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,698

Max offer price $227,973

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $146	-5% $66	+0% $-13	+5% $-93	+10% $-172
Rent	-10% $-225	-5% $-119	+0% $-13	+5% $93	+10% $199
Rate	-1.0pp $102	-0.5pp $45	base $-13	+0.5pp $-73	+1.0pp $-133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
185 Melba St Milford, CT	1.0	1.0	827	$2,225	$2.69	45d	2	0.22mi
59 Melba St Milford, CT	3.0	1.5	1186	$3,500	$2.95	13d	1	0.41mi
27 Melba St Unit B Milford, CT	3.0	1.0	1008	$2,799	$2.78	45d	1	0.47mi
18 Melba St Milford, CT	2.0	1.0	702	$2,200	$3.13	4d	1	0.47mi
17 W Orland St Milford, CT	3.0	1.0	1004	$3,999	$3.98	45d	1	0.54mi
42 Whalley Ave Milford, CT	3.0	1.0	958	$2,500	$2.61	23d	1	0.72mi
42 Whalley Ave Milford, CT	3.0	1.0	958	$2,500	$2.61	4d	1	0.72mi
54 Milesfield Ave Milford, CT	3.0	1.0	1056	$2,000	$1.89	4d	1	0.78mi
32 Lawrence Ave Milford, CT	3.0	1.5	1120	$3,200	$2.86	4d	1	0.93mi
1080 New Haven Ave #91 Milford, CT	2.0	1.5	963	$2,300	$2.39	4d	1	1.31mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $543 · $6,516/yr
• Likely covers: water
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   listed $229,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,179
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$3,448
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,574
• − Management: −$2,574
• − HOA: −$6,516
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$3,649
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$876
• After-tax cash flow: $716/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Milford School District
• NCES district ID: 0902520
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $80,198
• Composite: 46.45/100
• National rank: #2444
• State rank: #73 of 153 in CT

Livability — Milford

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Milford city (balance), CT
• County: New Haven County · 688,236 people
• City population: 52,684
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• Population (ZIP): 37,649
• Household income: $104,360
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1254.0

Population outlook (South Central Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 608,362

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · South Central Connecticut

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.1) · D 59.0% · R 38.9% · Other 2.1%
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -396.40%
• Current HPI: 287.7738
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.19%
• Metro: New Haven-Milford, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+6.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-21 Listed $229,900 Smart MLS
• 2008-05-27 Sold (MLS) $195,400 Smart MLS
• 2007-12-12 Listed $194,900 Smart MLS
• 2005-04-29 Sold (MLS) $243,000 Smart MLS
• 2005-04-29 Sold (MLS) $243,000 Smart MLS
• 2005-02-23 Listed $249,900 Smart MLS
• 2005-02-23 Listed $249,900 Smart MLS
• 2003-12-19 Sold (MLS) $216,000 Smart MLS
• 2003-12-19 Sold (MLS) $216,000 Smart MLS
• 2003-10-23 Listed $215,500 Smart MLS
• 2003-10-23 Listed $215,500 Smart MLS