12100 Melville Dr #3 · Conroe, TX 77356

$116,700

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 662 sqft · Condo public records · 157 Days on market

Built 1979 Good condition $176/sqft · 23% below area Est $152k · 23% under $236/mo HOA · 19% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Live in this beautiful updated condo, in a lakefront quiet condo community. Ground floor, private patio with Marina/Lake view. Condo is furnished, including plants! This home has been completely updated from vinyl window to ceiling fans. Dark wood like, tile floors, walk in shower.

Key facts

• Lakefront
• Updated condo
• Marina view

Tags

• LAKEFRONT
• PRIVATE PATIO
• MARINA VIEW
• UPDATED CONDO
• WALK IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $117k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-65 ($-779/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $105k (9.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $117k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: schools D+, commute F, health & safety F.
• Montgomery ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #49 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 1056 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $807 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 157 days — a 12% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $102,696 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 157 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
11. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
12. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
13. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
14. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
15. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.38%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,035
• List price: $116,700
• Delta: -23.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-26,492
• Equity at exit: $17,400

10-year hold

• IRR: -38.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.28×
• Total profit: $-41,682
• Equity at exit: $10,090

Cash invested: $32,676 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77356

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 1056
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,231 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$612
• Tax from tax record: −$141 /mo · $1,688/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$236
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $-65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,313

Max offer price $105,230

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,175
• Closing costs: $3,501
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13151 Walden Rd Montgomery, TX	1.0	1.0	521	$959	$1.84	2d	1	1.12mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $236 · $2,832/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $116,700 Active 157 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $116,700 Active 156 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $116,700 Active 155 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $116,700 Active 154 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $116,700 Active 152 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $116,700 Active 151 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on market $116,700 Active 148 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   remarks 343-char remark
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $121,500 Active 147 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $121,500 Active 146 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $121,500 Active 143 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $121,500 Active 142 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $121,500 Active 141 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $121,500 Active 140 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $121,500 Active 139 DOM
16. 2026-04-17
    price $121,500 282-char remark

    Show marketing remark (282 chars)

    Live in this beautiful updated condo, in a lakefront quiet condo community. Ground floor, private patio with Marina/Lake view. Condo is furnished, including plants! This home has been completely updated from vinyl window to ceiling fans. Dark wood like, tile floors, walk in shower.

17. 2026-01-12
    listed $127,900 Active 282-char remark

    Show marketing remark (282 chars)

    Live in this beautiful updated condo, in a lakefront quiet condo community. Ground floor, private patio with Marina/Lake view. Condo is furnished, including plants! This home has been completely updated from vinyl window to ceiling fans. Dark wood like, tile floors, walk in shower.

18. 2019-10-14
    soldstatus
19. 2018-09-04
    soldstatus
20. 2016-06-22
    soldstatus
21. 2006-05-30
    soldstatus
22. 1989-09-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,688 · $141/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,136 · $178/mo
• Expected delta: +$448/yr (+$37/mo · 26.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,770
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,537
• − Property taxes: −$1,688
• − Insurance: −$584
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,182
• − Management: −$1,182
• − HOA: −$2,832
• − Depreciation: −$3,395
• Taxable loss: −$2,629
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$631
• After-tax cash flow: $-148/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This updated condo is in good condition with cosmetic improvements, ready for move-in.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery ISD
• NCES district ID: 4831260
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $75,596
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1445
• State rank: #49 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,583
• Household income: $106,804
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 414.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.28%
• Current HPI: 233.0032
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $121,500 HARMLS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $127,900 HARMLS
• 2019-10-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-09-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-06-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-05-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1989-09-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records