403 S Shady Shores Rd · Shady Shores, TX 76208

$150,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 796 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1969 0.48 ac lot $188/sqft · at area comps Est $150k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity to own a beautiful . 48-acre lakeside parcel near Lake Lewisville backing directly to U. S. Army Corps of Engineers property for added privacy and a natural backdrop. This heavily wooded lot is being sold for land value only. The existing home has a partial roof collapse and adds no contributory value, property is being sold as-is. Surrounded by mature trees and natural beauty, this nearly half-acre property offers an ideal setting to design and build your custom lakeside retreat. Enjoy the peaceful setting while still being conveniently located near I-35 with easy access to Denton and Lewisville for shopping, dining, and entertainment. Whether you're looking to build now

Key facts

• Lakeside parcel
• Heavily wooded lot
• Easy access to i-35

Tags

• LAKESIDE PARCEL
• HEAVILY WOODED LOT
• MATURE TREES
• CUSTOM LAKESIDE RETREAT
• PEACEFUL SETTING
• EASY ACCESS TO I-35

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Deed restrictions; Lot under 0.5 acre (approx. 0.48 acre); Will not subdivide
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage; Cash offers considered
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with gravel surface; No garage or covered/carport spaces
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity available; Individual water meter; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Not attached to another property
• Construction: Built in 1969; Wood construction; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Exterior features: Chain link and wood fencing; Wooded vegetation; Utilities easement

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas Range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first level; Total of 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: One living area; Two total rooms; Other interior details
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 1.9% in Shady Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#278 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake Dallas ISD (suburban): math 34% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #413 of 826 in TX (top 50%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Shady Shores El (math 27% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,464 of 4,322 statewide, top 58%, 591 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 279 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.13%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,000
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
403 S Shady Shores Rd	0.00mi	2/1.0	796 (0%)	1mo	$150,000	$188	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-12,546
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-6,518
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76208

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 279
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,563 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,635/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,247

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
300 E Swisher Rd Lake Dallas, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1037	$1,727	$1.67	2d	8	0.96mi
3150 Garrison Rd Corinth, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1024	$1,630	$1.59	2d	18	1.16mi
3156 S Garrison Rd Unit 2016 Corinth, TX	1.0	1.0	1030	$1,045	$1.01	43d	1	1.23mi
3156 S Garrison Rd Unit 2016 Corinth, TX	1.0	1.0	1030	$1,045	$1.01	20d	1	1.23mi
3300 S Garrison Rd Corinth, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1006	$1,752	$1.74	1d	34	1.32mi
6651 S Interstate 35 E Denton, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	982	$1,874	$1.91	43d	15	1.34mi
3306 S Garrison Rd Corinth, TX	3.0	2.0	659	$2,005	$3.04	24d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-11
   status Pending 800-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $150,000 Active 800-char remark
3. 2026-04-16
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,635 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,110/yr (+$93/mo · 67.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 24% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,756
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,635
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,501
• − Management: −$1,501
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $605
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$145
• After-tax cash flow: $2,848/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Dallas ISD
• NCES district ID: 4826430
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $76,645
• Composite: 34.13/100
• National rank: #5287
• State rank: #413 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shady Shores

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #278
• US rank: #6308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shady Shores, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,025
• Household income: $88,967
• Rent vs Own: 33.3% rent · 66.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 15% Black 12% Asian 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Portuguese 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 18% Chinese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.64%
• Current HPI: 244.3487
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.31%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-05-22 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2026-05-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $150,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,635 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.