1011-1015 Powell St · San Francisco, CA 94108

$1,400,000

4 bd · None ba · 4,386 sqft · MultiFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 1908 Good condition 1,576 sqft lot Est $2697k · 48% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

Located in one of San Francisco's most iconic corridors, 1011-1015 Powell Street offers a premier mixed-use investment or owner-user opportunity. This versatile 4,386 SF building will be delivered 100% vacant, providing immediate occupancy flexibility. It perfectly balances urban utility with commercial storefront and two residential flats on a 1,576 SF lot. Situated at the crossroads of Nob Hill and Chinatown, the property enjoys high foot traffic and immediate proximity to the city's historic cable car lines, world-class dining, and vibrant cultural landmarks. The building includes prime owner-user opportunity with vacant retail on the ground floor, allowing a buyer to occupy or lease the

Key facts

• Residential flats
• Immediate proximity
• High foot traffic

Tags

• MIXED-USE INVESTMENT
• COMMERCIAL STOREFRONT
• RESIDENTIAL FLATS
• HIGH FOOT TRAFFIC
• IMMEDIATE PROXIMITY
• VACANT RETAIL

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Three total units (all currently vacant); Income details by unit: one retail unit listed at $4,100 and two 2-bedroom flats listed at $4,650 (per unit)
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential income property (mixed-use triplex)
• Construction: Built in 1908
• Exterior features: Regular-shaped lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total of 4 bedrooms across units
• Interior features: Fixer/needs renovation; Original condition

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/?-bath multifamily listed at $1.40M. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $405 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.28M (8.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.28M (8.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.1% in San Francisco — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in CA, #3,143 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• San Francisco Unified (urban): math 50% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #322 of 1,400 in CA (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.3%/yr); 28 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 750 units permitted in San Francisco County in 2024 (688 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $12,759/mo this rent would consume 234% of the median local household income ($65k/yr) (locally 1314% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $98k of equity ($10k loan paydown + $88k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• San Francisco County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $392k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$156k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.38M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1908 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $1,275,900 (8.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1908 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.24%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $2,697,390
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1011-1015 Powell St	0.00mi	4/—	4,386 (0%)	1mo	$1,525,000	$348	99
1341-1343 Green St	0.67mi	4/3.0	4,222 (-4%)	13mo	$2,595,000	$615	52
1256 Bush St	0.56mi	3/4.0 (-1)	4,673 (+6%)	10mo	$1,360,000	$291	49
392-394 Chestnut St	0.71mi	5/3.0 (+1)	3,749 (-14%)	4mo	$4,180,000	$1,115	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.29% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $521,876
• Equity at exit: $905,927

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.28×
• Total profit: $1,676,526
• Equity at exit: $1,665,622

Cash invested: $392,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Francisco: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+57

SF Rent Ordinance + Eviction Protections; relocation $10k+; one of strictest in US.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94108

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Rents YoY: 14.3%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 27.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $12,759 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$7,342
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,750 /mo · $21,000/yr
• Insurance: −$583
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,679
• Net cashflow: $405

Break-even live

Break-even rent $12,247

Max offer price $1,400,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,372	-5% $888	+0% $405	+5% $-79	+10% $-563
Rent	-10% $-603	-5% $-99	+0% $405	+5% $909	+10% $1,412
Rate	-1.0pp $1,110	-0.5pp $761	base $405	+0.5pp $42	+1.0pp $-327

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	2	1	$12,759
Total (3 units)			$12,759

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $350,000
• Closing costs: $42,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
— San Francisco, CA	5.0	4.5	3100	$29,990	$9.67	8d	1	0.27mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   listed $1,400,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $153,108
• − Mortgage interest: −$78,422
• − Property taxes: −$21,000
• − Insurance: −$7,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$12,249
• − Management: −$12,249
• − Depreciation: −$40,727
• Taxable loss: −$18,538
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,449
• After-tax cash flow: $9,303/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 None rehab

This multi-family property in San Francisco's iconic Powell Street area is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. It offers a prime investment opportunity with immediate occupancy flexibility and high foot traffic, making it suitable for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the property's visual appeal and can attract more buyers or renters.
• Both Interior updates such as fresh paint and minor repairs — Improves the property's aesthetic and can increase its value.
• Both HVAC system inspection and maintenance — Ensures the HVAC system is functioning properly and can improve the property's comfort and energy efficiency.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the property's visual appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Interior updates such as fresh paint and minor repairs — Improves the property's aesthetic and can increase its value. ↑
• Both HVAC system inspection and maintenance — Ensures the HVAC system is functioning properly and can improve the property's comfort and energy efficiency. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Francisco Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634410
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $81,249
• Composite: 50.14/100
• National rank: #4088
• State rank: #322 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Francisco

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3143

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Francisco, CA
• County: San Francisco County · 827,552 people
• City population: 827,552
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 11,305
• Household income: $65,388
• Rent vs Own: 89.1% rent · 10.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1314.0

Population outlook (San Francisco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,030,936 people
• By 2030: 1,110,409 · +7.7%
• By 2040: 1,270,010 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 1,435,001 · +39.2%
• By 2075: 1,779,074 · +72.6%
• By 2100: 1,966,767 · +90.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 53% White 30% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 51% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Chinese 42% Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · San Francisco

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.8) · D 80.3% · R 15.5% · Other 4.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.7pp toward R · 2008: 70.5pp · 2024: 64.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.8 2020: D+72.5 2016: D+76.1 2012: D+70.2 2008: D+70.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.29%
• Current HPI: 172.8561
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.33%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — San Francisco MLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $1,400,000 San Francisco MLS