650 Maria Elena Way · Cleveland, TX 77327

$165,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,402 sqft · SingleFamily · 35 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Houston El Norte Property Association; Annual association fee of $120

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Has heating; Has cooling
• Home design: Residential property; Slab foundation; One-story layout (entry level: first floor)
• Construction: Built in 2026; Cement siding construction
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (14 x 15); Bedroom on the first floor (12 x 11); Bedroom on the first floor (11 x 12)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Under construction (new construction)

🏗️ New construction. The $165,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $175,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $166k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $39 ($468/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (3.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.7% in Cleveland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Southside El (math 17% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,759 of 4,322 statewide, top 88%, 905 students, 95% FRL); Cleveland Middle (math 22% / reading 25%, grade F, #1,317 of 1,662 statewide, top 80%, 1,696 students, 98% FRL); Cleveland H S (math 30% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 3,310 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 71% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($161k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $160,159 (3.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.95%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $175,990
• List price: $165,990
• Delta: -5.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
666 Maria Elena Way	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	1mo	$181,990	$130	99
674 Maria Elena Way	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,402 (0%)	1mo	$179,990	$128	99
393 Lucia Way	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,375 (-2%)	1mo	$170,990	$124	91
405 Lucia Way	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,375 (-2%)	1mo	$170,990	$124	91
678 Maria Elena Way	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,266 (-10%)	2mo	$178,990	$141	82
390 Lucia Way	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,208 (-14%)	1mo	$172,990	$143	76
386 Lucia Way	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,192 (-15%)	1mo	$163,990	$138	74
677 Maria Elena Way	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+14%)	0mo	$190,990	$119	71
662 Maria Elena Way	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+14%)	1mo	$192,990	$121	71
106 Jordan Ave	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,502 (+7%)	2mo	$145,000	$97	58
803 Hays St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-14%)	6mo	$125,000	$104	56
605 Arvon St	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,260 (-10%)	1mo	$82,200	$65	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-24,374
• Equity at exit: $26,241

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-11,085
• Equity at exit: $15,216

Cash invested: $49,277 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,602 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$923
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$220 /mo · $2,640/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $39

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,552

Max offer price $175,990

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,998
• Closing costs: $5,280
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
309 Johnson ST Unit J Cleveland, TX	4.0	1.0	1346	$1,350	$1.00	7d	1	0.04mi
511 S Roosevelt Ave Cleveland, TX	3.0	1.0	960	$1,600	$1.67	43d	1	0.39mi
700 Lyle West Ave Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,195	$1.11	1d	1	0.66mi
909 Jefferson Ave Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,870	$1.17	1d	1	0.86mi
1018 Green Ave Cleveland, TX	4.0	2.0	1337	$1,500	$1.12	21d	1	0.96mi
201 Pine Bend Ct Cleveland, TX	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,200	$1.15	43d	1	0.98mi
1301 Nevell St Cleveland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	827	$1,255	$1.52	1d	4	1.02mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,990 Active 35 DOM

   Show marketing remark (419 chars)

   This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

2. 2026-06-17
   price $165,990 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $177,290 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $177,290 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $177,290 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $177,290 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $177,290 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $177,290 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $177,290 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $177,290 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $177,290 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $177,290 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $177,290 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $177,290 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-14
    listed $179,990 Active 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

16. 2026-05-14
    price $179,990 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

17. 2026-05-14
    listed $181,990 Active 545-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,219
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,858
• − Property taxes: −$2,640
• − Insurance: −$880
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,538
• − Management: −$1,538
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$5,120
• Taxable loss: −$2,474
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$594
• After-tax cash flow: $1,062/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 24 photos

Good 85/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home in the Santa Fe Village Community is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is ready for immediate occupancy and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint on the exterior to enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps home in good condition

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps home in good condition ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cleveland, TX
• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $165,990 Zillow
• 2026-06-17 Price Changed $165,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $177,290 Zillow
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $177,290 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $179,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $179,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $181,990 HARMLS